Mets vs Dodgers Picks, Predictions & Props to Target Tonight

• The Dodgers (12-4) are heavy home favorites vs the Mets, who have lost 6 straight
• The pitching duel between Dodgers’ Yoshinobu Yamamoto (2.50 ERA) and Mets’ Nolan McLean (2.70 ERA) points toward a low-scoring game.
• Top betting picks include the Dodgers Moneyline (-207) and Under 7.5 Total Runs, backed by sharp money and strong starting pitching

The Los Angeles Dodgers (12-4) host the struggling New York Mets (7-10) at Dodger Stadium tonight. The Dodgers blanked the Mets 4-0 on Monday behind 8 shutout innings from Justin Wrobleski.

Tonight, Dodgers ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto (2-1, 2.50) goes against Nolan McLean (1-1, 2.70), who will try to end the Mets’ 6-game losing streak. McLean has never faced the Dodgers, and Yamamoto has only faced the Mets once. First pitch is set for 10:40 pm, ET. MLB.TV, which is included in every Fubo TV subscription, will provide coverage.

Will the Mets bounce back as plucky underdogs, or will the home favorites control the diamond and cover the spread once again? We break down the pitching profiles, offensive dynamics, and betting angles to help you build a winning ticket for Mets at Dodgers.

Mets vs Dodgers Odds

The graphic above shows the best available odds on Tuesday, April 14 and is subject to change.

The Dodgers enter this contest as overwhelming home favorites, currently listed at -207 on the moneyline. With the Mets sitting as +171 road underdogs, oddsmakers clearly respect the home team’s early-season dominance and offensive firepower. The -207 moneyline carries an implied win probability of roughly 67.4%, but calculating the vig-free true probability gives the Dodgers a 64.6% mathematical edge to win outright, compared to the Mets’ true probability of 35.4%.

When betting markets originally opened, the Dodgers were listed as slightly shorter -200 moneyline favorites, while their -1.5 runline offered a more lucrative +112 payout. However, heavy public action has steadily driven the prices in their favor, forcing sportsbooks to adjust the moneyline to -207 and shorten the runline odds down to +104.

The total opened at 7.5 runs with the Over heavily juiced at -115 and the Under sitting at -105. The market has experienced notable reverse line movement since the opener. The juice on the Over has faded to -109, while the Under has moved to -110, suggesting respected bettors are backing a pitchers’ duel.

Nolan McLean vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto 2026 Stats

Yoshinobu Yamamoto vs Mets

Mets Hitters vs Yamamoto

Dodgers vs. Mets Home/Road Stats

Mets vs Dodgers Picks, Predictions & Best Bets

Pick #1: Dodgers Moneyline (-200 at BetMGM)

Despite the pitching parity, the offensive discrepancy is impossible to ignore. The Dodgers are thriving with a 75.0% win rate overall this season, backed by a lineup that hits .260 collectively with a dominant .789 OPS at home. Conversely, the Mets hover around a 41.1% win rate, dragged down by a sluggish .237 road batting average and a .668 OPS. Situational trends also heavily favor the home side; the Dodgers are a reliable 9-4 (69.2%) when taking the field as the betting favorite this season. Because the Dodgers’ bats are vastly superior at manufacturing runs, especially considering Juan Soto remains out of the Mets lineup, backing their moneyline is the smartest baseline prediction.

BETMGM SPORTSBOOK

Offer

T&Cs

Get Up To $1,500 Paid Back in Bonus Bets

Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or 1-800-MY-RESET (Available in the US), Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), Call 1-800-327-5050 (MA), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-981-0023 (PR). 21+ only. Please Gamble Responsibly. See BetMGM.com for Terms. First Bet Offer for new customers only (if applicable). Subject to eligibility requirements. Bonus bets are non-withdrawable. In partnership with Kansas Crossing Casino and Hotel. This promotional offer is not available in DC, MS, NY, NV, ON, or PR.

LOCK IN PROMO

CODE: SBD1500

CODE: SBD1500

SIGNUP BONUS

GET UP TO
$1,500 BACK

IN BONUS BETS!

