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Houston Astros vs San Francisco Giants Odds, Predictions & Starting Pitchers (June 12)

Sascha Paruk

by Sascha Paruk in MLB Baseball

Updated Jun 12, 2024 · 8:35 AM PDT

San Francisco Giants pinch hitter Austin Slater running to first after hitting a game-winning single
Jun 10, 2024; San Francisco, California, USA; San Francisco Giants pinch hitter Austin Slater (13) hits a walk-off RBI single against the Houston Astros during the tenth inning at Oracle Park. Mandatory Credit: John Hefti-USA TODAY Sports
  • A great pitching matchup is on tap in San Francisco this afternoon when the Astros’ Framber Valdez faces the Giants’ Logan Webb
  • The teams have combined for just 11 runs during the first two games of the series
  • Below, see the Houston Astros vs San Francisco Giants odds, predictions, and starting-pitcher stats

Still six games under .500 as the 2024 MLB season inches closer the halfway point, the Houston Astros (31-37, 14-19 away) look to build off last night’s 3-1 victory when they face the San Francisco Giants (33-35, 18-15 home) in the rubbermatch of a three-game set at Oracle Park at 12:45 pm PT/3:45 pm ET.

With ace Logan Webb on the mound, San Francisco is listed as a slight -115 home favorite in the Astros vs Giants odds for Wednesday afternoon.

Houston Astros vs San Francisco Giants Odds

Team Moneyline Runline Total
Houston Astros (Valdez) -105 -1.5 (+165) O 7.5 (-100)
San Francisco Giants (Webb) -115 +1.5 (-200) U 7.5 (-120)

Wednesday’s MLB odds list the Astros as -105 underdogs to win a near-pick’em game. The game total is sitting at just 7.5 and the odds significantly favor the under (-100o/-120u).

Houston has been the single-best under bet in baseball this season, going 24-41-3 over/under. The Giants, however, have been the sixth-best over bet, with a 35-31-2 O/U record after 68 games.

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Odds as of June 12 at BetMGM. Find the best MLB betting site for your style. 

Despite trailing the Mariners by 7.5 games in the AL West, Houston is still an optimistic +340 second-favorite to win the West for the fourth straight year (and seventh time in eight seasons) in the current MLB division odds. Nine games behind the powerhouse LA Dodgers, San Francisco is +3000 to win just its second division title since 2012.

Framber Valdez vs Logan Webb

Valdez
VS
Webb
5-3 Record 5-5
3.53 ERA 2.92
3.75 xERA 4.61
1.15 WHIP 1.20
19.8% K% 20.7%

Thirty-year-old lefty Framber Valdez was absolutely electric in his last start. The stocky Dominican pitched a complete-game four-hitter during a 7-1 win over the Angels, striking out eight. The start prior, he allowed just one run on two hits over 7.0 innings against the Twins, striking out four.

Those two gems lowered his ERA from an uncharacteristically high 4.34 to 3.53. After posting a 5.86 ERA in his rookie year in 2019, Valdez has finished every season  with an ERA of 3.57 or lower.

YouTube video

There is minimal history between Valdez and the current San Francisco lineup. Seven players on the Giants have faced Valdez a total of 44 times with a .250 average and .684 OPS. Jorge Soler is the only Giant with an extra-base hit off Valdez, taking him yard twice in 12 at-bats.

According to his peripherals, Logan Webb has been one of the luckiest pitchers in baseball this year. His 2.92 ERA is almost two runs lower than his xERA (4.61), though his  xFIP is only 3.09. His BABIP is well above league-average at .318 but he’s also allowing a lot of hard contact (52.7% hard-hit rate), indicating the inflated BABIP isn’t a fluke that’s apt to regress.

Webb has been fairly solid against stiff competition over his last five starts (Rangers, Yankees, Mets, Pirates, Dodgers). He’s lasted at least 6.0 innings in all five and gone 7.0 in each of his last three. He’s allowed just eight earned runs over 33.0 innings in that span with 0.909 WHIP and 31 strikeouts.

YouTube video

Like Valdez, there isn’t a ton of history between Webb and the Houston lineup. In 40 total at-bats, Astro hitters are slashing .275/.326/.350 off of Webb with just one home run (Alex Bregman), no doubles and no triples. Webb has only recorded eight strikeouts in those 40 at-bats, though.

Valdez is currently 15th in the AL Cy Young odds at +5375 while Webb has faded to eighth in the NL at +1775.

Astros vs Giants Prediction for June 12

With Valdez and Webb on the mound against lineups that aren’t terribly familiar with them, I have a strong lean to the under in the pitcher-friendly Oracle Park. Over the first two games of the series, the Houston starters have combined for 11.2 innings, while the San Francisco starters have combined for 11.0, meaning neither bullpen has been too taxed over the last 48 hours.

But I also don’t expect Valdez to be spotless after throwing a season-high 106 pitches last time out. Valdez only threw that many pitches three times last season and, in his next start, he never posted a GSC higher than 60.0.

HOU vs SF picks:

  • Under 7.5 (-120)
  • Giants moneyline (-115)

 

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