Dodgers vs Astros Odds, Lines, and Spread – July 28
By Jordan Horrobin in MLB Baseball
Updated: March 5, 2021 at 11:51 am ESTPublished:
- Prominent Cy Young candidate Walker Buehler makes his 2020 debut for the Dodgers against the Astros on Tuesday at 9:10 p.m. ET in Houston
- This series is a rematch of the 2017 World Series, in which the Astros won in seven games
- Find the odds, matchup analysis and a pick for the game in the article below
Cy Young candidate Walker Buehler toes the rubber for the first time in the 2020 season on Tuesday at 9:10 p.m. ET, when his Dodgers head to Houston to take on the Astros.
The Dodgers were off Monday, while the Astros closed a four-game set versus the Seattle Mariners with an 8-5 win.
With the extra night of rest, LA opened as -140 favorites in the Dodgers vs Astros odds.
Dodgers vs Astros July 28th Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Runline | Over/Under Run Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers | -140 | -1.5 (+108) | Over 8.5 (-115) |
| Houston Astros | +122 | +1.5 (-126) | Under 8.5 (-105) |
Odds taken July 28th
Valdez Represents Veritable Unknown
The Astros will send Framber Valdez to the mound to counter Buehler on Tuesday. Not only is Valdez inexperienced as a starter (13 career starts), he has worked exactly one at-bat against the entire Dodgers lineup.
Dodgers Career Stats vs Valdez
| Player | AB | HR | RBI | AVG. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mookie Betts | 1 | 0 | 0 | .000 |
| Justin Turner | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 |
| Cody Bellinger | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 |
| Max Muncy | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 |
| Kike Hernandez | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 |
| Joc Pederson | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 |
| Austin Barnes | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 |
| AJ Pollock | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 |
| Corey Seager | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 |
| Will Smith | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 |
That’s because Valdez debuted in late August of 2018, a few weeks after the Astros and Dodgers wrapped up a three-game series (won 2-1 by Houston). The two teams haven’t faced each other since.
Usually a fresh matchup between pitcher and hitter favors the pitcher, as hitters must acclimate to things like delivery motion, release point and pitch mix. But with the amount of video and data available in modern baseball, the advantage is nebulous.
https://twitter.com/GarneauDoubter/status/1283860061119483905?s=20
More important is the fact that Valdez struggled in 2019, his first full season. He had a 5.86 ERA in 70.2 innings. Walks are a major issue too, as he has issued 5.7 walks per nine innings so far in his career.
Astros Career Stats vs Buehler
| Player | AB | HR | RBI | AVG. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jose Altuve | 1 | 0 | 0 | .000 |
| Alex Bregman | 2 | 0 | 0 | .500 |
| Carlos Correa | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 |
| Yuli Gurriel | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 |
| Michael Brantley | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 |
| Josh Reddick | 3 | 0 | 0 | .000 |
| George Springer | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.000 |
| Martin Maldonado | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 |
| Myles Straw | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 |
| Abraham Toro | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 |
Buehler Looks to Build on 2019
Speaking of pitchers and hitters who aren’t well acquainted, Buehler has only faced a trio of Astros in his career (during one start in 2018). He came up with the Dodgers in 2017 as a September call-up, but was left off their postseason roster and missed out on the World Series.
Walker Buehler, complete game, 15 K's, 0 walks, he's so freaking good pic.twitter.com/EZ4E8WU3MN
— Baseball Bros (@BaseballBros) August 4, 2019
Opponents across baseball would be justified in fearing Buehler, who is 22-9 with a 2.98 ERA and 1.007 WHIP the past two seasons.
He received some Cy Young votes last year and is a top-three candidate on the 2020 Cy Young odds in the National League.
For what it’s worth, Buehler won his lone start against the Astros, allowing two runs and four hits while striking out eight in 5 1/3 innings.
Shaky Start for LA?
After two blowout wins to start their season, the Dodgers suffered a series split to the San Francisco Giants. They posted a plus-12 run differential, but their record sits at 2-2.
Is this a cause for concern? Not really. In their losses, the Dodgers only scored five runs. But they left 18 runners on base and went 2-for-14 with runners in scoring position in those games.
Will Smith just got jiggy with it to cut Dodger's deficit to 1 in the 9th & almost killed a man. pic.twitter.com/otdQEkORkK
— Troy Turbeville (@VilleontheVille) July 25, 2020
In other words, their offense is still making things happen. With Buehler on the mound, they are certainly the right selection for Tuesday.
Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers, -140
Sports Writer
Jordan Horrobin is a sports journalist whose MLB, NHL, NFL and NCAA work has appeared in outlets such as The Athletic, MLB.com, the Detroit Free Press and more. He is currently based in Toronto, also working as a contributor for Forbes.com and a freelance editor for Sportsnet.
