Tigers vs Reds Odds, Picks, and Probable Pitchers (Sep. 5)
- The Cincinnati Reds are -220 home favorites over the Detroit Tigers in their MLB inter-league afternoon game on Sunday, September 5
- Detroit has won three of the last four games at Cincinnati
- The Reds are 4-7 over their past 11 games
The Detroit Tigers (64-73, 29-38 away) may be out of the MLB playoff race but manager AJ Hinch insists that his team is playing to win in the September stretch drive. The Cincinnati Reds (73-64, 38-32 home) can attest to that fact.
The Tigers spanked the Reds 15-5 in the opener of this three-game weekend set on Friday. The Reds rebounded to win 7-4 on Sunday.
The rubber match goes Sunday afternoon and it’s the Reds who’ve been established as the -220 favorites. The Tigers are 27-37 as a road underdog this season.
Reds vs Tigers Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Runline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Tigers | +180 | +1.5 (-110) | O 8.5 (-120) |
| Cincinnati Reds | -220 | -1.5 (-110) | U 8.5 (+100) |
Odds as of August 30th at DraftKings.
First pitch at Great American Ballpark is scheduled for 1:10pm ET. Rain is in the forecast, along with an 8 mph wind and a temperature of 78 degrees.
Mize vs Castillo
| 7-7 | Record | 7-14 |
| 5.09 | ERA | 4.30 |
| 4.60 | xERA | 3.41 |
| 1.15 | WHIP | 3.70 |
| 2.67 | SO/W Ratio | 2.48 |
Right-hander Mize is 2-3 in 10 starts since the end of June. He’s allowed three or more earned runs in four of his past seven starts. Mize leads the American League with 11 hit batters. He hasn’t thrown six innings in a start since July 29.
Casey Mize, 93mph Two Seamer and 86mph Slider, Overlay. pic.twitter.com/2976PlDusf
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) August 30, 2021
Mize has given up seven home runs over his past five starts. He’s never faced the Reds during his brief two-season career. Mize is 1-1 with a 4.63 ERA in two career starts against National League teams. He’s 4-4 with a 4.16 ERA in 17 career road starts.
Right-hander Castillo has gained a decision in each of his last eight starts. He’s 4-4. Castillo is 4-1 through his last five home starts.
Overall, he’s 1-4 with a 5.22 ERA in his past five starts. His 14 defeats give Castillo a share of the NL lead in losses along with Patrick Corbin of the Washington Nationals.
In four starts against AL opposition this season, Castillo is 1-2, all of them against AL Central Division ball clubs. The Reds are 1-3 in those four games. Over his last six starts against AL Central opponents, Castillo is 1-5.
Luis Castillo with the behind the back snag! pic.twitter.com/6gYYjzauKM
— ATBBTTR (@ATBBTTR) August 26, 2021
Castillo is 0-1 with a 4.50 ERA in two career starts against Detroit. The Tigers are batting .292 against him as a team. But he’s recorded 17 strikeouts against two walks for an impressive strikeout to walk ratio of 8.50.
Castillo is among the top 10% in the NL in barrel percentage at 4.9. He’s just 15-25 with a 4.09 ERA in day games over his career.
Batting Average vs Starting Pitchers
| Tigers Batters | Batting Average vs Castillo | Reds Batters | Batting Average vs Mize |
|---|---|---|---|
| Akil Baddoo | .000 | Shogo Akiyama | .000 |
| Miguel Cabrera | .000 | Aristides Aquino | .000 |
| Jeimer Candelario | .000 | Tucker Barnhart | .000 |
| Harold Castro | .000 | Asdrubal Cabrera | .000 |
| Willi Castro | .000 | Nick Castellanos | .000 |
| Dustin Garneau | .000 | Delino DeShields | .000 |
| Niko Goodrum | .200 | Kyle Farmer | .000 |
| Robbie Grossman | 1.000 | Jonathan India | .000 |
| Eric Haase | .000 | Alejo Lopez | .000 |
| Derek Hill | .000 | Mike Moustakas | .000 |
| Victor Reyes | .333 | Tyler Naquin | .500 |
| Jonathan Schoop | .667 | Max Schrock | .000 |
| — | — | Tyler Stephenson | .000 |
| — | — | Eugenio Suarez | .000 |
| — | — | Joey Votto | .000 |
Reds centerfielder Tyler Naquin is the only Cincinnati batter who has previously faced Mize. He’s 1-for-2 (.500) against the Tigers right-hander.
Jonathan Schoop restores the two-run lead with his 19th home run of the season! #DetroitRoots pic.twitter.com/U1WjwryVKI
— Bally Sports Detroit (@BallySportsDET) September 4, 2021
Detroit first baseman Jonathan Schoop is 4-for-6 (.667) when facing Castillo. Rightfielder Victor Reyes is 1-for-3 (.333). Leftfielder Robbie Grossman, who leads the Tigers with 21 home runs, stroked a hit in his only plate appearance against Castillo and is batting 1.000.
Tigers vs Reds Pick
Cincinnati has won three of its last four games against Detroit. But the Reds are just 1-3 in their past four home games against the Tigers. Fighting for an NL WIld Card position, Cincinnati is a stumbling 4-7 through the past 11 games and 2-5 through the past seven games.
Detroit has scored 36 runs through the past five games and allowed 34 runs, so it might not be a bad idea to give the over on this game of 8.5 runs plenty of consideration. Over the past four games, Cincinnati has scored 28 runs and allowed 26.
The Tigers are 5-2 in their last seven interleague games and 5-2 in their last seven games against NL Central opponents.
Pick: Detroit Tigers (+180).
An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.
