Mookie Betts’ NL MVP Odds Take Big Drop from +467 to +528; Second-Favorite Acuna Improves to +533

• Los Angeles Dodgers star Mookie Betts is favored to win the National League MVP award
• But Betts’ odds have lengthened as we’ve neared the start of the season
• Players like Ronald Acuna Jr., Cody Bellinger have seen their odds shorten

The 2018 American League Most Valuable Player, Mookie Betts, has long been favored to win the 2020 National League Most Valuable Player Award. However, his odds have lengthened recently while some other contenders have shortened.

Who is the best bet to win this award as the 2020 season approaches?

2020 NL MVP Odds

Odds taken July 8, 2020.

Betts’ Odds Get Longer as Season Approaches

The Los Angeles Dodgers acquisition of Betts was one of the biggest stories of the offseason and, when he was first acquired, he was immediately inserted as the favorite to win the NL MVP.

As recently as June 26, the 2020 NL MVP odds showed him on the board at an average price of +468. As the season approaches, he’s now at +528.

#Dodgers Mookie Betts taking grounders at SS. There goes Dave Roberts with his lineup tinkering again! pic.twitter.com/OrUbchiesB

— Bill Plunkett (@billplunkettocr) July 4, 2020

For the most part, there has really been no change in the player or team situation. Betts is still the same guy. However, it appears that bettors feel there is more risk involved with betting the favorite since the season is only going to be 60 games. That could make this challenging in the case that he has a slow start or slumps at all.

One somewhat reasonable comparison is Giancarlo Stanton, who signed with the New York Yankees in the 2018 offseason. At the end of the year, he still finished with 38 home runs, 100 RBI, and a WAR of 4.0, which is stellar. But he had just nine home runs and 25 RBI in the first two months of the season – 53 games – so that gives you a window into how long a slump can last.

That being the case, is there value with others?

Bettors Like Acuna, Yelich, and Bellinger

Just as we’ve seen Betts’ odds get longer, a few other players’ odds have improved. Bettors seem interested in Ronald Acuna Jr., who has gone from +550 to +533 on average. Christian Yelich improved from +613 to +538 and Cody Bellinger has gone from +1025 to +967.

Ronald Acuna working on keeping his hands high for a flatter swing path through contact & low liners off the tee. The feel of staying on top of the ball can help hitters who struggle with dumping the barrel under the pitch plane like the swing in the next cage pic.twitter.com/M9vt8LgitP

— Jeff Leach (@CoachJeffLeach) July 5, 2020

All three players are returning to the same team they’ve been with for years, so perhaps bettors believe that stability leaves them less vulnerable to a slow start than Betts, who is joining, not just a new team, but a new league.

What’s the Best Bet?

In my eyes, these types of props are a crapshoot. For one, the season is just 60 games, so anything can happen. A player could conceivably slump through the entire year. Secondly, the COVID-19 pandemic can throw things for a loop. A player could be hot, then catch it, and be forced out for a couple of weeks.

We could also see the COVID-19 pandemic have alternate impacts. For example, let’s say you bet Betts but Bellinger catches the virus. That means he might have less protection in the lineup. Or maybe a key pitcher in a division catches it, so then the other teams in the division benefit from not having to face an ace.

Manny Machado’s swag 🔥 pic.twitter.com/0PaOgd76gY

— Baseball Bros (@BaseballBros) July 5, 2020

With all of these factors adding to the risk, I’m only willing to make a small play. I would also want a huge payout potential if I’m taking this risk. That means I’d look at guys like Nolan Arenado, who has had fast starts in recent years. He batted .425 in May last season and .327 in 2018. Also, it appears the Rockies have had a bout with COVID-19, so maybe he’s already passed it.

Besides him, I might look at someone like Manny Machado. If the San Diego Padres put it all together in a short season and he lights it up, he could be in contention too. He’s on the board at 30/1, so given the risk, I’d take a flier there too.