NL MVP Odds Heavily Favor Bellinger (-200) But Yelich Not Out of the Race at +175

• Cody Bellinger is heavily favored (-200) to take home NL MVP
• Christian Yelich, Ronald Acuna Jr, and Anthony Rendon round out the field
• Is Bellinger a lock to win, or is there value in the field?

Cody Bellinger had an outstanding season for the LA Dodgers.

Bellinger finished third in the National League in home runs and seventh in RBI. He was top-three in On-Base Percentage, Slugging Percentage and OPS, too. The Dodgers’ slugger was also healthy all year, playing in 156 games.

All of that leads to him being the favorite for NL MVP.

2019 NL MVP Odds

*Odds taken 10/02/2019.

Bellinger has been a strong favorite since the calendar flipped to July. On July 2nd, he was listed at -130. Since then, he’s been as high as -325 on SBD’s NL MVP odds tracker.

Oddly enough, NL batting champion Christian Yelich’s odds have actually improved since his season ended prematurely. He was +300 at the beginning of September and now sits at +175.

That likely has to do with Bellinger hitting five home runs and driving in 14 RBI in September, his lowest production in any month in 2019.

2019 NL MVP Comparison

The interesting thing about this race is that Bellinger, while favored, only cleared the field in home runs and WAR.

Judging from the odds, Ronald Acuna Jr was likely hurt the most by his late-season injury.

My Top-10 NL MVP Rankings:

1. Cody Bellinger
2. Christian Yelich
3. Ronald Acuna Jr.
4. Anthony Rendon
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.
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5. Ketel Marte
6. Nolan Arenado
7. Jacob deGrom
8. Trevor Story
9. Max Scherzer
10. Pete Alonso

— Rick Heidrick (@rheidrick24) September 29, 2019

Acuna flashed his speed in year two, leading the four in steals. He finished three shy of a 40/40 season due to a hip injury that sidelined him for the last week of the season. Not reaching the rare milestone could hurt his status in the eyes of voters. Looking at the numbers, he’s last among the other three candidates in everything but home runs and RBI.

For Anthony Rendon, he may be doomed to wall-flower status too. His counting stats are good. While he’s last in homers, he’s first in RBI and topped Bellinger in OBP and average.

Anthony Rendon hears the “MVP” chants. He appreciates the recognition, but doesn’t like the attention. Go figure. pic.twitter.com/VhYKnHKe26

— Bobby Blanco (@Bobby_Blanco) October 3, 2019

Call to the Pen had an interesting breakdown of Rendon’s season. Their conclusion? It could depend on how voters feel about his WAR. It may be a significant detractor.

An NL MVP Case for Christian Yelich

Yelich’s season was cut short on September 10 by a fractured knee cap.

If you’re familiar with what happened to the Brewers down the stretch, you know they were hot. So hot, in fact, it could conceivably hurt Yelich’s case for NL MVP.

Crowd chanting "MVP!" as Rendon came to plate. I looked down but couldn't see if Yelich doffed his cap from #Brewers dugout. That's going to be an interesting vote, with Bellinger the third man in.

— Tom (@Haudricourt) October 2, 2019

Detractors could be saying “how could a team perform so well with their best player missing in action?” It’s a fair question.

FanGraphs Comparison: Yelich vs Bellinger

When it comes to analytics, Yelich’s raw power (ISO), Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA), and weighted Runs Created (wRC+) top Bellinger’s. With wRC+, an average score is 100, and both are well past that.

https://twitter.com/WiscoSports4/status/1171763025856143360

While we’ll never know what Yelich would have done with those last few weeks before his injury, we know what he was doing put him in elite company. Last year he finished with a wRC+ of 166. And when was the last time someone finished a full season over 170?

Bryce Harper (197) and Joey Votto (174) in 2015. With Harper winning NL MVP.

Can Yelich Upset Bellinger Again?

Ultimately there’s a reason that Bellinger has been favored for so long. He’s been an all-encompassing stud all season. But there’s no value there.

There is a chance, and it’s not as slim as his injury makes it seem, that Yelich takes home NL MVP for a second-straight season. The numbers line up really well, especially when you compare his totals to the rest of the Brewers.

Yelich is the underdog here, but his season undoubtedly justifies a bet as he squares off with Bellinger.