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Are Yankees World Series Bound After Zach Britton Trade?

Ryan Murphy

by Ryan Murphy in MLB Baseball

Updated Jul 25, 2018 · 12:29 PM PDT

Baltimore Orioles closer Zach Britton
Orioles closer Zach Britton is headed to the Yankees. Photo by Keith Allison (Flickr) [CC License]
  • The Yankees have bolstered baseball’s best bullpen with the acquisition of Zach Britton
  • Is there value to be found in New York’s longer-than-expected odds?
  • Can Britton help the Yankees overtake the Red Sox in the AL East?

Tuesday was quite a night for the Yankees. In addition to blanking the Rays 4-0, New York also bolstered its already dominant bullpen with the acquisition of Orioles closer Zach Britton. The 30-year-old southpaw is 1-0 with four saves and a 3.45 ERA since returning from offseason surgery to repair his right Achilles.

You would think adding a two-time All-Star with 139 career saves would improve a team’s odds, but New York’s average odds to win the 2018 World Series have actually lengthened from +470 on July 18th to +520 on July 25th across a number of top online betting sites. It’s a curious development, and one that savvy bettors should consider taking advantage of before the market corrects itself.

It’s no secret that the Yankees have their sights set on a World Series title, and Britton will absolutely help them in their quest. The veteran left-hander is a crafty pitcher with a devastating sinker and an outstanding ground ball rate. Manager Aaron Boone will be able to use him interchangeably with fellow All-Stars Aroldis Chapman, David Robertson, and Dellin Betances to prevent opposing teams from rallying late in the game.

Acquiring Britton was a particularly big coup for New York as it prevents him from going to Boston or Houston, where he would have helped the Yankees’ two biggest rivals. The Red Sox and Astros will now have to look elsewhere to find a suitable arm for the pens.

Another reason to like the Yankees – and their longer than expected odds – is the fact that the club isn’t done dealing yet. New York is interested in fortifying its starting rotation and is eyeing a wide range of available pitchers including Angels left-handers Tyler Skaggs and Andrew Heaney, Blue Jays All-Star JA Happ, Rangers veteran Cole Hamels, and Tigers righty Michael Fulmer.

Starting pitching has been one of New York’s few weaknesses since May, when Jordan Montgomery went down with a season-ending elbow injury. The Yankees experimented with Domingo German, but the rookie hurler struggled with control issues and was recently demoted to the Minors.

New York Yankees Trade Targets

Player Team Record ERA WHIP
Tyler Skaggs Angels 7-6 2.68 1.22
Andrew Heaney Angels 6-6 3.66 1.15
JA Happ Blue Jays 10-6 4.18 1.17
Cole Hamels Rangers 5-9 4.72 1.37
Michael Fulmer Tigers 3-9 4.50 1.32

Should a deal fail to materialize, the Yankees have a solid fall back option in Justus Sheffield. The 22-year-old left-hander is 3-3 with a 2.44 ERA in Triple-A this season and has long been considered one of New York’s most untouchable prospects.

New York has until 4:00 p.m. EST on July 31st to pull the trigger on a potential trade.

The Yankees aren’t the only team whose odds have changed. Here are the biggest risers and fallers from July 18th to July 25th.

Biggest Risers

Team July 18th Avg Odds July 25th Avg Odds
Los Angeles Dodgers +730 +590
Boston Red Sox +520 +440

Bookmakers are bullish on Manny Machado, and it’s easy to see why. The four-time All-Star reached base four times in his Dodgers debut and has helped power LA to a 3-2 record since the break.

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Meanwhile over on the East Coast, the Red Sox have benefited from some phenomenal performances from the top of their rotation. David Price pitched six shutout innings in a 1-0 win over the Tigers on July 20th, and Chris Sale racked up nine strikeouts in a dominant 9-1 victory against Detroit two days later.

Boston currently ranks in the top three in the American League in ERA, strikeouts, and shutouts.

Boston currently ranks in the top three in the American League in ERA, strikeouts, and shutouts, and has a five-game lead over the Yankees in the AL East.

Biggest Fallers

Team July 18th Avg Odds July 25th Avg Odds
Minnesota Twins +26000 +42000
Toronto Blue Jays +90000 +140000

Minnesota started the second half of the season in ugly fashion with three consecutive losses to the lowly Royals. The Twins are batting just .244 with a dismal .315 onbase percentage and are receiving little to no production from Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton after breakout years in 2017.

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The Blue Jays’s season-long slide into oblivion is showing no signs of slowing down either. Toronto is listening to all offers for JA Happ and Josh Donaldson and could be one of the busiest teams in the league prior to the trade deadline. On the positive side, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is hitting the hide off the ball in the Minors and could be called up before the end of the season.

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