Is Blake Snell A Legitimate AL Cy Young Candidate?

• Blake Snell has pitched his way into the AL Cy Young award conversation thanks to his brilliant numbers since the All-Star Break
• Can Snell continue to stay hot during the final month of the regular season?
• Will Chris Sale pick up where he left off when he returns from the DL?

Bookmakers didn’t think much of Blake Snell coming into 2018. The 25-year-old southpaw was fresh off a disappointing sophomore season in which he went 5-7 with a 4.04 ERA and spent six weeks in the minors working on his command. The fact he was even given odds to win the American League Cy Young award back in March was more surprising than the fact that his odds were a distant +27500.

Flash forward five months and Snell is now the best pitcher in the AL. The electric lefty has gone 5-0 with a 1.10 ERA since the All-Star Break and is a big reason why Tampa Bay has snuck back into the Wild Card race. Snell’s red hot performance has caught the attention of fans and sportsbooks alike, and his average odds to win the 2018 AL Cy Young award now sit at +700.

AL Cy Young Average Odds

The only players with better odds entering baseball’s final month are Chris Sale, Justin Verlander, and Corey Kluber. It may seem bizarre seeing Snell’s name listed among such elite company, but he’s demonstrated that he belongs thanks to his recent string of dominant outtings. The 6’4″ lefty allowed just 11 hits and three earned runs during the entire month of August and continually baffled hitters with his deceptive slider and nasty knuckle curve.

AL Cy Young Top 5 Contenders (September 4, 2018)

Snell is currently in a three-way tie for most wins in the American League, and ranks second in ERA and WAR, and fourth in WHIP.

Snell’s average odds to win the Cy Young would probably be even better were it not for the pitchers who rank ahead of him in those all-important categories. Sale, Verlander, and Kluber all have a better WHIP, and Sale’s ERA and WAR are also superior.

Cy Young Contenders 2018 Pitching Statistics

The one thing that Snell has going for him is his relative durability. The Seattle native has already started 26 games and has logged 151.2 innings. By contrast, Sale has started just 23 games and has been sidelined since August 15th with mild inflammation in his left shoulder.

The Red Sox ace is being brought along slowly and is expected to be on a strict pitch count when he returns next weekend. That’s significant, because even if Sale does maintain his sub-2.00 ERA, he’ll be unable to improve his win total if he’s held to two-to-three innings for his first two starts.  Wins are no longer as important in today’s age of endless analytics, but it would be hard for voters to give the award to a player with just 12 victories when his next closest competitor has over 20.

Lots of baseball to play, but for Cy Young voters, the #Rays Blake Snell has faced the AL’s top 5 scoring teams 10 times this year.
Among the other contenders – Sale, Bauer, Verlander, Kluber – none has faced that group more than 6 times.

— Neil Solondz (@neilsolondz) August 26, 2018

And that’s really what’s at stake for Snell. Can he continue to win games while gradually improving his ERA and strikeout totals? It’s a lot to ask of a young player, but the answer would appear to be “yes” based upon his latest metrics. Snell has improved his ERA, strikeout-to-walk ratio, and BAA significantly over the past two months and is getting sharper with every start.

Snell is also well positioned for success thanks to Tampa Bay’s remaining schedule. The Rays only face three plus .500 teams in September and have a chance to fatten their record against a trio of bottom dwellers in the Orioles, Rangers, and Blue Jays.

Snell was a phenomenal value at +27500, but he’s still worth nabbing at +700 with all of the uncertainty surrounding Sale. Pick him up while you still can and enjoy watching one of baseball’s best young pitchers blossom before your very eyes.