Giants vs Astros Picks, Odds & Player Props to Target (May 3)
- Houston is a -175 favorite in the Giants vs Astros odds on Wednesday
- Framber Valdez owns a tidy 2.16 ERA at home this season
- Get the latest Giants vs Astros predictions, odds, probable pitchers and player prop picks here
Injuries are starting to pile up for the defending World Series champion Astros. They’re down a pair of starting pitchers in Luis Garcia and Jose Urquidy, as well as three key pieces of last year’s title winning lineup (Jose Altuve, Michael Brantley and Chas McCormick).
That’s a lot of significant losses to overcome, but online sportsbooks don’t seem too worried about it. They’ve pegged Houston as big favorites in Wednesday’s MLB odds, as they finish up a three-game series with the Giants.
Giants vs Astros Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Runline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco Giants | +150 | +1.5 (-150) | O 8 (-105) |
| Houston Astros | -175 | -1.5 (+130) | U 8 (-115) |
The Astros are currently -175 moneyline favorites, in a contest with a total of 8. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10 pm ET at Minute Maid Park in Houston, Texas, with sunshine and 82 degree temperatures in the forecast.
Odds as of May 2nd at FanDuel. Claim the FanDuel Sportsbook promo code.
San Francisco vs Houston Probable Pitchers
Houston will give the ball to Framber Valdez, who’s pitched better than his 2-3 record would indicate. The 29-year-old has been a major innings eater for the Astros, logging 7 innings of work in four of his past five starts.
He’s yet to allow more than three runs in any start all season, most recently pitching very well in back-to-back starts versus the Phillies and the World Series odds favorite Braves. Valdez has been significantly better at home than on the road this season, which spells trouble for the Giants hitters in the MLB lineups.
The lefty has posted a 2.16 ERA at Minute Maid Park this season, with a 23-to-3 strikeout-to-walk rate.
Webb vs Valdez Stats
| 1-5 | Record | 2-3 |
| 4.10 | ERA | 2.54 |
| 1.15 | WHIP | 1.15 |
| .266 | OBA | .248 |
| 8.6 | SO/W Ratio | 4.6 |
San Fran will counter with Logan Webb. A preseason NL CY Young odds longshot, Webb has been mostly disappointing through seven starts.
He’s yielded a .455 slugging percentage and .750 OPS to enemy hitters so far, and seven home runs. In 32 starts in 2022, he allowed a total of just 11 homers.
Webb coughed up four runs in each of his first four starts, but lately he has shown signs of improvement. He’s fresh off back-to-back 6+ inning outings, surrendering only two runs in each start.
The 26-year-old has never been a major strikeout producer in the past, but this year has been a different story. He’s on pace for the highest K/9 rate of his career (10.4), and has 15 strikeouts in his past two starts alone.
Like his counterpart, he’s got very little experience against Wednesday’s opponent. Astros hitters have had just 12 combined at-bats versus Webb, with the righty holding them to a .167 average.
Giants vs Astros Betting Notes
Big strikeout numbers might be tough to come by for Webb on Wednesday, as the Astros don’t whiff all that often. Their strikeout rate is the 11th lowest in baseball, while nobody k’s more than the Giants. Entering play on Tuesday, San Fran batters had struck out 298 times, despite playing the second fewest games in MLB (28).
Giants batters have actually been exceeding expectations from a power perspective, cranking the third most homers in baseball (48). That’s in spite of not having a single dominant hitter. J.D. Davis and LaMonte Wade Jr. lead the team with six home runs a piece, with only Wade and Thairo Estrada boasting a WAR above 0.9.
San Fran has hit a rough patch in their schedule dropping four straight coming in, including both matchups versus San Diego in the Mexico City Series.
Houston meanwhile, has performed admirably in spite of all their injuries. They’d won eight of 11 entering play on Tuesday, posting series victories over the Rays and Braves over the last 10 days, arguably the two best teams in baseball.
MVP things. pic.twitter.com/7DV32yFNse
— Houston Astros (@astros) April 29, 2023
The Astros still boast plenty of pop and big names, led by Yordan Alvarez, Jeremy Pena, Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman. Alvarez and Pena share the team lead with six home runs, while Alvarez sits fourth in MLB with 27 RBI.
Giants vs Astros Predictions
Houston has seen 55.2% of its games go over the total this season, but that number is being inflated by a bevy of high-scoring games early in the campaign. Lately, the under has reigned supreme, and with Valdez on the bump on Wednesday we should expect that trend to continue.
Lowest average launch angle allowed by a starting pitcher (Min. 20 IP)
1. Framber Valdez: -0.4 degrees
2. Alex Cobb: 0.6 degrees
3. Marcus Stroman: 1.8 degrees
4. Seth Lugo: 2.3 degrees
5. Anthony DeSclafani: 2.4 degrees
6. Logan Webb: 2.8 degrees— Jeff Young (@BaseballJeff1) April 25, 2023
The under is 6-1 in the Astros last seven games, and Valdez should be able to keep the Giants bats in check. As for Houston’s lineup, they actually hit lefties much harder than they do righties. That leaves the door open for Webb to continue to turn his season around.
Also working against Houston is their significant home/road offensive splits. They boast a slugging percentage that is .54 points higher and an OPS that .63 points better as visitors.
Picks: Under 8 (-110), Framber Valdez Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-152)
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As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
