MLB Odds: The Battle for October Reign

It took until the beginning of Rocktober, but we’ve finally found our ten World Series hopefuls for the 2016 MLB Playoffs. The Toronto Blue Jays and Baltimore Orioles will get things kicked off Tuesday night, as the winner of their one-game wild card will vie for the AL Crown against the Texas Rangers, Boston Red Sox and Cleveland Indians.

The NL side will see the Chicago Cubs, Washington Nationals, Los Angeles Dodgers, San Francisco Giants and New York Mets duke things out; with the winner hitting the road for the Fall Classic (thanks to the AL winning yet another All Star Game).

While it’s supposedly anybody’s playoffs to win, the two biggest favorites this postseason are motivated by some historic storylines. The Cubs are trying to finally put an end to their historic, 107-year-long title drought (the longest in North American sports, by a wide margin). Meanwhile, the Red Sox are trying to send David Ortiz – one of the most likable guys in baseball history – into retirement with one final championship.

Will any of these AL teams spoil Big Papi’s retirement? Will any NL squads continue the “Curse of the Billy Goat?” Once again, Matt and I have teamed up to give you an absurd amount of odds for another captivating year of playoff baseball. You can find those odds right below this sentence.

2016 MLB Playoff Odds

Title Odds

Odds to win World Series:

• Chicago Cubs: 11/4
• Boston Red Sox: 9/2
• Los Angeles Dodgers: 7/1
• Cleveland Indians: 9/1
• Texas Rangers: 9/1
• Washington Nationals: 9/1
• Toronto Blue Jays: 12/1
• New York Mets: 16/1
• San Francisco Giants: 20/1
• Baltimore Orioles: 24/1

Although they don’t have a well-known curse, the Indians and Rangers currently have the second and third longest title droughts in the MLB. Yet they aren’t getting much playoff love, be it their lack of experience, or a lack of confidence in their pitching staff. But as we saw with the Royals of last season, sometimes you don’t need most dominant arms in the game to be the last team left standing.

Thanks to the potential for one loss eliminating them, the Wild Card teams are all longshots. But it really shouldn’t be a shock if one of those teams goes on a run: since the Wild Card expanded to two teams, three of the last four NL Wild Cards have gone on to win at least one series after that. Remember how the Giants always win the World Series in even numbered years? Don’t say you weren’t warned plenty of times.

Odds to win AL pennant

• Boston Red Sox: 5/3
• Cleveland Indians: 7/2
• Texas Rangers: 4/1
• Toronto Blue Jays: 5/1
• Baltimore Orioles: 10/1

Despite finishing with homefield advantage, something is just not right about the Texas Rangers. Perhaps it’s their dreadful run differential? Or their near-the-bottom of the AL team ERA? Or a potential first round matchup with last year’s playoff foil, the Blue Jays? Whatever it is, it’s not unreasonable to look at the matchup between the Indians and Red Sox and think the eventual American League champ comes out of that series.

Odds to win NL pennant

• Chicago Cubs: 13/10
• Los Angeles Dodgers: 3/1
• Washington Nationals: 5/1
• New York Mets: 9/1
• San Francisco Giants: 10/1

There’s an excitement around the north side of Chicago that hasn’t been felt in years. But this new generation of Cubs fans doesn’t seem to have any grasp of Murphy’s Law. Just because this Cubs team seems unstoppable, doesn’t mean things can’t go sour for one of sports most tortured fanbases.

Can the Nationals be the one to play spoilers? Or can the Dodgers honor Vin Scully with their first title since 1988? Everything and anything is possible.

Odds of winning the AL Wild Card Game

• Toronto Blue Jays: 3/4
• Baltimore Orioles: 4/3

A lot of teams are rubbed the wrong way by the overexuberant Jays, but Baltimore was one of the first. While they’d love to shut their division rivals up once and for all, the O’s are just 7-12 at the Rogers Centre over the last two seasons.

Odds of winning the NL Wild Card Game

• New York Mets: 5/6
• San Francisco Giants: 6/5

If you had a choice of any pitchers across the league to get you a must-win game, it’s hard to find two better options than Madison Bumgarner and Noah Syndergaard. Bumgarner is 7-3 in his postseason career with a 2.14 ERA. Syndergaard went 2-1 last fall in his first playoff experience, but he’ll also have homefield advantage, where his career ERA is nearly a half-run better.

Posteason Props

Odds of blowing a save in the Wild Card Game

• Sergio Romo: 9/1
• Jeurys Familia: 15/1
• Roberto Osuna: 15/1 
• Zach Britton: 50/1

The Giants have blown more saves than any other team in baseball, and can’t feel great about whoever they trot out in a save situation. Asking Bumgarner to go the distance would probably be the most preferable option. As for Britton, he hasn’t blown a save since September of last year; it’d be a shock to see him start now.

