Padres’ 2020 World Series Odds Improve to +1700 After Trading for Clevinger

• Monday’s trade for pitcher Mike Clevinger was San Diego’s fifth acquisition in three days 
• Padres have seen their World Series odds improve from a long of +4167 two weeks ago to +1700 today
• Read on for a full analysis of the team’s World Series chances

San Diego Padres GM A.J. Preller has clearly been working the phones all weekend. With Monday’s nine-player trade for front-of-the-rotation starter Mike Clevinger, Preller just put the wraps on his fifth trade since Saturday, looking to propel his team even further into contender status.

2020 World Series Odds

Odds taken Aug. 31.

The team, which heads into Monday night’s game at Colorado five games back of the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL West, has also picked up first baseman Mitch Moreland, a pair of catchers in Austin Nola and Jason Castro, and closer Trevor Rosenthal. As a result, the Friars have also seen their 2020 World Series odds slashed too, from +4167 two weeks ago to +1700 today.

#Padres acquisitions in the last 48 hours:
Mike Clevinger
Mitch Moreland
Austin Nola
Jason Castro
Austin Adams
Dan Altavilla
Trevor Rosenthal

AJ Preller can make a deal – or 5!

— Jayson Stark (@jaysonst) August 31, 2020

What Clevinger Brings

The 29-year-old right-hander has pitched his entire major-league career with the Cleveland Indians in the American League. Pitching in the shadow of Trevor Bauer and Cy Young-winner Corey Kluber for most of that time, Clevinger established himself as a dependable third wheel in Cleveland.

Best ERA in MLB since 2017
(Min. 460 IP)

1. Jacob deGrom (2.49)
2. Clayton Kershaw (2.64)
3. Max Scherzer (2.71)
4. Justin Verlander (2.82)
5. Mike Clevinger (2.97) pic.twitter.com/M7GLLkRC9e

— CBS Sports HQ (@CBSSportsHQ) August 31, 2020

He has started at least 21 games in each of the past three seasons and has won at least 12 games – twice winning 13 – while lowering his ERA from 3.11 to 2.71 in 2019. He also lowered his WHIP each year, reaching 1.056 in 2019, a season in which he also struck out a career-high 12.1 batters per nine innings pitched.

.@Padres acquire RHP Mike Clevinger, OF Greg Allen, PTBN from @Indians for SS Gabriel Arias, LHP Joey Cantillo, C Austin Hedges, INF Owen Miller, 1B/OF Josh Naylor, RHP Cal Quantrill. pic.twitter.com/skJaGAt3WG

— MLBRosterMoves (@MLBRosterMoves) August 31, 2020

He will benefit from the pitcher-friendly ballpark in San Diego, too. Petco Park currently ranks 21 out of all 32 teams’ home parks in terms of having an effect on run generation, according to ESPN’s rankings. Petco in fact, has a negative impact on run generation.

Friars on Fire at the Plate

With a 21-15 record through August 30, the San Diego Padres are very much in the postseason mix in this truncated season. Their GM clearly feels that the team is poised to go on an extended run in the playoffs, particularly given the expanded nature of this year’s postseason.

Who would you rather build a team around?

Fernando Tatis Jr or Mike Trout? pic.twitter.com/z2ix6K4Iu2

— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) August 29, 2020

Offense hasn’t been a problem for the Padres. Led by Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado, the Padres are the leading run scorers in Major League Baseball, with 205 through Aug. 30, one more than the rival Dodgers, who sit five games in front of them at the NL West summit.

And it must be noted that in the seven head-to-head games between the rivals, the Dodgers have a slim 4-3 lead.

Powering up the Pitching

However, the Padres’ team ERA of 4.44 is just ahead of the league-average 4.46, and miles behind the MLB-leading Dodgers and their 2.76 mark. Chris Paddack, who entered the season as the team’s de facto ace as a second-year pitcher, started well, but has regressed. His 3-3 record and 4.43 ERA aren’t where the team would like them.

Padres starting rotation after acquiring Mike Clevinger:

• Chris Paddack
• Dinelson Lamet
• Mike Clevinger
• Zach Davies
• Garrett Richards pic.twitter.com/bqdmlqUqYu

— Danny Vietti (@DannyVietti) August 31, 2020

But San Diego has benefited from the development of the young arms of Zach Davies and Dinelson Lamet, who are a combined 7-3 in 14 starts, with ERAs of 2.61 and 2.35, respectively.

Mike Clevinger's 2019 Highlights. pic.twitter.com/N3cYQ3ZffB

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) August 31, 2020

The Padres clearly feel that Clevinger will fit right in at the front of that rotation as well as being able to lead that young core, and provide the pitching support that the team’s elite offense sorely needs.

Postseason Outlook

Though the Dodgers are clearly the team to beat in the National League – and quite possibly the entire MLB – they have been known to suffer playoff power outages in years past.

448 feet.@tatis_jr is the second player ever to send a home run ball to the rooftop of the Western Metal Building. pic.twitter.com/lcppersnfJ

— San Diego Padres (@Padres) August 27, 2020

The expanded 16-team playoffs almost makes the Padres a lock for the postseason, but playing into October will be a new experience for many of their players. Tatis Jr has never played in the playoffs, while Machado has struggled. Even new ace Clevinger has only made one postseason start, though he did yield just one run in that five-inning outing against the Astros last year.

At +1700, the Friars might be a long shot to a win the franchise’s first World Series, but if they can get by the Dodgers in October, anything is possible.