Padres vs Cardinals Odds, Picks, and Probable Pitchers (Sep. 17)
- The Cardinals are -135 favorite at home against the Padres on Friday night
- Vince Velasquez (3-6, 5.95) pitches for the Padres against Miles Mikolas (0-2, 5.47)
- Odds and analysis can be found below with a prediction
In a pivotal game in the chase for the second National League wild card, the San Diego Padres visit the St. Louis Cardinals at 8:15 p.m. ET Friday in the opener of a three-game series at Busch Stadium.
The Cardinals (76-69, 39-33 home) lead the wild card standings by 0.5 games over the Padres (76-70, 32-39 away) and are on a five-game winning streak. The Cardinals are coming off a three-game sweep against the Mets in New York in which they scored 25 runs and are favored again.
The Padres won the last two games of a four-game series against the Giants in San Francisco to gain a split on the heels of a six-game losing streak. San Diego scored 16 runs in the two wins after plating just six runs during the skid.
Padres vs Cardinals Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Runline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego Padres | +115 | +1.5 (-160) | Over 9 (-105) |
| St. Louis Cardinals | -135 | -1.5 (+140) | Under 9 (-115) |
Odds as of September 17th at DraftKings.
The moneyline opened with the Cardinals as -140 favorites and has gone down slightly. The weather forecast calls for 82 degrees at first pitch with calm winds.
Probable Pitchers
San Diego will send Vince Velasquez (3-6, 5.95) to the mound in hopes he can stabilize an injury-ravage rotation in his Padres’ debut. Miles Mikolas (0-2, 5.47) will toe the slab for the Cardinals.
The Padres signed Velasquez on Wednesday after he was released by the Phillies. The 29-year-old last pitched in the major leagues July 30, getting rocked for five runs in two innings in a loss to the Pirates in Pittsburgh then was placed on the injured list with a blister on his right middle finger.
Velasquez vs Mikolas
| 3-6 | Record | 0-2 |
| 5.95 | ERA | 5.47 |
| 4.95 | xERA | 5.23 |
| 1.48 | WHIP | 1.40 |
| 1.89 | SO/W | 2.25 |
Velasquez made six rehab appearances (four starts) between Low-A Clearwater and Triple-A Lehigh Valley before being released and was 1-0 with a 2.63 ERA. He went 0-4 with a 12.23 ERA in his last five starts with the Phillies.
After years of tantalizing the Phillies with flashes of stardom, the fanbase seemed happy to Velasquez go.
VINCE VELASQUEZ IS GONE pic.twitter.com/jnWBLLJIkn
— Justin Lever 💚⚾️ (@JustinLever3) September 11, 2021
Velasquez’s last outing came Sept. 8 for Lehigh Valley against Worcester and he struck out nine in 3.2 innings while surrendering one run, one hit and one walk.
Just three of Velasquez’s 17 starts with the Phillies this season were quality ones, but Philadelphia did manage to go 8-9 in those games. He went 1-4 with a 7.05 ERA in 10 road games (nine starts) and 3-4 with a 5.88 ERA in 14 night games (11 starts).
Velasquez made one start and one relief appearance against the Cardinals in April, allowing three runs in 6.2 innings while not getting a decision in either game. He is 1-2 versus St. Louis in his career with a 5.22 ERA in six games (five starts) and has a 1-1 record and 4.91 ERA in three starts at Busch Stadium.
Mikolas is winless in six starts during a season that began on the IL as he continued to recover from Tommy John reconstructive elbow surgery and was then interrupted nearly three months by elbow tightness.
Miles Mikolas has been removed from the game. pic.twitter.com/8qenTRZkl7
— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) May 23, 2021
In his last start on Saturday against the Reds at Cincinnati, Mikolas had a no-decision. He gave up four runs and six hits in five innings with one strikeout and one walk.
Mikolas has yet to pitch more than five innings in 2021 and the Cardinals have split his six starts. At home, he is 0-2 with a 4.26 ERA in four starts while going 0-1 with a 3.93 ERA in four starts at night.
Facing the organization that drafted him in the seventh round in 2009, Mikolas is 1-1 with a 3.38 ERA in three career starts against the Padres. All three have been quality starts.
Down Won’t Go Frazier
Padres second baseman Adam Frazier has plenty of history against Mikolas and it’s good as he is 12 for 32 (.375) with four doubles and two home runs. First baseman Eric Hosmer has gone 4 for 9 (.444) with one double and one homer.
Batting Average vs Starting Pitchers
| Padres Batters | Batting Average vs Mikolas |
|---|---|
| Jake Marisnick | 1.000 |
| Eric Hosmer | .444 |
| Victor Caratini | .417 |
| Adam Frazier | .375 |
| Manny Machado | .333 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | .333 |
| Trent Grisham | .000 |
| Cardinals Batters | Batting Average vs Velasquez |
| Tyler O’Neill | 1.000 |
| Tommy Edman | .500 |
| Paul Goldschmidt | .333 |
| Paul DeJong | .286 |
| Dylan Carlson | .250 |
| Yadier Molina | .222 |
| Nolan Arenado | .177 |
| Matt Carpenter | .167 |
| Harrison Bader | .000 |
The Padres might also get Jake Cronenworth back. The infielder has sat out the last six games with a broken left ring finger.
Cronenworth’s presence in the lineup against Mikolas could cause confusion.
Miles Mikolas looks like witness protection Jake Cronenworth pic.twitter.com/ONEjgcA6DE
— Kourage Kundahl (@kouragekundahl) September 17, 2021
Cardinals third baseman Nolan Arenado is just 3 for 17 (.177) when facing Velasquez while striking out six times.
Padres-Cardinals Pick
The Padres swept the Cardinals in a three-game series from May 14-16 in San Diego and beat them in a National League Wild Card Series last October. In all, the Padres are 13-6 against the Cardinals since 2019.
Let’s go with recent history here – also look for the talented Velasquez to get a boost from switching teams – and take the Padres as underdogs.
The Pick: Padres moneyline (+115)
John Perrotto has been covering and writing about sports for various outlets for over 40 years. His work has appeared in the likes of USA TODAY, ESPN.com, SI.com, Forbes.com, The Associated Press, Baseball Digest, and more. John is based out of Beaver Falls, PA.
