Picks for UFC 237: Aldo Continues Resurgence vs Volkanovski
- UFC 237 goes Saturday, May 11th, at 10 PM ET
- Can Aldo continue his rebuilding process at featherweight?
- Can the legendary Lil Nog notch another victory?
UFC 237 goes live from Jeunesse Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, next Saturday (May 11th). The top of the marquee is a strawweight title fight with Thug Rose defending her belt against the Brazilian berserker Jessica Andrade.
The card is stacked with multiple Brazilian legends and there are several intriguing prize fights. Below, find my UFC 237 deep-dive and analysis.
Jose Aldo vs Alexander Volkanovski Analysis
UFC 237 features a hugely important bout for the future of the 145 lb class. Featherweight GOAT Jose Aldo takes on surging young contender Alexander Volkanovski where the number one and number four contenders, respectively, go head to head. Per UFC’s rankings, the winner of this bout could have a strong case to contend for the featherweight title next.
Aldo vs Volkanovski Odds
| Fighter | Odds at Book 1 | Odds at Book 2 |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Aldo | -135 | -145 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | +105 | +125 |
*Odds taken on 05/10/2019
People are understandably high on Volkanovski as of late. Alexander’s lone career loss was in 2013; he’s riding a 16-fight win streak and is coming off of a stoppage over former title challenger Chad Mendes.
Aldo’s strength of schedule and renewed vigor position him as the favorite here though.
Jose Aldo is back! What a body shot #ThatsATummyAcheTomorrow pic.twitter.com/gwZjnLp3Mu
— Big Cat (@BarstoolBigCat) July 29, 2018
Aldo has gone through tough times in recent years with the infamous 13-second loss to Conor McGregor and two setbacks to Max Holloway.
But Scarface got back on track in recent fights with highlight-reel wins over Jeremy Stephens and Renato Moicano. I see Aldo handing Volkanovski his second career loss.
Pick: Jose Aldo (-135)
Antonio Rogerio Nogueira vs Ryan Spann Analysis
UFC 237 marks the return of a Brazilian legend as “Lil Nog” faces a light-heavyweight peer 15 years his junior.
Spann is a product of Dana White’s Contender Series the LFA circuit and is riding five straight wins. Ryan is now getting ready to face-off with the biggest name he has encountered in his MMA career so far.
Nogueira vs Spann Odds
| Fighter | Odds at Book 1 | Odds at Book 2 |
|---|---|---|
| Antonio Rogerio Nogueira | +115 | +115 |
| Ryan Spann | -145 | -135 |
Lil Nog has left an indelible mark in PRIDE as well as UFC and has competed for almost 18 years. Nogueira has significant wins over foes like Kazushi Sakuraba, Alistair Overeem, Dan Henderson, Tito Ortiz, and Rashad Evans. Lil Nog also won his last bout via a highlight reel KO over Sam Alvey.
Antonio Rogerio Nogueira bounces back with the TKO win! pic.twitter.com/5YKOh51i2Z
— FOX Sports: UFC (@UFCONFOX) September 23, 2018
Spann brings an 87-percent stoppage rate to this bout but Nogueira seems to level up when competing in front of a partisan crowd. I can see Lil Nog getting a W to the delight of his Brazilian countrymen.
Pick: Lil Nog (+115)
Clay Guida vs BJ Penn Analysis
UFC 237 pits two of the promotion’s more tenured roster members against each other in an unusual lightweight bout. Former UFC lightweight and welterweight champion BJ Penn takes on 155’s energizer bunny/caveman, Clay Guida.
Guida vs Penn Odds
| Fighter | Odds at Book 1 | Odds at Book 2 |
|---|---|---|
| Clay Guida | -700 | -650 |
| BJ Penn | +450 | +475 |
Though Guida is 5-5 in his last ten, he has maintained more consistency than Penn, who has a record of 1-8-1 in his last ten. Considering the respective career arcs of both fighters, many industry pundits are confused at this booking.
B.J Penn vs Clay Guida…WHY?https://t.co/1tMjif0QtL pic.twitter.com/1BOItTe2CJ
— Chael Sonnen (@ChaelSonnen) March 8, 2019
As much of a legend as BJ is, I struggle to pick him in really any fight these days. Clay is known for dropping Big Lebowski quotes on the regular, both in-cage and online. So hopefully the dude abides in Guida’s post-fight victory speech.
Pick: Clay Guida (-650)
A part-time writer and full-time broadcaster, Dylan has hosted MMA talk shows Lights Out and Pure Fight Radio with featured guests like Jens Pulver, Roy Nelson, Miesha Tate, and covered some of the biggest MMA promotions like Rumble in the Cage, Unified MMA, and King of the Cage.
