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Odds Against Yasiel Puig Being Dealt by MLB Trade Deadline

Yasiel Puig
Will Yasiel Puig be on the move again in 2019? Photo by Arturo Pardavila III (Wikimedia Commons) [CC License].
  • Yasiel Puig was traded to the Reds from the Dodgers in the offseason
  • Last year Puig hit 23 home runs and 63 RBI in 125 games
  • Puig is in the final year of his contract and will earn $9.7 million this season

New team, same old story for Yasiel Puig.

After years in the rumor mill as part of the Los Angeles Dodgers, Puig was finally dealt this off-season to the Cincinnati Reds.  That hasn’t stopped his name from being included on lists of potential mid-season targets and BetOnline has jumped on board with a futures bet regarding his future.

Will Yasiel Puig Be Traded Before July 31st?

Will Yasiel Puig Be Traded by July 31st, 2019? Odds at BetOnline
Yes +200
No -300

*Odds taken 03/15/19

The odds suggest Puig will stay where he’s at until the end of the season. If these were even odds I’d disagree with that assessment, and since you can cash in +200 by betting “Yes”, that’s clearly where the value is for this futures bet.

Contract Demands Too Rich for the Reds?

Puig is a pending free agent slated to make only $9.7 million in 2019. He’ll be looking for quite the pay bump on the free agent market and to do so he’d need to reach free agency. I don’t see the Reds offering a contract so enticing Puig will opt not to engage teams in a bidding war for his services. With that in mind, will Cincinnati risk letting him walk for free? Probably not, when the return for him could involve multiple young pieces from a desperate team at the deadline.

Will the Reds Contend for a Playoff Spot?

There’s no doubting the Reds improved this offseason, but they finished 2018 last in the NL Central 28.5 games behind the Milwaukee Brewers. Puig and some other pieces won’t be enough to make up that amount of ground. With the Reds likely to be on the outside of the playoff picture looking in, it would be in their best interest to get as much as they can for Puig.

In only 125 games last year Puig hit 23 home runs, drove in 63 runs and swiped 15 bases.  Playing a full season in 2017 he put up 28 HR and again added 15 stolen bases. Forget Puig the personality, Puig the baseball player is pretty impressive and a piece many teams would like to add to their postseason roster.

Forget Puig the personality, Puig the baseball player is pretty impressive and a piece many teams would like to add to their postseason roster.

A potential 30-20 outfielder that’s still only 28 years old will have teams lining up. It just wouldn’t make sense for him to lock in with a team that’s almost never a playoff threat before listening to the pitches from other suitors. With that being the logic, it wouldn’t make sense for the Reds to let him walk for nothing.

Pick: Yes (+200)

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