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Home Run Props to Target Today – Get a +2921 HR Parlay on Wednesday, July 2nd

John Hyslop

By John Hyslop in MLB Baseball

Published:


Jun 28, 2025; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; San Diego Padres outfielder Gavin Sheets (30) reacts after hitting a three-run home run in the seventh inning against the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park. Mandatory Credit: Katie Stratman-Imagn Images
  • We’re looking at the biggest MLB slate I’ve ever seen on Tuesday, July 2
  • There is no way for the books to avoid our dinger wrath on a day like today
  • See below for my +2921 home run parlay today

When I woke up and saw the MLB slate today, I couldn’t believe my eyes! There are literally 18 games today and tonight. We’re talking double-headers all over the place, and not to mention, good hitting weather. It’s July, baby! Everybody knows, July is when the dingers fly. People say that. With a slate this large, it takes time to go through every single game and pick out which guy is going to get loose. I get it, we’re busy people. Lucky for us, I’ve taken the liberty of going through each game, player by player, and picking out the best possible options for dongs. Once I was done with that, I hand-whittled the list down to two guys that are absolutely, positively going yard tonight. Simply put, today could be our greatest day on this earth. Maybe better.

Please remember if you’re going to play these two bets, play both legs straight for a 1/4 unit as well as a 1/2 unit two-leg parlay. That way, you’re only risking one unit, and you’ll profit with just one player going yard.

MLB Home Run Parlay Today (July 2)

PickOdds
Gavin Sheets HR+430
Michael Busch HR+470
Two-Leg Parlay+2921

Altogether, both legs of today’s home run parlay generate +2921 odds at FanDuel, meaning a $100 bet would profit $6,480 if both legs hit.

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MLB odds as of July 2 at FanDuel. Check out the top MLB betting sites for the 2025 season.

Wednesday HR Parlay Leg #1 – Gavin Sheets to Hit a Home Run

We’ve got day games today, so we need to use them. My grandfather always said, “There’s nothing worse in this world than wasted talent.” I’m not sure if that applies to this situation, but it could. One thing I do know is that Gavin Sheets has the opportunity of a lifetime today. We can’t let him waste that.

Just look at what he does to four-seam fastballs.

PitchSheets ISO vs RHP (2025)Abel ISO vs RHB (2025)
Four-seam Fastball.315.414

Here’s the thing: every home run involves two players. A guy can’t hit a ball that’s not being thrown to him, so we need a guy throwing meatballs. That guy in this scenario is Mick Abel. He’s damn good at the meatball thing too. So far this season, he’s allowed four dongs to lefties on his four-seamer alone. He’s only pitched 23 innings! He throws the four-seamer 54% of the time so it’s not like Sheets won’t see one. My guess is, Mick tries him early with a heater and gets smoked. Feels right.

  • The Bet: Gavin Sheets to Hit a Home Run (+430) – FanDuel
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Wednesday HR Parlay Leg #2 – Michael Busch to Hit a Home Run

We’ll have a few hours between dingers today, but that’s fine. We can take the time to grab some food, maybe a drink, who really knows? The important part is, we use this time to soak in the feeling of being winners because that’s what we are today. I gotta tell you, it feels good.

Honestly, it has to feel as good as Michael Busch does when he sees a four-seam fastball or a changeup from a righty.

PitchBusch ISO vs RHP (L30 Days)Bibee ISO vs LHB (2025)
Four-seam Fastball.237.250
Changeup.607.178

We get it, Busch slams fastballs and changeups. That’s important, but what’s even more important is the fact that he will see them from Tanner Bibee. In fact, he’ll see a lot of them since Bibee throws those two pitches 58% of the time. On top of that, he’s given up six of his nine home runs to lefties on those two pitches. We’re talking video game ISO as well. My guess is Busch wastes no time and puts one on Mars in his first at bat. Feels easy.

  • The Bet: Michael Busch to Hit a Home Run (+470) – FanDuel

John Hyslop

John has spent the past 20+ years betting sports on a daily basis and is considered by many to be a walking sports betting encyclopedia. From obscure player props to sides and totals, if there is an angle, John will find it.

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