Phillies vs Diamondbacks Predictions, Odds & Player Props for Game 3

• With Philadelphia holding a 2-0 lead, the Phillies vs Diamondbacks NLCS shifts to Arizona for Game 3
• The Diamondbacks will be playing just their second home game of the postseason on Thursday
• See the Game 3 Phillies vs Diamondbacks odds, player props, and picks for Oct. 19

This afternoon in Arizona, the Diamondbacks (89-80, 43-38 home) look to avoid falling in a 3-0 deficit to the Philadelphia Phillies (96-73, 42-41 away) in the best-of-seven National League Championship Series. First pitch for Game 3 is scheduled for 5:07 pm ET/2:07 pm PT at Chase Field in Phoenix.

Despite home-field advantage on Thursday, the Diamondbacks head into Game 3 as plus-money underdogs for the third straight time in the series, and eighth straight in the playoffs as a whole (i.e. each one of their games).

Phillies vs Diamondbacks Odds

Thursday’s MLB odds list the DBacks as +112 home underdogs to carve into Philadelphia’s lead, which is actually the shortest pre-game odds in the postseason so far. Looking back through the MLB public betting splits reveals that Arizona has been listed at +114 or longer in each of its 2023 playoff games to date (two versus the Brewers in the Wild Card, three versus the Dodgers in the NLDS, and Games 1 and 2 of the NLCS versus the Phillies).

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Odds as of Oct. 19 at FanDuel. Lock in a FanDuel promo code to wager on Game 3 of the 2023 NLCS. 

The DBacks’ World Series odds have taken a serious hit the past two games. Already the longest shot on the board of the four remaining teams, Arizona faded from +466 to +1550 after falling in a 2-0 hole to the Phillies due to a 10-0 blowout in Game 2. Their Pennant odds went from +153 prior to Game 1 to +595 ahead of Game 3. The Phillies are now -875 on average to win their second straight NL Pennant.

PHI vs ARI Game 3 Starting Pitchers

Both teams turn to their number-three starters in Thursday’s MLB lineups, which is a more encouraging sight for the road team. The Phillies send 28-year-old lefty Ranger Suarez to the mound for his third start of the postseason, while the DBacks give rookie Brandon Pfaadt his second start. While Suarez was roughed up some in the regular season, the playoffs have been a different story so far.

Ranger Suarez vs Brandon Pfaadt

Suarez started Games 1 and 4 of the NLDS with the top-seeded Braves and, cumulatively, pitched 8.2 innings while allowing just one run on four hits and a walk while striking out six.

Pfaadt’s first career playoff start was a disaster, allowing three runs on seven hits and a walk in just 2.2 innings during Game 1 of the Wild Card at Milwaukee. His second start, however, was spectacular in comparison. In Arizona’s series-clinching win over the Dodgers, the rookie went 4.1 scoreless innings while allowing just two hits and striking out two.

Pfaadt has never faced a single hitter in Philadelphia’s lineup. Suarez has a less-than-stellar history against the Arizona hitters, who are slashing .270/.365/.432 off the righty in 74 total at-bats with seven doubles, a triple, and a home run courtesy Evan Longoria. He made two starts against Arizona in the regular season and they were starkly different. In the first, back in May, Suarez gave up five runs on five hits and a walk over 5.0 innings at home. In the second, just three weeks later, he went 7.0 scoreless innings, scattering four hits and two walks while striking out seven on the road.

Phillies vs DBacks Player Props for Game 3

Thursday’s MLB player props portend a short outing from Pfaadt, whose outs-recorded is listed at just 11.5 compared to Suarez at 14.5. Despite the discrepancy in their outs-recorded numbers, Pfaadt is actually listed with the higher strikeout prop at DraftKings, sitting at 3.5 compared to Suarez at 2.5, though Suarez is a bigger favorite to go over (-195) than Pfaadt (-165). Pfaadt actually had more strikeouts in his short, unproductive outing against the Brewers (four) than his scoreless start against the Dodgers (two). Going back to the regular season, he recorded at least four strikeouts in 11 straight starts to end the year.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks Predictions for Game 3

After striking out 23 times through the first two games, the DBacks now get to face a starter with just a 20% strikeout percentage. But Suarez went over that number in both of his regular-season starts against this team, including racking up seven Ks in his only road start against the DBacks. He also went over 3.5 in his first start against the Braves in the NLDS and, including 2022, has shown a penchant for upping his game in October. Last postseason, he  had a 7.98 K/9 rate in the playoffs compared to a 7.47 mark in the regular season.

As mentioned, Pfaadt finished the regular season by recording at least four strikeouts in 11 straight starts. During the regular season, Philadelphia was a bottom-ten team in terms of strikeouts per game, averaging 9.12 Ks per game (only seven teams struck out more) and no one in their lineup has ever had the luxury of facing Pfaadt before. Expect their rhythm to be off early and Arizona to ultimately pull one back.

Phillies vs DBacks Game 3 Picks:

• Diamondbacks moneyline (+110 at FanDuel)
• Pfaadt over 3.5 Ks (-164 at FanDuel)
• Suarez over 3.5 Ks (+128 at FanDuel)