Marlins vs Phillies Odds & Picks (Sep. 6)
By Robert Duff in MLB Baseball
Published:
- The Philadelphia Phillies are -225 home favorites over the Miami Marlins in a National League game slated for Tuesday, September 6
- Philadelphia is 6-1 straight up in the past seven games against Miami
- Get the Marlins vs Phillies odds and predictions
Will a little home cooking enable the Philadelphia Phillies (73-61, 39-30 home) to get back on track as they begin a three-game series against the Miami Marlins (55-78, 29-40 away)?
Philadelphia comes limping home from a seven-game road trip that saw the Phillies go 1-6 straight up and 2-5 against the runline. However, home life has proven to be much better for Philadelphia. Over the past nine home games, the Phillies are 7-2 SU and 6-3 ATR.
Miami could prove the perfect fodder. The Marlins are 3-12 SU over their past 15 road games. That’s including dropping two of three at Philadelphia from August 9-11.
Oddsmakers are setting the Phillies as -225 home favorites. Philadelphia is 31-24-4 on the total as a home favorite this season.
Marlins vs Phillies Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Runline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Marlins | +185 | +1.5 (-120) | O 7 (+100) |
| Philadelphia Phillies | -225 | -1.5 (+100) | U 7 (-120) |
Odds as of September 5 at Caesars Sportsbook. Get this Caesars Sportsbook bonus code to bet on MLB today
The MLB lineups for these two teams will be ready for the first pitch at Citizens Bank Park at 6:45 pm ET on Tuesday, September 6. Rain, 8 mph wind and a temperature of 70 degrees are in the weather forecast.
At odds of -225, the Phillies have an implied probability of victory of 69.23% in the MLB betting line. A successful $10 wager on Philadelphia would create a payout of $14.40.
The MLB betting trends show that the public is backing the Phillies. There’s 62% of all moneyline and runline bets supporting Philadelphia. As well, 62% of wagers are playing the over on the total of 7 runs.
In the MLB pennant odds, the Phillies are +1600 to win the National League and the Marlins are at +100000. In the World Series odds, the Phillies are +3500 and the Marlins are +200000.
Miami vs Philadelphia Probable Pitchers
Despite a solid 2.97 ERA, Marlins left-hander Jesus Luzardo was 1-3 in six August starts. His August 7 win at the Chicago Cubs was Luzardo’s first since April 30.
Jesús Luzardo, 97mph Paint. 🖌️🎨✝️🦎 pic.twitter.com/xP2O1dLL3I
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) August 30, 2022
Luzardo missed all of June and July while on the 60-day IL with a forearm injury. The Marlins are 1-7 in Luzardo’s last eight starts. He’s worked at least five innings in each of his past six trips to the mound.
He’ll be facing the Phillies for the first time this season. Over his career, Luzardo is 1-0 with a 3.27 ERA in two starts against Philadelphia. He will be making his first career start at Citizens Bank Park.
Luzardo vs Nola Stats
| 3-6 | Record | 9-11 |
| 3.44 | ERA | 3.43 |
| 3.04 | xERA | 2.71 |
| 1.04 | WHIP | 1.13 |
| 2.92 | SO/W Ratio | 8.64 |
Phillies right-hander Aaron Nola is 1-3 over his past four starts. He’s allowed 13 earned runs through his last 18 innings of work for a 6.50 ERA. At the same time, he’s struck out 33 against two walks during his past 26 innings on the bump. Nola has allowed five or more earned runs in four of his last nine starts.
Aaron Nola is so confounding. He can be so unbelievably great and, truly, over the years, he's one of the best in the league. And yet, at times, he is so hittable. I think that's what frustrates people. They just never know what to expect.
— John Stolnis (@JohnStolnis) August 31, 2022
Nola is among the top 1% of MLB pitchers in bases on balls percentage (3.3), the top 7% in hard hit percentage (30.9) and the top 9% in xwOBA (.258). He’s leading the NL in strikeouts/walks ratio (8.64), walks per nine innings (1.2) and shutouts (1).
Against the Marlins, Nola is 2-0 this season and has yet to allow a runner to cross home plate. He beat them 10-0 on June 8 at 4-0 on July 17. Both starts were in Miami. Over his career, Nola is 5-8 with a 3.28 ERA in 19 career starts against the Marlins.
Batting Average vs Starting Pitchers
| Marlins Batters | Batting Average vs Nola | Phillies Batters | Batting Average vs Luzardo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Anderson | .345 | Alex Bohm | .333 |
| Jon Berti | .375 | Jean Segura | .500 |
| Joey Wendle | .333 | Matt Vierling | .500 |
Miami’s Jon Berti is 3-for-8 (.375) with a RBI when facing Nola. Brian Anderson is 10-for-29 (.345). Joey Wendle is 2-for-6 (.333) with an RBI. Miguel Rojas has driven in five runs.
https://twitter.com/BrodesMedia/status/1562248289789136896?s=20&t=kXHcqjlhMN9GMPJfhh7_uQ
For the Phillies, both Matt Vierling (3-for-6) and Jean Segura (1-for-2) are .500 hitters against Luzardo. Vierling has driven in three runs. Alec Bohm is 1-for-3 (.333).
Marlins vs Phillies Prediction
The Phillies are 6-1 SU over their past seven meetings with the Marlins. At home, Philadelphia is 7-3 SU in the last 10 games when facing Miami.
Sounds stupid to say, but this week upcoming is the most critical of the Phillies season. Marlins and Nats at home. If you play well, West Coast trip was a hiccup.If you don’t stabilize things here- then oh boy.
— Kevin Cooney (@KevinCooney) September 4, 2022
Not only are the Phillies beating the Marlins, they are handcuffing the Miami offense. Through this 6-1 run, Miami has scored just nine runs. The Marlins were shutout twice and held to one run in three other games.
Pick: Philadelphia Phillies (-225)
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Sports Writer
An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.
