Mets vs Marlins Odds, Picks, and Probable Pitchers (Sep. 7)
By John Perrotto in MLB Baseball
Published:
- The Mets are -170 road favorites over the Marlins on Tuesday night
- Carlos Carrasco (0-2, 6.59) will pitch for the Mets against rookie Edward Cabrera (0-1, 5.23)
- Odds and analysis can be found below with a prediction
The New York Mets will try to move back above .500 when they visit the Miami Marlins at 6:40 p.m. ET Tuesday in the opener of a three-game series at loanDepot Park.
The Mets (69-69) have dropped two of their last three games after winning six in a row. They are third in the National League East, four games behind the first-place Atlanta Braves, and 4.5 games out of the second NL wild-card spot.
The Marlins (57-80) were off Monday after winning two of three against the Philadelphia Phillies over the weekend at home.
The Mets are sizable favorites in a game that will be nationally televised by FS1.
Mets vs Marlins Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Runline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| New York Mets | -170 | -1.5 (+100) | Over 7.5 (-120) |
| Miami Marlins | +150 | +1.5 (-120) | Under 7.5 (+100) |
Odds as of September 7th at DraftKings.
New York opened at -155 and the moneyline quickly rose from there. The loanDepot Park roof will likely be closed as the game time temperature is forecast to be 83 degrees with a 30% chance of showers or thunderstorms and a southeast wind at 6 mph.
Probable Pitchers
Two pitchers without a win this season face off as Carlos Carrasco (0-2, 6.59) will start for the Mets against rookie Edward Cabrera (0-1, 5.23).
Carrasco has made seven starts since missing the first four months of the season with a torn right hamstring. He has only one quality start and the Mets are 3-4 when he pitches.
Carrasco vs Cabrera
| 0-2 | Record | 0-1 |
| 6.59 | ERA | 5.23 |
| 3.82 | xERA | 10.72 |
| 1.22 | WHIP | 1.35 |
| 5.60 | SO/W | 1.33 |
Carrasco also faced the Marlins in his previous start last Thursday in New York and did not factor in the decisions. In 5.1 innings, he yielded three runs on four hits with five strikeouts and one walk.
The guy they call Cookie finished strong.
Carlos Carrasco has set down the last 12 Marlins he's faced 💪 pic.twitter.com/DeKvelpFmG
— SNY (@SNYtv) September 3, 2021
Carrasco is 0-1 with a 4.82 ERA in four road starts this season and 0-2 with a 5.53 ERA in six nighttime outings. This season, he has faced the Marlins twice and has an 0-0 record with a 4.66 ERA. He is 1-0 with a 2.14 ERA against them in four career starts.
Carrasco’s lone appearance at loanDepot Park came on Aug. 4. He was charged with two runs in 4.1 innings of a no-decision.
Cabrera will be making his third career MLB start since being called up from Triple-A Jacksonville on Aug. 25. He faced the Mets last Tuesday in New York and lost as he allowed three runs on seven hits in four innings while striking out two and walking none.
The 23-year-old cuts an imposing figure.
Edward Cabrera is 6'5" and weighs in at 217 LBS! 👀#JuntosMiami #MLB pic.twitter.com/Wv6doiqNtl
— Bally Sports Florida: Marlins (@BallyMarlins) August 31, 2021
The Marlins have split Cabrera’s two outings after he went 3-4 with a 2.93 ERA in 13 combined starts at three levels of the farm system.
History on Aguilar’s Side
First baseman Jesus Aguilar is the only Marlins’ hitter with much history facing Carrasco, going 3 for 9 with a double.
Mets right fielder Michael Conforto belted a two-run home run off Cabrera last week and was hit by a pitch in his other plate appearance.
Batting Average vs Starting Pitchers
| Mets Batters | Batting Average vs Cabrera |
|---|---|
| Michael Conforto | 1.000 |
| Javier Baez | .500 |
| J.D. Davis | .500 |
| Jeff McNeil | .500 |
| Jonathan Villar | .500 |
| Pete Alonso | .000 |
| Patrick Mazeika | .000 |
| Marlins Batters | Batting Average vs Carrasco |
| Miguel Rojas | .500 |
| Alex Jackson | .500 |
| Jesus Aguilar | .333 |
| Bryan De La Cruz | .250 |
| Jorge Alfaro | .200 |
| Jazz Chisholm Jr. | .200 |
| Lewis Brinson | .000 |
| Isan Diaz | .000 |
| Sandy Leon | .000 |
| Jesus Sanchez | .000 |
Mets second baseman Javier Baez has been hot in 15 games since coming off the injured list Aug. 22. He is hitting .327 with five doubles, four home runs and seven RBIs.
.@javy23baez was on yesterday. #CarryTheFreight pic.twitter.com/IyVFzgXUiO
— New York Mets (@Mets) September 6, 2021
Center fielder Kevin Pillar is 11 for 23 (.478) in his last eight games with seven runs, two doubles, four homers and 10 RBIs.
Marlins shortstop Miguel Rojas is questionable after leaving Sunday’s loss to the Phillies with left trapezius soreness. Catcher Jorge Alfaro sat out with knee soreness.
Mets vs Marlins Pick
The teams have split 12 games this season with the Marlins going 5-2 in Miami. Mets outfielder/first baseman Dominic Smith is hitting .333 (13 for 39) with one double. Marlins center fielder Lewis Brinson is 7 for 22 (.318) with a double and a home run.
Lewis Brinson. For the lead. Bad Boy! pic.twitter.com/DVQZUU7QAP
— Marlins Radio Network (@MarlinsRadio) September 5, 2021
Carrasco is a proven major league pitcher with 88 career wins. He is beginning to round into form following his lengthy absence and is the play here.
- The Pick: Mets -170
Sports Writer
John Perrotto has been covering and writing about sports for various outlets for over 40 years. His work has appeared in the likes of USA TODAY, ESPN.com, SI.com, Forbes.com, The Associated Press, Baseball Digest, and more. John is based out of Beaver Falls, PA.
