Spence vs. Tszyu Predictions, Odds & Tale of the Tape (July 26)

• Errol Spence Jr. ends a three-year layoff against fellow former champion Tim Tszyu
• The fight card has already lost a pair of fights, with Jermall Charlo and Stephen Fulton falling out during fight week
• Check out the best analysis, predictions and bets for the full Spence vs. Tszyu card below

---

For the first time since July 2023, it is finally Errol Spence Jr. fight week. The former unified welterweight champion brings his 28-1 record to the table against former IBF light middleweight champion Tim Tszyu (27-3).

Spence and Tszyu have cooked up an intense rivalry during the build-up, with the Australian saying he plans to retire his 36-year-old counterpart. Spence is coming off his first professional loss in a destructive nine-round battle with Terence Crawford.

The former champions were supposed to headline a loaded fight card that also featured two more former world champions, Jermall Charlo and Stephen Fulton. However, Charlo withdrew from the scheduled co-main event bout due to travel issues, and Fulton’s scheduled bout with Liam Wilson got canceled due to his egregious weight miss.

Errol Spence Jr. vs. Tim Tszyu Fight Card Odds

The main event is not only the most anticipated fight on the card but also expected to be the most competitive. The line has slowly shifted toward Spence during fight week, with ‘The Big Fish’ closing as a -140 favorite. Tszyu is coming back at near +120.

Undefeated Australian middleweight Callum Peters is the biggest favorite on the card, billed at -4000. Young prospects Paulo Aokuso (-550) and Ahmad Reda (-300) are also expected to get the job done on Saturday night.

Odds as of July 25, 2026. Check out the best boxing betting apps in 2026 to place a wager.

Errol Spence Jr. vs. Tim Tszyu Prediction

While Tszyu comes into the fight five years younger than Spence, the two have about the same amount of mileage on their boxing odometers. Both have been in countless wars throughout their careers that have taken a significant toll on themselves, putting them in roughly the same category entering Saturday’s main event.

For Spence, the biggest factor is clearly his three-year layoff following the worst performance of his career. The champ used that time to mend a few nagging injuries, but he also admitted that returning to fight camp was difficult after realizing how green the grass is on the other side.

Yet, at 36, Spence still has more than enough left in the tank to give at least one more vintage performance. Luckily, Tszyu is the type of fighter who will lure the best out of him.

⏪Throwback to Errol Spence Jr’s last pro win, a dominant 10th round TKO over Yordenis Ugás, ahead of his return against Tim Tszyu tomorrow. pic.twitter.com/WnwcNAfnnB

— Boxing Kingdom (@BoxingKingdom14) July 25, 2026

Throughout their careers, Spence and Tszyu have always thrown caution to the wind, preferring to sit in the pocket and throw heavy blows on the inside. Spence has more technical skills but will never back down from the type of fight Tszyu consistently brings.

After relying on his chin for most of his career, Tszyu’s durability has taken a step back recently. The 31-year-old has been stopped twice in his last six bouts while hitting the canvas three times in that span.

Spence has been equally durable throughout his career, but his mental disposition must be questioned after a prolonged absence. Once the fight gets going, neither man will be willing to back down even if both no longer have the durability to win a war of attrition.

• Boxing Picks: Spence vs. Tszyu Under 10.5 Rounds (-130)

Paulo Aokuso vs. Luis Antonio Tejeda Prediction

Two undefeated light heavyweights collide in the co-main event when Paul Aokuso and Luis Antonio Tejeda contest for the vacant IBF inter-continental light heavyweight title. The Sydney native Aokuso will be the hometown fighter against the Dominican Tejeda.

Although technically undefeated, Tejeda has a pair of losses in IBA Pro. He struggled against faster fighters who did not allow him to land his sluggish power shots upstairs, collecting a decision loss to Bekzad Nurdauletov and a TKO loss to Arlen Lopez. Both were able to punish Tejeda’s undisciplined guard and disrupt his rhythm by beating him to the punch.

A grand arrival from Paulo Aokuso.

The telegenic southpaw puts the light heavyweight division on notice, halting Michael Van Nimwegen in five rounds on debut.#ThrowbackThursday | 🎥 Fox Sports Australia pic.twitter.com/kARc6NATa1

— Aus-Boxing.com (@ausboxing) May 26, 2022

Aokuso is the significantly faster fighter with better footwork, defense and cleaner technique. Contrary to what their records indicate, he also has more natural power and never forces the issue.

Whenever opposing southpaws collide, the better boxer almost always prevails. In this case, that is clearly Aokuso, who will slowly but surely break down Tejeda.

• Boxing Picks: Aokuso vs. Tejeda Under 8.5 Rounds (+167)

Callum Peters vs. Ivan Ricardo Actis Prediction

Aside from the fighters competing in the main event, Callum Peters might be the most talented boxer competing in Australia on Saturday night. The 23-year-old already has future star written all over him ahead of a clash with fellow undefeated fighter Ivan Ricardo Actis.

Actis will have a slight reach advantage, but the speed difference will be a mile wide. Peters has some of the fastest hands in the middleweight division, which he expertly pairs with elite head movement and angle-cutting.

Undefeated rising Australian Olympian Callum Peters enters the ring for a 10-round middleweight clash against fellow unbeaten Ivan Actis.#ActisPeters

🥊 Order #SpenceTszyu now: https://t.co/dAHjP8kXP8 pic.twitter.com/ALp2P1CZZB

— Premier Boxing Champions (@premierboxing) July 25, 2026

Actis will need to establish his jab and manage distance to get the job done. He has been able to do that in all but one of his 12 pro fights thus far. But against Peters, he will be entirely out-gunned and overmatched. The young Australian will please the crowd with another showcase performance in his home country.

• Boxing Picks: Callum Peters by KO/TKO (-175)

Ahmad Reda vs. Paul Fleming Prediction

Paul Fleming is the fighter Premier Boxing Champions has been promoting for years, but Ahmad Reda could be next in line to take his place. The 23-year-old has quickly risen up the lightweight ranks with an 8-0 start to his pro career and a 75 percent knockout rate.

Meanwhile, Fleming has fought just once in the last three years when he returned from a 32-month layoff to fight Jake Wyllie to a split draw in December 2025. Eight months later, the 38-year-old finds himself forced to defend his position against an opponent 15 years his junior.

However, while youth and athleticism will be on Reda’s side, Fleming brings a unique approach that could trouble the youngster. Both fighters are predictable in their own ways, but Fleming is always looking to bring a dogfight to make it as gritty as possible. Reda has been lured into such fights on multiple occasions.

133.2lbs for Paul Fleming 🔥

🎟️ Buy #SpenceTszyu NOW at https://t.co/FoiaUucafv | July 25 | Live on DAZN and DAZN on Prime | In Select Territories pic.twitter.com/Xe5JYvfJd7

— DAZN Boxing (@DAZNBoxing) July 25, 2026

While Reda has the tools to out-box Fleming from the outside, he lacks the necessary footwork to keep the fight in his realm. The 23-year-old’s subpar movement combines with his tendency to get lured into brawls. Engaging in a firefight would only benefit Fleming, who, at 38, still carries more power and boasts a better chin.

The featured fight is set up for Reda to take the next step against an older fighter well past his prime and struggling to find a rhythm. But if Fleming can dig deep enough to turn back the clock even a touch, he could make life very difficult for the young prospect. Reda has not yet proved himself capable of handling this type of test to comfortable justify the moneyline.

• Boxing Picks: Paul Fleming Moneyline (+222)