Upcoming Match-ups

Red Sox vs Tigers Odds, Picks, and Probable Pitchers (August 5)

Quinn Allen

by Quinn Allen in MLB Baseball

Aug 4, 2021 · 9:37 PM PDT

Boston Red Sox third baseman Rafael Devers hig-fiving teammate Bobby Dalbec
Boston Red Sox third baseman Rafael Devers, left, and first baseman Bobby Dalbec celebrate after the team defeated the Tampa Bay Rays during a baseball game Thursday, Sept. 10, 2020, in St. Petersburg, Fla. (AP Photo/Chris O'Meara)
  • The Red Sox and Tigers wrap up a three-game set on Thursday at Comerica Park
  • It’s two lefties on the mound with veteran Martin Perez for Boston and Tarik Skubal for Detroit
  • Get the odds, preview, and pick, below

The Boston Red Sox (64-45, 31-23 away) visit the Detroit Tigers (52-58, 31-25 home) for a series finale on Thursday afternoon at Comerica Park. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10 pm ET.

Boston sends lefty Martin Perez to the hill, while Detroit counters with Tarik Skubal. The Sox and Tigers have won a game apiece in this three-game set so far.

Red Sox vs Tigers Odds

Team Moneyline Runline Total
Boston Red Sox -135 -1.5 (+115) Ov 10 (+100)
Detroit Tigers +115 +1.5 (-135) Un 10 (-120)

Odds as of August 3rd at DraftKings.

Probable Pitchers

Perez gets the ball on Thursday and is currently in the midst of a very average campaign for a Red Sox staff that is 14th in the big leagues in team ERA. The veteran southpaw has gone 7-7 in 2021 with a 4.56 ERA and will be looking to bounce back from numerous rough outings since the All-Star Break.

The 30-year-old has given up 15 runs across his last four starts and was absolutely lit up by AL East rivals Tampa Bay on July 30th, giving up six earned runs and three homers in four innings. In fact, since the festivities in Denver, Perez has a dismal 7.71 ERA. He has faced Detroit once this season already though and put together a respectable showing, tossing five innings of two-run baseball. He also pitched a lot better in day games, posting a 3.63 ERA.

Perez vs Skubal

Martin Perez
Tarik Skubal

7-7 Record 6-10
4.56 ERA 4.53
98.2 Innings Pitched 105.1
83 SO 117
32 BB 39

Skubal has been one of Detroit’s most reliable starters this season behind ace Casey Mize. While his numbers don’t necessarily jump off the page with a 6-10 record and 4.53 ERA, the 24-year-old’s 117 strikeouts in 105.1 innings of work are a clear positive.

However, the long ball has been a huge problem for Skubal lately. He’s given up three homers in each of his last two starts to Baltimore and Kansas City. The lefty lost both of those outings as well, failing to get past the fifth inning. Pitching at home has been kind to Skubal though, where he boasts a 3.74 ERA in 13 appearances.

This will be the first time in his career he takes the bump against the Red Sox, though, which means their lineup is extremely unfamiliar with him.

Batting Average vs Starting Pitchers

Tigers Hitters Batting Average vs Perez
Miguel Cabrera .286
Harold Castro .333
Jeimer Candelario .400
Willie Castro .143
Grayson Greiner .500
Robbie Grossman .273
Victor Reyes .500
Jonathan Schoop .333

*Note: The only hitters on Boston to face Skubal are Marwin Gonzalez and Franchy Cordero, who are a combined 0 for 5.

Red Sox Sliding

Boston has been struggling post-All-Star Break, going just 9-9 and giving up the division lead in the American League East to the Rays. Their team average has sunk from .256 to .242 and they even got swept by Tampa in a crucial three-game series in late July.

Xander Bogaerts, one of their best hitters, is slumping extremely hard right now. The shortstop was batting .321 before the break but is barely hitting over .200  in his last 14 games. Rafael Devers continues to be consistent though, posting a .284 average while slugging a team-best 27 home runs.

The Tigers may not be in the playoff race, but their 52-58 record is a clear improvement from a 23-35 finish in 2020. Detroit is around the middle of the pack in most offensive categories and has gone 12-8 since the All-Star Break.

Jonathan Schoop and Jeimer Candelario have been their most consistent bats, hitting .283 and .274, respectively. The Tigers also play a lot better at Comerica, posting a sub-500 record when on home soil.

Red Sox vs Tigers Prediction

On paper, you’d think that Boston should comfortably win Thursday’s contest. But, Perez has been dreadful lately and even the bottom teams in the American League have been teeing off against him.

Skubal on the other hand, as mentioned above, thrives on his home mound. But, the Red Sox do hit .260 off left-handers and even though they’ve never faced him, I expect them to string together some hits. With both arms giving up their fair share of runs lately though, the over in runs should also offer some value to bettors.

Pick: Boston Red Sox moneyline (-135); Over 10 Runs (+100)

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