Phillies vs Astros World Series Odds Movement – Line Moving Towards Philadelphia
By John Perrotto in MLB Baseball
Published:
- The Astros are now -186 favorites over the Phillies in the World Series after opening at -200
- The World Series begins Friday night in Houston
- A look at the updated World Series odds and line movement can be found below with wagering advice
The Houston Astros are heavy favorites to win the World Series, but the odds are shifting in the Philadelphia Phillies’ direction.
The Astros opened at -200 while the Phillies were listed at +175. However, Houston is now at -186 and Philadelphia is at +160.
The best-of-seven series begins Friday night at Minute Maid Park in Houston.
World Series Odds
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Philadelphia Phillies | +160 |
| Houston Astros | -186 |
Odds as of October 25th at Barstool Sportsbook.
As -186 favorites in the World Series odds, the Astros have a 65.03% implied win probability. The Phillies’ implied win probability is 38.46% at +160 underdogs.
Odds Shift in Phillies’ Direction
The Astros opening at a big number was not a big surprise for a variety of reasons.
Most notably, Houston won 19 more game than the Phillies during the regular season. The Astros went 106-56 while Philadelphia finished 87-75.
Still not over this feeling. pic.twitter.com/VxBjlc9dxE
— Houston Astros (@astros) October 25, 2022
Though the Phillies have gone 9-2 in the MLB playoff bracket, the Astros are a perfect 6-0. Houston swept the Seattle Mariners in three games in an American League Division Series then the New York Yankees in four games in the American League Championship Series.
However, some bettors seemed to have latched on to the idea the Phillies might be a team of destiny.
Philadelphia was the last of the 12 teams to qualify for the postseason. The Phillies hadn’t been to the playoffs since 2011, a season in which they won the last of five consecutive National League East titles.
The @Phillies are WORLD SERIES BOUND for the first time since 2009 🔔 pic.twitter.com/qq6ZGjkDnN
— ESPN (@espn) October 23, 2022
In the postseason, the Phillies have swept the St. Louis Cardinals in two games in a NL Wild Card Series, beat the Atlanta Braves in four games in an NLDS then downed the San Diego Padres in five games in the NLCS.
Astros Hold Edge in All Categories
The Astros are a better team than the Phillies. The large gap in regular season wins by the two clubs is solid evidence.
However, the best team doesn’t always win the World Series. Proof of that came just a year ago when the Atlanta Braves upset the Astros in the Fall Classic.
The Atlanta Braves are your World Series Champs @betthebases
— Barstool Gambling (@stoolgambling) November 3, 2021
The Braves were just 88-73 in the regular season. Then they got hot in the postseason, going 11-5 and beat the favored Milwaukee Brewers and Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL playoffs.
The Phillies certainly have a puncher’s chance in this series, especially with a potent lineup that averaged 4.61 runs a game in the regular season and ranked seventh in the major leagues. Bryce Harper anchors a lineup that includes such heavy hitters as Kyle Schwarber, J.T. Realmuto, Rhys Hoskins, Nick Castellanos and Alec Bohm.
Harper is having a huge postseason that includes five home runs. His two-run blast in the eighth inning of Game 5 of the NLCS helped the Phillies finish off the Padres.
Bryce Harper, but Moneyball pic.twitter.com/9b4glvpTua
— Phillies Muse (@Phillies_Muse) October 24, 2022
The Astros were right behind the Phillies in runs scored with 4.55 a game that ranked eighth in MLB. The Astros’ batting order is difficult for any pitcher to navigate with such stars as Yordan Alvarez, Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman and Kyle Tucker.
What sets the teams apart is pitching and run prevention. Houston was second in the big leagues with 3.20 runs allowed while Philadelphia was 15th at 4.23. The 1.03 differential is significant.
The Phillies have two No. 1-type starters in Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola but then the rotation drops off. Meanwhile, the Astros can run out four starting pitchers who can dominate on any given day in Justin Verlander (despite his 0-6 career World Series record), Framber Valdez, Lance McCullers Jr. and Cristian Javier.
Verlander is expected to get the nod in Game 1 when the MLB starting lineups are announced.
Justin Verlander was FILTHY tonight! #postseason pic.twitter.com/lzZTbodfml
— MLB (@MLB) October 20, 2022
The Astros also have a big edge in the bullpen with closer Ryan Presley highlighting a deep corps of relievers. Houston had a 2.80 relief ERA in the regular season. Philadelphia had a 4.27 mark.
The Phillies are a good story as they try to become the first third-place team ever to win the World Series. However, the Astros are the way to go, especially with their price lowering.
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Sports Writer
John Perrotto has been covering and writing about sports for various outlets for over 40 years. His work has appeared in the likes of USA TODAY, ESPN.com, SI.com, Forbes.com, The Associated Press, Baseball Digest, and more. John is based out of Beaver Falls, PA.
