Yankees and Astros Square Off in Clash of AL Titans

Two of Major League Baseball’s best square off on Wednesday, May 2nd as New York Yankees ace Luis Severino puts his 4-1 record on the line against Dallas Keuchel and the AL West-leading Houston Astros.

Grounded

New York has been red hot over their last ten, going 9-1 heading into Wednesday night’s match-up. Since a 9-1 loss to the Mariners on April 17th, the Bronx Bombers have clobbered opposing pitching. The bats have averaged 6.25 runs per game over that stretch, and their pitching has allowed more than four runs just once. That was an 8-5 loss to the Toronto Blue Jays on April 20.

New York’s bats have averaged 6.25 runs per game over their last ten games, and their pitching has allowed more than four runs just once.

The World Series champs are sitting in a familiar spot: on top of the AL West. Houston had won three of their last four coming into their series with the Yanks, and had won six in a row before dropping back-to-back games against the Angels. The only other blip on the radar? An 8-1 loss against a .500 Oakland team.

Team Stats

On the Bump

Keuchel has been his typical work-horse self, but he’s been off to a rocky start. The 2015 Cy Young winner threw at least 99 pitches in each of his first three trips to the mound, but made it to the sixth inning just once. That was followed by a dominant eight innings against Seattle (8.0 innings pitched, two earned runs, 6/1 K/BB) and a solid six innings against the White Sox.

He has been a bit of a hard-luck loser though. In his lone win of the season, the Astros blasted the White Sox 10-1. In his five other starts, Houston has scored just five runs while he’s been in the game.

Five days ago we featured Severino, and he did just fine, going seven innings with eight strikeouts in a no-decision against Anaheim. Severino has mostly been dominant this season. April 27th was the first time he didn’t factor into the decision, and he’s hovering around the top 20 and top 10 in ERA (22nd), opponent’s average (9th), WHIP (13th) and H/9 (9th).

Grounded

With two aces on either side, the difference may come down to the long ball and how they avoid it. They Yankees are tops in home runs and second in extra-base hits, while Houston is sits 11th and 10th respectively. New York has been susceptible to ground-outs, and that’s Keuchel’s specialty. The Yankees are ninth in baseball with a 1.09 GO/AO rate, while Keuchel has the second best ratio among starters at 2.12.

Keuchel struggled with the long ball in his last time out, but don’t expect that to carry over from start-to-start. It’s just the fourth time he’s allowed a multi-home run game since July of 2016. It’s tough to keep the Yanks’ lineup down with all of their mashers, but it’s a big ask if you’re looking for them to dominate in Houston.

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Score Prediction

Keuchel will be looking to avenge his last, messy start, and continue his home dominance. Last year he gave up four homers at home, and had a tight 2.26 ERA. Severino meanwhile, is just hoping to stay on his upward trajectory. He’ll also be looking for some revenge against an Astros team that knocked him out early in two playoff starts last year. Both sides will score, but don’t expect either to run away with it.