Red Sox vs Blue Jays Odds & Picks (Oct. 1)

• The Blue Jays are -145 home favorites over the Red Sox on Saturday
• Brayan Bello (2-7, 4.39) will start for the Red Sox against the Blue Jays’ Ross Stripling (9-4, 3.16)
• A look at the Red Sox vs Blue Jays matchup and odds can be found below

The Toronto Blue Jays will try to strengthen their grip on the first American League wild card and home-field advantage in the first round of the postseason when they host the Boston Red Sox at 3:07pm ET Saturday in the middle game of a three-game series at Rogers Centre.

The Blue Jays (88-69, 45-34 home) won for the fourth time in their last six games on Friday night, 9-0. The Red Sox (75-82, 35-43 road) had their three-game winning streak snapped.

The Blue Jays opened a 2.5-game lead over the Seattle Mariners for the first wild card with five game remaining.

Red Sox vs Blue Jays Odds

Odds as of September 30th at Caesars.

The Blue Jays are -145 favorites and have a 59.18% implied win probability. Toronto has +1400 World Series odds.

The Rogers Centre roof will likely be open as the weather forecast calls for sunny and a high of 59.

Red Sox vs Blue Jays Probable Pitchers

Rookie Brayan Bello (2-7, 4.39) is scheduled to pitch for the Red Sox against Ross Stripling (9-4, 3.16).

Both will be working on five days of rest.

Bello vs Stripling Stats

Bello has a fine 2.11 ERA in his last four starts but a 1-3 record.

Bello had a strong performance against the Yankees last Sunday in New York despite taking the loss. He allowed two runs (one earned) on six hits in six innings with four strikeouts and two walks.

Brayan Bello’s last 7 starts:

36.1 IP
2.48 ERA/2.65 FIP
8.9 K/9
3.5 BB/9
.336 BABIP
1 HR Allowed

He’s already one of the best pitchers on the staff at 23. After just 58.2 IP at AAA. pic.twitter.com/hXIFlfc4xp

— Tyler Milliken ⚾️ (@tylermilliken_) September 26, 2022

This will be Bello’s third start against the Blue Jays but first in Toronto. He is 0-1 with a 7.00 ERA.

Bello has a 1-3 record on the road this season and a 4.68 ERA in six games (five starts). He is 1-1 with a 4.22 ERA in three games (two starts) during the day. The Red Sox are just 2-8 in Bello’s starts.

Stripling has come up big for the Blue Jays in the pennant race, going 5-1 with a 2.95 ERA in his last 11 starts. He allowed one run and six hits in five innings in beating the Tampa Bay Rays last Sunday in St. Petersburg while striking out three and walking none.

Ross Stripling. Not thinking about stocks. #BlueJays pic.twitter.com/5Mx66FHPMM

— Dustin Saracini (@DustinSaracini) October 1, 2022

Stripling has a 3-3 career mark and 5.32 ERA against the Red Sox in 10 career starts.

At Rogers Center in 2022, Stripling is 3-3 with a 2.70 ERA in 16 games (11 starts). He has gone 4-3 with a 3.60 ERA in 12 games (10 starts) during the day. The Blue Jays have won 16 of Stripling’s 23 starts.

Batting Average vs Starting Pitchers

The Red Sox’ Kike Hernandez is a .417 hitter (5-for-12) off Stripling with two doubles and a home run while Xander Bogaerts is 6-for-15 (.400) with a double and one homer.

On the other end of the spectrum, Tommy Pham is 0-for-10.

While it’s a small sample size, the Blue Jays’ George Springer has gone 4-for-6 versus Bello.

Red Sox vs Blue Jays Betting Outlook

Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Raimel Tapia and Springer homered Friday night to lead the Blue Jays to an easy victory over the Red Sox. Springer’s was a three-run blast and Guerrero’s came with one runner on base.

The Blue Jays’ Whit Merrifield had three hits and Springer, Tapia and Bo Bichette added two each. Bichette finished September with 48 hits, breaking the Blue Jays’ record in a calendar month of 47 by Tony Fernandez in June 1986.

Spring's ready for the fall 👀 #SpringerDinger pic.twitter.com/HQbjJPg5eV

— Toronto Blue Jays (@BlueJays) October 1, 2022

The Red Sox had three singles in getting shut out.

The Blue Jays have won 14 of 17 games against the Red Sox this season, including going 6-2 in Toronto. That is quite a reversal from the previous five seasons when the Red Sox dominated the series 54-31 from 2017-21.

Red Sox vs Blue Jays Last 10 Games

Red Sox vs Blue Jays Prediction

Bello has pitched better than his won-loss record indicates and seems to be getting better every time out. The rookie is a good value play in this spot despite the Blue Jays’ domination of the Red Sox this year.

Pick: Red Sox ML (+122)