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Projected Saves for Closers in 2019 MLB Season; Bet the Under on Chapman

Aroldis Chapman
While Edwin Diaz is all the buzz for the Mets, Aroldis Chapman is hoping to bounce back as a closer for the Yankees. Photo by Keith Allison (flickr) CC License.
  • Edwin Diaz led MLB with 57 saves last year
  • He was traded to the New York Mets this offseason
  • Diaz has the highest line available which is set at 39.5 saves

Spring baseball has started and the regular season is right around the corner.  Before you know it, closers will be locking down saves and/or giving up walk-off bombs that’ll be played over and over on all the highlight shows.

To help you enjoy the excitement, sportsbooks have released save props on 12 of the biggest closers in Major League Baseball.

2019 MLB Save Props

Pitcher Projected Saves Odds
Edwin Diaz 39.5 Over(-110)/Under(-120)
Kenley Jansen 37.5 Over(-115)/Under(-115)
Roberto Osuna 36.5 Over(+100)/Under(-130)
Brad Hand 35.5 Over(-115)/Under(-115)
Aroldis Chapman 33.5 Over(-125)/Under(-105)
Wade Davis 33.5 Over(+100)/Under(-130)
Felipe Vazquez 33.5 Over(-105)/Under(-125)
Blake Treinen 32.5 Over(-130)/Under(+100)
Raisel Iglesias 31.5 Over(-115)/Under(-115)
Cody Allen 30.5 Over(-115)/Under(-115)
Ken Giles 29.5 Over(-115)/Under(-115)
Kirby Yates 27.5 Over(-115)/Under(-115)

*Odds taken 3/3

There’s a lot to digest in these numbers, so to help here are my four favorite bets on the board.

Diaz Still The Best In Baseball

Who knew being traded from one middling organization to another would be such cause for skepticism.

Last year, Diaz had a league-leading 57 saves for the Seattle Mariners. After an offseason trade to the New York Mets, the line sits at 39.5. That’s an awfully big cushion for the dominant 24-year-old.

He had 124 strikeouts in 73.1 innings last year while posting a 1.96 ERA. He was elite, he still is elite, and the over is definitely the play here.

PICK: Diaz over 39.5 saves (-110)

Will Osuna Prove He Is Elite?

Roberto Osuna is preparing for his first full season as the Astros closer. Traded to Houston after off-field issues, he settled in with 12 saves in 23 appearances.

This year he’s the undisputed closer on a team expected to win games in bunches.

In 2016 and 2017 Osuna had 36 and 39 saves, which puts him right in the ball park of this year’s line set at 36.5. With Houston being a more talented lineup than he ever had in Toronto, expect him to eclipse the total with relative ease, should he stay healthy and avoid any other trouble away from the ball park.

PICK: Osuna over 36.5 saves (+100)

Chapman Facing Competition In The Bronx?

Aroldis Chapman is clearly the closer in New York and nobody is suggesting his job is in jeopardy.

However, with Dellin Betances, Zack Britton, and Adam Ottovino all available out of the bullpen, it isn’t impossible to see Chapman getting used in different situations or even getting rest at points during the year.

You might also be surprised to know Chapman only had 32 saves last year and 22 the year prior. The Yankees will be good, but Chapman won’t be good enough to reach 34 saves.

PICK: Chapman under 33.5 saves (-105)

Giles Will Be Miles From The Over

The Toronto Blue Jays will turn to Ken Giles in the 9th inning the odd time they have a lead this year.

That is, of course, until they trade him at the deadline for whatever they can get. He signed a 1-year deal that management surely offered with the intent of putting him on the block when the time is right.

With the Blue Jays, he won’t close many games because they are terrible, and once he’s moved, he may not be a closer at all. This one is easily the best bet on the board; hammer the under.

PICK: Giles under 29.5 saves (-115)

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