BET NOW

Pick #2: Under 7.5 Runs (-108 at FanDuel)

When evaluating this matchup, the starting pitching dynamic instantly points toward a low-scoring affair, making the Under an extremely attractive play. The Dodgers are sending Yoshinobu Yamamoto to the mound, who has been sensational with a 2.50 ERA, a 0.89 WHIP, and a stifling .219 opponent batting average across 54 innings. On the other side, the Mets counter with Nolan McLean, whose numbers are equally electric. McLean sports a 2.70 ERA, an elite 0.84 WHIP, and is holding opposing hitters to a microscopic .140 batting average while striking out 10.80 batters per nine innings.

FANDUEL SPORTSBOOK

Offer

T&Cs

Bet $5, Get $250 If Your Bet Wins!

Must be 21+. T&C Apply. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Offer not available in AR.

LOCK IN PROMO

SIGNUP PROMO

BET $5
GET $250

IF YOUR BET WINS!

BET NOW

Mets vs Dodgers Top Props

Player Prop 1: Nolan McLean Over 5.5 Pitcher Strikeouts (-129 at DraftKings). McLean’s 10.80 K/9 rate highlights his premium swing-and-miss stuff. Even against a disciplined batting order, reaching six strikeouts provides solid value.

Player Prop 2: Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 Total Bases (-101 at DraftKings). Ohtani averages a hit per game with a robust .944 OPS and 5 home runs on the season.

DRAFTKINGS SPORTSBOOK

Offer

T&Cs

Sign Up Today & Receive Up to
$1,050 in Bonuses!

GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL 1-800-GAMBLER, (800) 327-5050 or visit gamblinghelplinema.org (MA). Call 877-8-HOPENY/text HOPENY (467369) (NY). Please Gamble Responsibly. 888-789-7777/visit ccpg.org (CT), or visit www.mdgamblinghelp.org (MD). 21+ and present in most states. (18+ DC/KY/NH/WY). Void in ONT/OR/NH. Eligibility restrictions apply. On behalf of Boot Hill Casino & Resort (KS). Pass-thru of per wager tax may apply in IL. 1 per new customer. Must register new account to receive reward Token. Must select Token BEFORE placing min. $5 bet to receive $300 in Bonus Bets if your bet wins. Min. -500 odds req. Token and Bonus Bets are single-use and non-withdrawable. Token expires 2/1/26. Bonus Bets expire in 7 days (168 hours). Stake removed from payout. Terms: sportsbook.draftkings.com/promos. Ends 1/25/26 at 11:59 PM ET. Sponsored by DK.

LOCK IN PROMO

SIGNUP PROMO

SIGN UP
& GET $1,050

BONUS BETS + DEPOSIT BONUS

GET PROMO

Mets vs Dodgers Betting Trends

• Handling Expectations: The Dodgers are 9-4 as the betting favorite.
• Recent Form: The Dodgers are 8-2 over their last 10 games.
• Plucky Underdogs: Despite a sluggish overall record, the Mets have played their best baseball when catching plus money, securing a 66.7% win percentage (2-1) as the betting underdog this season.

Public Betting Splits & Handle

Tracking MLB public betting trends reveals key nuances.

Moneyline:

• Dodgers: 93.3% of tickets | 90.8% of money
• Mets: 6.7% of tickets | 9.2% of money

The overwhelming majority of ticket volume and overall handle is riding on the Dodgers. With the money percentage nearly mirroring the ticket percentage, there is unified confidence across both casual bettors and larger bankrolls that the home favorites will handle their business.

Runline:

• Dodgers: 92.7% of tickets | 95.9% of money
• Mets: 7.3% of tickets | 4.1% of money

A staggering 95.9% of the total handle is backing the Dodgers on the runline. When the financial backing outpaces the already massive ticket percentage, it shows that heavier, more confident wagers are actively laying the runs.

Total (Over/Under):

• OVER: 92.4% of tickets | 73.3% of money
• UNDER: 7.6% of tickets | 26.7% of money

While the public’s read on the side matches our prediction, the total tells a much different story. Over 92% of the tickets are hammering the Over, but the money percentage drops significantly to 73.3%. Conversely, the Under is drawing 26.7% of the overall handle despite accounting for fewer than 8% of the total tickets. This discrepancy indicates that the average bet size on the Under is substantially larger than the average wager on the Over.

It is important to note that a pick should never be justified solely by public splits or line movement; true betting value comes from structural advantages. In this case, our official Under recommendation is anchored by the elite starting pitching profiles of Yamamoto and McLean, with the sharp money splits simply serving as secondary confirmation.