- The Phillies have won four straight, and will be aiming for a three-game sweep of the Mets on Sunday
- New York has now dropped five in a row, and is in danger of seeing its postseason hopes slip away
- Read on for a preview, full odds and a best bet for this pivotal Sunday evening NL East contest
The Philadelphia Phillies (76-72, 34-40 away) visit the New York Mets (72-77, 43-33 home) for a 7:08 p.m. ET start on Sunday, September 18th, to wrap up their three-game series.
The Phillies have taken the first two in the series at Citi Field, and have now beaten the Mets in six straight contests. This weekend’s victories have pushed their overall win streak to four in a row, and it has allowed Philadelphia to stay in touch with the NL East-leading Atlanta Braves, just one game ahead of the Phils. Meanwhile New York’s five-game losing streak is placing its playoff hopes in jeopardy, with the team now 2.5 games back of the Braves and seven games out in the race for a wild card.
Phillies vs Mets Odds
|Philadelphia Phillies||+105||+1.5 (-190)||Over 8.5 (-105)|
|New York Mets||-125||-1.5 (+160)||Under 8.5 (-115)|
Odds as of September 19th at DraftKings
The Phillies will be turning to Kyle Gibson to keep their postseason push humming on Sunday. The right-hander may still be getting used to the National League, after arriving in a midseason trade from the Texas Rangers having spent his entire career to that point in the AL. But he is having a pretty decent year statistically so far, going 10-7 with a 3.49 ERA.
Kyle Gibson's last three starts:
5.1 IP, 8 H, 8 ER
4.2 IP, 7 H, 3 ER
5.0 IP, 5 H, 4 ER
That regression thing that everyone feared …. well,
— Nathan Ackerman (@NathanAckerman_) September 15, 2021
Most importantly for Phillies fans, he’s already shown some mastery over the Mets. In just his second start for Philadelphia, Gibson pitched six strong innings, giving up just four hits and one earned run in an 8-3 victory last month.
Gibson vs Hill Stats
However, that game back on Aug. 6 was Gibson’s first career win over the Mets, with the pitcher having gone winless in his other three starts against them, giving up a total of 10 earned runs across 13.1 innings.
Batting Average vs Starting Pitchers
|Mets Batters||Batting Average vs Kyle Gibson|
|Phillies Batters||Batting Average vs Rich Hill|
Despite coming over in a trade from the Tampa Bay Rays back in mid-July, Rich Hill is still awaiting his first win in a Mets uniform. The veteran left-hander, who made his MLB debut back in 2005, is 0-3 in nine starts since the trade, and is 6-7 on the season with a 3.88 ERA.
Rich Hill drops one in at 71 mph for his first K of the evening pic.twitter.com/IGbM1Eb6K8
— SNY (@SNYtv) September 13, 2021
However, while the end results might not be great, Hill has pitched well recently, allowing three runs or fewer in his last seven starts. He also has a track record of success against the Phillies, having dominated in his last start against them, throwing seven shutout innings as a member of the Dodgers back in 2019.
— SportsNet LA (@SportsNetLA) June 2, 2019
Overall in his career, Hill is 2-2 with a 3.48 ERA in five starts and eight appearances against them, giving up 12 earned runs across 31 innings.
Phils On Top
The heated rivalry between these two teams has been very much slanted in the direction of Philadelphia of late, with the Phillies taking the past six head-to-head matches and clinching the season series for a third straight year as a result. However, the Mets did win eight of the first 12 contests this season, before the games started to get away from them.
Phillies vs Mets Prediction
Momentum is clearly on Philadelphia’s side heading into this contest, but the margins between these two rivals are slim at best, with 13 of their 18 contests ending up as one- or two-run games. The Mets are 5-4 at home against the Phils this year, versus 3-6 in Philadelphia, and have a modest 3.51 average ERA in home games too.
It’s about time Rich Hill broke through for his first win as a Met, and Sunday night looks like the ideal time.
Pick: Mets -1.5 (+160)