Odds to be first manager ejected from a 2016 MLB playoff game:

• John Gibbons: 3/2
• Jeff Banister: 6/1
• John Farrell: 8/1
• Terry Francona: 8/1
• Joe Maddon: 10/1
• Terry Collins: 12/1
• Dave Roberts: 16/1
• Bruce Bochy: 18/1
• Buck Showalter: 26/1
• Dusty Baker: 40/1

With more than double the ejections of any other playoff manager, Gibbons is the clear-cut favorite to get tossed from a playoff game. But given the bad blood between he and Bannister’s Rangers, the Texas manager could get pushed to the edge, should the two teams meet in the ALDS again.

Over/under number of sweeps during 2016 MLB playoffs: 2

Playoff baseball is as much about hot/cold streaks as anything else. If you have a bad couple of days, you won’t be long for October. The league has averaged two sweeps a postseason over the last decade, so no matter how strong you think the playoff field is, they always end up happening.

Over/under total home runs hit during 2016 MLB playoffs: 72.5

Last year saw a dramatic spike in October dingers, (up to 91 after only 57 in 2014) and with more masher teams making up the playoff field, it certainly feels like another postseason of long balls is in order. However, there’s been an average of just 68 home runs per playoffs since 2009.

Odds Steve Bartman will be seen at Wrigley Field during 2016 MLB playoffs: 100/1

He declined the offer last season to attend a Cubs playoff game, and expectations weren’t that high entering the playoffs. After winning 103 games this season, Bartman won’t want to risk having his name attached to a possible upset. – Matt McEwan

If the Cubs win the World Series, odds Steve Bartman attends the parade: 9/1

Although it’s difficult to imagine what could go wrong – interference with the float? – Bartman really doesn’t seem eager to put himself out in the spotlight again. Even if he did attend, I doubt he would admit to it. – Matt McEwan

Odds a fan interferes with game-deciding play in 8th inning or later of at least one game during 2016 MLB playoffs: 50/1

Although Caleb Humphreys made a name for himself last year, his interference came in the second inning of play in the ALCS. While it is very unlikely that we see another opportunity for a Steve Bartman or Jeffrey Maier to rise, stadium seating certainly allows for it. – Matt McEwan

Odds Vin Scully will appear in television booth during national broadcast of at least one 2016 playoff game: 3/2

Is there a bigger name in baseball broadcasting than Vin Scully? Why wouldn’t Fox bring him on for an inning of the Dodgers first home game of the NLDS? – Matt McEwan

Odds of Alex Rodriguez announcing that he is not retired during the Fox broadcast: 12/1

The odds of this were a lot shorter before A-Rod accepted a minor league instructor position with the Yankees. Maybe being around all the youth will inspire that itch, though. – Matt McEwan

Odds of Pete Rose or Alex Rodriguez discussing the Hall of Fame during a Fox broadcast: 3/1

It’s pretty reasonable to assume that Fox has given the two strict orders to avoid the topic, but when have either of them obeyed the rules? – Matt McEwan

Over/under on number of different MLB players who will kneel during the national anthem or God Bless America during an MLB Playoff game: 3.5

We have yet to see Colin Kaepernick’s protest reach the MLB, but certain players have spoken out in support of it. Now that we have reached October, and all games will be nationally televised, the stage is there for those who want to make a statement. Although, we may be more likely to see an anthem stand-off. – Matt McEwan

Odds of a no-hitter being pitched in the playoffs: 66/1

In over 100 years of postseason play, there have only been two no-hitters recorded: Don Larsen and Roy Halladay. But, when you have guys like Clayton Kershaw, Madison Bumgarner, and anyone from the Cubs rotation scheduled to pitch, a third one is always a possibility. – Matt McEwan

Over/under number of walk-off home runs to decide playoffs games: 0.5

Over/under number of games decided by a walk-off hit during the MLB playoffs: 1.5

The 2015 playoffs only saw one game decided in walk-off fashion, and it came in Game 1 of the World Series on a sac-fly; how exciting! The relievers were dominant last season, but with shaky bullpens like those in Toronto and Texas, a ninth inning rally is very possible. – Matt McEwan

Odds the first play overturned by replay during playoffs will be:

• Play at Home Plate: 3/1
• Stolen base: 3/1
• Play at first base: 4/1
• Fair/Foul Ball: 9/1
• FIELD: 4/1

The most commonly challenged play in the majors this year was a tag play, whether it be at second, third, or home plate – 40.03-percent. While they don’t all get overturned, we’re bound to see plenty of tag plays with the heightened desire for small-ball the postseason brings. – Matt McEwan

Daily Doubles

NL Team wins the World Series, Hillary Clinton wins presidential election: 8/5

NL Team wins the World Series, Donald Trump wins presidential election: 11/5

AL Team wins the World Series, Hillary Clinton wins presidential election: 5/1

AL Team wins the World Series, Donald Trump wins presidential election: 13/2

Photo Credit: Keith Allison (Originally uploaded to Flickr)[https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/]