Nationals’ NL Pennant Odds Fade to +870 with Brewers Looming in NL Wild Card Game

• The Washington Nationals and Milwaukee Brewers are holding NL Wild Card spots
• If things stay the same over the next week, they’ll face off in the Wild Card game
• Barring a collapse or two, which team is the better bet?

As the season winds down, there are just a handful of playoff races left to be decided. One is the NL Wild Card.

The Washington Nationals lead the Milwaukee Brewers by half a game for the first Wild Card spot. The Cubs, the closest competition to either, are four games back of the second spot.

2019 NL Pennant Odds

*Odds taken 09/24/2019

The Nationals hit a season high of +730 on August 26. Since then they’ve slid down our NL Pennant Odds Tracker to average odds of +870.

Milwaukee has been going the other way. They had fallen all the way to +3000 on September 3. Now they’re at an average of +1000, and they’ve won 15 of 17 since September 6th.

So assuming the Cubs don’t somehow climb their way back in, who has the better chance between the two Wild Card combatants?

How Do The Pitching Staffs Stack Up?

We’re in the season of skipped starts, bullpen sessions and game-planning. So while we could map out who a potential starter would be for either side, we don’t know who it’ll be for sure.

But we can examine who has the advantage when it comes to starters.

Milwaukee Brewers Potential Starters

*Stats after being acquired by Milwaukee

The Brewers have effective options, but their issue is that they don’t go very deep. Zach Davies leads the team in starts and innings pitched, but averages just over five innings per start. Brandon Woodruff, meanwhile, has thrown just two innings in each of his starts since returning from the Injured List.

Brewers pitching has been a different animal after rosters expand.

'18 pre-9/1: 3.94 ERA (15th of 30)
'18 post 9/1: 2.70 ERA (1st of 30)

'19 pre-9/1: 4.48 ERA (18th of 30)
'19 post-9/1: 3.22 ERA (2nd of 30)

— Adam McCalvy (@AdamMcCalvy) September 20, 2019

For Milwaukee, it could quickly become a bullpen game.

Washington Nationals Potential Starters

Frankly there’s almost no reason to throw Sanchez out there. He’s had an excellent season, but one of Strasburg, Corbin and Scherzer will pitch this game.

The advantage is with Washington when it comes to starting pitching. The reason? They have three shutdown arms that they can trot out for a winner take all game.

#Nats broadcast just highlighted that the team has THREE of the top FIVE strikeout leaders in the NL.

None of the other top eight will be pitching in October.@Nationals have swing and miss stuff — if only the bullpen can ever pull itself together… pic.twitter.com/167HiuktVs

— Eric Martin (@EMPosts) September 24, 2019

That isn’t to say that things can’t go south for either side early. But a worst case scenario for the Brewers may mean they have to burn key bullpen arms.

Offensive Comparison: Brewers vs Nationals Last 14 Days

Both teams sit below their season marks in batting average, OBP, Slugging Percentage and BA-BiP(Batting Average on Balls in Play). While that’s good news for both, it does spark the question of whether this is the new norm for the Brewers without Christian Yelich.

Christian Yelich went down Sept. 10. Brewers since then:

.201 avg (last MLB)
.148 with RISP (last MLB)
72 wRC+ (12th of 15 NL)

3.26 ERA (4th NL)
3.47 FIP (3rd NL)
11.7 K/9 (2nd NL)

They are 7-2.

— Adam McCalvy (@AdamMcCalvy) September 20, 2019

The Nationals are top three in the NL in average, OBP, and OPS for the season. Milwaukee is hovering closer to the league averages in all three.

Going back to the starting staffs, any three of the big arms could pose significant problems for the Brewers. Along with losing their best hitter in Yelich, the Brewers are second in the NL in strikeouts.

Can Either NL Wild Card Team win the NL Pennant?

In the one game playoff, we’re leaning towards the Nationals over the Brewers, regardless of home field. Their pennant odds, however, depend who they face in the NLDS.

As it stands, the Dodgers have the inside track to home field advantage. They’re unlikely to give it up. Neither team has a winning record against LA, with both going 3-4 this year.

Cc: Brewers as well. Will be super lame if it’s Brewers Nats when neither team has a chance to make noise. Cubs and Mets are bigger threats but neither gonna make it https://t.co/qx74dOG60F

— KFC (@KFCBarstool) September 24, 2019

If, somehow, it’s the Braves that take home-field advantage, the Nationals are worth considering. Washington has a losing record against Atlanta (8-11), but have outscored them 101-97 this year.

The Dodgers have an easy six games to close out the season however, so it would be shocking to see them finish second.

They provide little to no value, but it’s the Dodgers’ race to lose.