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Mets’ NL Pennant Odds Jump from +6000 to +1900 in One Week

Danny Espinosa walks to the batters box_
The New York Mets have won 14 of 15 games and their NL Pennant odds dropped from +6000 to +1900 in the span of a week. Photo by: D. Benjamin Miller [licensed under CC0 1.0 Universal Public Domain Dedication.]
  • The New York Mets saw their average National League Pennant odds drop from +1600 to +900 in the span of a week
  • They’ve won 14 of their last 15 games
  • They are still eight games off the pace in the NL East Division but just a half game out of a wildcard spot

Not so long ago, thoughts of the New York Mets and the National League Pennant went together about as well as peanut butter and ketchup.

On July 12, the 41-50 Mets were a season-worst 11 games below .500. They’d lost 11 of their last 14 games. Two days later, they fell to a season-high 14.5 games out of first place in the NL East Division.

All of a sudden, the Mets caught fire. They’ve won 14 of 15 and moved to within a half game of the second NL Wild Card playoff position.

In the process across a number of leading sportsbooks, the club has seen their average NL Pennant odds reduced from +1600 to +900 over the course of a week’s time.

2019 National League Pennant Odds

Team Odds
Los Angeles Dodgers EVEN
Atlanta Braves +425
Chicago Cubs +700
Washington Nationals +1000
St. Louis Cardinals +1200
New York Mets +1400
Philadelphia Phillies +1400
Milwaukee Brewers +1900
Cincinnati Reds +4000
San Francisco Giants +4000

*Odds taken on 08/10/19. 

The Mets most recently qualified for postseason play in 2016 as an NL Wild Card team.

Amazing Mets

Friday’s 7-6 win over the Washington Nationals was a prime example of how it’s all been falling into place lately for the Mets.

Trailing 6-3 in the bottom of the ninth, they lit up Nationals closer Sean Doolittle. Todd Frazier tied the score, clouting a three-run homer. Michael Conforto completed the comeback, knocking a two-out, RBI single for the walkoff win. The Mets were 0-7 in their previous seven walkoff decisions.

On A Roll

The rally enabled New York to put together its second seven-game win streak in the past 15 games. It’s the first 14-1 stretch by the Mets since 1990.

Even with their hot streak, they’ve only been able to reduce the Atlanta Braves’ lead atop the NL East to eight games. If the playoffs are to be reached by the Mets, it will be as a Wild Card team.

Through games of July 24, the Mets were 46-55. They sat eight games out of the second National League Wild Card spot. Today, they are within a half game of a playoff position.

Revisiting 1969?

In 1969, New York rallied from a 10-game deficit to win the NL East. Like this year’s team, they’d posted losing seasons in each of the two previous campaigns.

The 1969 Mets went on to beat the Braves for the NL Pennant and defeated the Baltimore Orioles to win the World Series.

Is Mets’ NL Pennant Drive All A Mirage?

There were puzzled looks at the July 31 MLB trade deadline when the Mets held on to pitchers Noah Syndergaard and Zack Wheeler and dealt with the Toronto Blue Jays to add Marcus Stroman to an already stout starting rotation.

2019 National League Wild Card Contenders

Team Home Away Runs Scored Runs Allowed Above-.500 Teams
Washington Nationals 31-25 30-29 574 529 28-36
Milwaukee Brewers 34-24 27-32 563 583 35-28
St. Louis Cardinals 32-23 27-32 504 492 30-35
New York Mets 33-20 27-36 561 547 29-40
Philadelphia Phillies 34-26 26-30 550 578 35-37
Arizona Diamondbacks 27-28 32-29 603 526 32-31

During their winning streak, the Mets made hay against baseball’s bottom feeders. They went 12-1 against a combination of the Pittsburgh Pirates, Miami Marlins and Chicago White Sox.

New York is a dismal 29-40 against above-.500 clubs, the worst mark among NL teams with winning records. They’re 17-21 against teams currently holding NL playoff spots.

The Mets could be an NL Wild Card team but that’s as good as it’ll get. Looking to bet an NL East team to win the NL Pennant? Play the Braves.

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