Mets Keep Syndergaard, Wheeler at Trade Deadline; Still +4000 to Win the NL Pennant

• The New York Mets acquired Marcus Stroman at the trade deadline, while retaining Noah Syndergaard and Zack Wheeler
• The Mets’ front office thinks their team is a contender even though they’re three games under .500
• This team is not a good bet to win the AL East division title or the 2019 World Series

The New York Mets engaged in a very bizarre trade deadline. They somewhat improved themselves by adding Marcus Stroman to an already-solid starting rotation, while dealing veteran lefty Jason Vargas to the Phillies and retaining their major trade chips (Noah Syndergaard and Zack Wheeler).

On the surface, that might be a good thing for their chances this season, but wouldn’t a full-on rebuild be the better strategy? They remain massive longshots in the odds to win the NL Pennant as they would have to make up 4.5 games and leapfrog five teams just to get a Wild Card.

Odds to Win 2019 NL Pennant

Odds taken 08/01/19.

Stroman Improves Mets … But Not Enough

It just feels like a bit of the same ‘ol Mets. They went into the season thinking they were on the cusp of contention but reality has proven otherwise. Even though they’ve won five in a row, they are still 11.5 games back in the National League East division race, 4.5 back of a Wild Card spot, and three games under .500.

Being 4.5 back in the Wild Card race doesn’t sound insurmountable, until you consider that they’d have to pass all of Arizona, San Francisco, Milwaukee, Philadelphia, and Washington.

And even if they somehow get to the playoffs, this roster is in no shape to contend for a World Series.

Even though that’s the reality, the Mets traded away prospects to acquire Marcus Stroman. The oft-inconsistent pitcher for the Toronto Blue Jays is in the midst of a career year and is under control for next season. They also moved Vargas to the Mets, as mentioned, and even though the journeyman is outperforming his peripherals (4.01 ERA vs 5.22 xFIP), swapping him out for Stroman is a very minor uptick in the grand scheme of things.

Does it make their starting pitcher better? Yes, slightly. But it’s also like buying shiny new rims for a broken-down car that you should replace. It doesn’t make sense.

Mets Rotation Is Better

What’s interesting is that the Mets rotation could now be one of the best in baseball. With Jacob DeGrom, a possibly revitalized Noah Syndergaard, Steven Matz, Zack Wheeler, and Stroman, the Mets could legitimately the third-best rotation behind Houston and Washington.

The issue is that there are so many other problems with the team. The bullpen has the third-worst ERA (5.26) and xFIP (5.02) in baseball and the batting order (which sits 19th in runs scored) could have used a boost.

Instead, a team that’s under .500 added to an area of strength. If they fill the holes in the offseason, they could be good. However, they’re not good now and, counterintuitively, when it comes to the Mets’ futures, now is what matters.

Other National League Teams Got Better

While the Mets were moderately improving their team’s biggest strength, many of the teams they’re chasing got a lot better at the deadline by shoring up their biggest weaknesses.

[M]any of the teams [the Mets are] chasing got a lot better at the deadline by shoring up their biggest weaknesses.

In their division, alone, the Washington Nationals, whose main weakness is their bullpen, added three arms in Daniel Hudson, Roenis Elias and Hunter Strickland.

The Atlanta Braves, who also don’t have many weaknesses other than their bullpen, got a huge boost with closer Shane Greene and red-hot reliever Mark Melancon.

Even the Philadelphia Phillies picked up outfielder Corey Dickerson and boosted their subpar pitching with Vargas. If the Mets were trying to contend for this year, they didn’t do enough.

Mets Are Clueless, Don’t Bet On Them

The Mets could very well have one of the best rotations in baseball next year – especially if they keep Zack Wheeler, who is a pending free agent. But the smarter moves would have been to trade Wheeler and Syndergaard, pass on Stroman, and collect as many young prospects as they can for the future.

First-time general manager Brodie Van Wagenen overvalued his team in the preseason, thinking that they’re a contender, and has done it again. They don’t need a retooling; they need a complete rebuild.