Rays vs Red Sox Odds, Picks, and Lines (Sep 6)
By Chris Amberley in MLB Baseball
Published:
- The Boston Red Sox are -180 favorites over the Tampa Bay Rays on Monday (September 6th, 1:10 pm ET)
- Boston will give the ball to Chris Sale (3-0, 2.53 ERA), while Tampa Bay will counter with Ryan Yarbrough (8-4, 4.50 ERA)
- Read below for odds, analysis and a betting prediction
AL East rivals will collide Monday afternoon (September 6th), as the Red Sox host the Rays. Boston enters play with a three-game lead on Seattle for the AL’s final Wild Card berth, while Tampa Bay is sitting comfortably atop the division.
The Rays have a 7.5 game lead on the New York Yankees, and are 8 games ahead of the Red Sox. Despite the disparity in the standings, it’s Boston who’s been pegged as Monday’s favorite.
Rays vs Red Sox Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Runline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Rays | +155 | +1.5 (-130) | O 8.5 (-120) |
| Boston Red Sox | -180 | -1.5 (+110) | U 8.5 (+100) |
Odds as of Sept. 5th at DraftKings.
The Red Sox are currently priced at -180 on the moneyline, in a game that features a total of 8.5. Boston has won four of its past five outings, but has placed 11 different players on the COVID list over the past week. Those players include Xander Bogaerts and Enrique Hernandez, two of the team’s top-seven hitters.
The Rays on the other hand, won nine straight to close out August, but have since dropped three of their past five contests.
First pitch is scheduled for 1:10 pm ET at Fenway Park, with a 60% chance of rain and 83 degree temperatures in the forecast.
Probable Pitchers
The Red Sox will give the ball to Chris Sale, who’ll be making his fifth start since returning from Tommy John surgery. The 32-year-old has been solid in each of his first four outings, allowing just six runs in 21.1 innings, while striking out 24.
Some Chris Sale highlights to start off your morning right. #RedSox x @NationalPro pic.twitter.com/TBBa9dj6Bd
— Red Sox (@RedSox) September 2, 2021
Last time out, he faced this same Rays squad, and limited the AL’s top team to two runs over six innings in a 3-2 victory. His velocity is down a hair from his peak seasons, but he’s still generating a swinging strike rate of 14.6%, while limiting enemy hitters to hard contact on only 22.2% of their at-bats.
Yarbrough vs Sale
| 8-4 | Record | 3-0 |
| 4.50 | ERA | 2.53 |
| 1.17 | WHIP | 1.13 |
| .257 | OBA | .244 |
| 4.5 | SO/W Ratio | 4.8 |
If there’s one area of concern it’s his 1.69 HR/9 rate. That would be by far the highest of his career, but there’s a chance he’s just been a victim of a small sample size.
Tampa Bay does feature MLB’s highest scoring lineup, but has a poor track record against Sale. The lefty is 10-6 all-time versus the Rays, with a 2.95 ERA over 19 starts.
One story to pay attention to is Wander Franco’s on-base streak. The rookie has reached safely in 35 straight games, the third longest streak by a player under 21 and one short of the AL-record held by Mickey Mantle.
Ryan Yarbrough meanwhile, will toe the rubber for Tampa Bay. The southpaw has allowed two runs or less in three straight outings, but has been absolutely rocked by Boston this season.
Batting Average vs Starting Pitchers
| Rays Batters | Batting Average vs Sale | Red Sox Batters | Batting Average vs Yarbrough |
|---|---|---|---|
| Randy Arozarena | .000 | Rafael Devers | .238 |
| Nelson Cruz | .344 | J.D. Martinez | .542 |
| Yandy Diaz | .444 | Hunter Renfroe | .200 |
| Wander Franco | .333 | Christian Vazquez | .400 |
| Kevin Kiermaier | .300 | Alex Verdugo | .333 |
| Manuel Margo | .667 | Bobby Dalbec | .250 |
| Joey Wendle | .000 | Jonathan Arauz | .125 |
| Austin Meadows | .000 | Kyle Schwarber | .333 |
The Red Sox are batting .303 against him over four appearances, lighting him up for 21 runs, including five homers, over 18 innings.
Ryan Yarbrough has a 12.00 ERA in 3 games against the Red Sox this season, and they have a 1.031 OPS against him.
Please end this awful month on a high (scoring) note.
— Gabrielle Starr (@gfstarr1) August 31, 2021
J.D. Martinez has been a nightmare for Yarbrough to deal with, as he’s pounded 13 hits in 24 at-bats, including two home runs.
Rays vs Red Sox Pick
Even with Yarbrough’s struggles, the Rays are still a screaming value at +155 on the moneyline, and -130 on the runline. In spite of Yarbrough, Tampa Bay has won each of his past two starts against Boston, and 10 of the last 13 matchups this season between the two clubs.
San Francisco is the only team with more victories than Tampa Bay, and while Sale has looked good since surgery, he’s by no means unhittable.
If I were a Red Sox fan, I’d be pissed that the team decimated by the players reckless COVID behavior (9 key players are out) during a playoff run…Oh wait, I AM a Red Sox fan.
— Pete Souza (@PeteSouza) September 5, 2021
Also working in favor of the Rays in this matchup, is the COVID problem currently plaguing the Red Sox. In addition to Boegaerts and Hernandez, relievers Matt Barnes and Hirokazu Sawamura, two of Boston’s top-four most used bullpen arms, are also unavailable.
Pick: Tampa Bay Rays +1.5 (-130)
Sports Writer
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
