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Philadelphia Phillies Pennant Odds Fading as Arrieta’s Season Ends & Harper Continues to Struggle

With their NL Pennant hopes fading, can Bryce Harper and the Philadelphia Phillies provide hidden value down the stretch? Photo by Kyle Ross/Icon Sportswire.
  • The Philadelphia Phillies entered Wednesday 5-8 in their last 13 games and have now lost Jake Arrieta for the year
  • Both their NL Pennant and World Series odds are beginning to slide
  • Is there any value remaining in betting Philadelphia?

For the Philadelphia Phillies, a season filled with so much promise has seen plenty of stumbles.

After signing Bryce Harper, their World Series odds rose to +1000. Now? They’ve fallen all the way to +3667.

With the news that Jake Arrieta is likely done for the year, are the Phillies too far gone?

NL Pennant Odds

NL Team Record GB Wild Card MyBookie NL Pennant Odds
Los Angeles Dodgers 81-41 N/A -130
Atlanta Braves 72-50 N/A +420
Washington Nationals 65-55 +1.0 +900
Chicago Cubs 64-56 0.0 +1000
St. Louis Cardinals 63-55 0.0 +1200
Milwaukee Brewers 63-58 1.5 +1600
Philadelphia Phillies 62-58 2.0 +1700
New York Mets 61-59 3.0 +1700

*Odds taken 08/14/2019

Currently there are six teams with better odds to win the NL Pennant than the Phils. And you can make a compelling case for all of them.

Not only are the Dodgers massive favorites, but there are three talented teams in the NL Central.

And that’s not even taking into account two of the hotter teams in baseball reside in the NL East along with the Phillies.

Our MLB Pennant Odds Tracker captures the movement perfectly. Since May 22nd, Philly have seen their NL Pennant odds increase just once.

Arrieta’s Injury Hampers Playoff Chances

While Arrieta’s overall season has not fallen in line with his career-long trends, it’s the last two months where pitching through the bone spur in his right elbow has really shown up in his performance.

Jake Arrieta Since June 1st

Period Starts Record ERA OPP BA K/BB
March-May 12 5-5 3.69 .266 62/27
June-August 12 3-3 5.49 .302 48/24

While it’s impossible to hang a team’s struggles on one pitcher, it’s eerie to see how Arrieta’s dramatic downturn has impacted their fortunes.

Take a look at how their monthly stats fell off around the time Arrieta really started to struggle..

Phillies’ Month-By-Month Results

Month Record Runs For Runs Against Run DIF
March/April 16-13 23 11 +12
May 17-11 138 120 +18
June 11-16 128 154 -26
July 12-11 96 124 -28
August 5-7 53 60 -7

*Entering Wednesday, August 14

If Arrieta had been pitching up to his normal standards, he’d fall close to Aaron Nola’s 3.67 ERA and 1.29 WHIP.

Looking at their starting staff, that would give them two pitchers with over 10 starts and an ERA under 4.00, rather than the one they have now.

Taking in their pitching as a whole, it’s hard to argue that would be a Pennant-saver though.

The Phillies are 19th in team ERA, 20th in WHIP, and 22nd in Opponent’s Average. Those have them in the bottom three among National League teams.

They’ve also surrendered the most home runs and fourth-most runs in the Senior Circuit.

Bryce Harper’s Also to Blame?

While he hasn’t fallen flat, Bryce Harper’s big price tag hasn’t synced up with his 2019 production yet.

Even with the understanding he was going to miss a large chunk of Spring Training, we had big expectations for him in this space. BIG expectations.

At this point, Harper is a long shot for most of those overs.

Bryce Harper’s 162 Game Averages vs 2019

Career Averages
VS
2019

.279 Average .253
32 Home Runs 24
91 RBI 83
107 Runs 71
146/102 K/BB 139/83
.512 Slugging Percentage .485

If Harper’s current power surge lasts the rest of the year, it would be music to the Phillies’ ears. And it could definitely help them in the race to make the playoffs.

But is it enough of a difference maker once they’re in?

Philadelphia Phillies Aren’t Worth it in NL Pennant Race

With a red-hot Harper or not, it’s not the bats that would doom the Phillies’ Pennant dreams.

It’s the pitching.

Likely losing Arrieta for the season stings. While he wasn’t pitching up to par, it at least gave Philly another reliable arm to guide them through a potential NLDS appearance.

But now? Their rotation has taken a severe hit.

And with a 23-28 record against the teams ahead of them in the odds, it shrinks their chances even more.

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