- Conor McGregor makes his return to the Octagon in the main event of UFC 257
- McGregor is a sizeable -315 favorite, so how can you find value on the Irishman?
- Aside from the betting line, here are a handful of props that hold value
For the second consecutive year, Conor McGregor headlines the UFC’s first pay-per-view card of the year as he battles lightweight contender Dustin Poirier.
We’ve already broken down the full UFC 257 main card and found some money lines to bet. However, there are several props I like to cash on Saturday night.
Total Round Odds
|Matchup||Total Rounds||Over Odds||Under Odds|
|Poirier vs McGregor||2.5||+135||-180|
|Hooker vs Chandler||2.5||-120||-112|
|Calderwood vs Eye||2.5||-360||+245|
|Azaitar vs Frevola||2.5||+120||-159|
|Ribas vs Rodriguez||2.5||-225||+161|
All odds taken Jan. 21 at DraftKings
Dan Hooker and Michael Chandler is a crucial fight in the lightweight division where the winner could very well fight Conor McGregor next time out. It is also a very intriguing bout, as Hooker has proven he has a very durable chin and solid power, while Chandler has legit one-punch knockout power.
Dan Hooker welcomes Michael Chandler to the UFC at #UFC257
— Overtime Heroics MMA (@OTHeroicsMMA) January 21, 2021
However, I like the over 2.5 rounds in the co-main event. In the preview breakdown, I took the underdog in Chandler, as I expect him to mix his wrestling and striking to win a decision. We saw Hooker take a ton of shots over five rounds against Dustin Poirier and Paul Felder, so I don’t expect Chandler to finish him. Nor, do I think Hooker will finish a very durable Michael Chandler.
Pick: Chandler-Hooker Over 2.5 (-120)
Fight Goes The Distance Odds
|Matchup||Yes Odds||No Odds|
|Poirier vs. McGregor||+275||-400|
|Hooker vs. Chandler||-106||-125|
|Calderwood vs. Eye||-335||+225|
|Azaitar vs. Frevola||+160||-220|
|Ribas vs. Rodriguez||-190||+140|
I think Amanda Ribas vs Amanda Rodriguez doesn’t go the distance is worth a stab as Rodriguez has a terrible ground game and that is where Ribas excels.
If the Brazilian can get Rodriguez down, which I expect her too, there is a very high chance she can get the tap. Ribas is a wizard on the ground and submitted Paige VanZant in the first round. This is a riskier play as Rodriguez has never been finished before, but she’s had problems against grapplers in Cynthia Calvillo, Randa Markos, and Carla Esparza.
Ultimately, I like Ribas to eventually get ahold of an arm or the neck and force the tap in the second or third round.
Pick: Ribas-Rodriguez Doesn’t Go The Distance (+140)
Method of Victory Odds
|Result||KO / TKO / DQ Odds||Submission Odds||Decision Odds|
|Poirier beats McGregor||+600||+900||+600|
|McGregor beats Poirier||-177||+2000||+650|
|Hooker beats Chandler||+210||+1200||+285|
|Chandler beats Hooker||+550||+700||+240|
|Calderwood beats Eye||+1200||+1300||+115|
|Eye beats Calderwood||+700||+800||+185|
|Azaitar beats Frevola||+130||+1300||+400|
|Frevola beats Azaitar||+500||+600||+350|
|Ribas beats Rodriguez||+515||+300||+110|
|Rodriguez beats Ribas||+1300||+1600||+350|
Conor McGregor will beat Dustin Poirier again and do so by KO/TKO for the second time.
This is a much different fight than the first time as Poirier is a much better fighter at lightweight, however, he still gets hit quite a bit, and eventually, in the first or second round, I expect McGregor to land something big and get the knockout. The -177 odds holds stronger value than betting on McGregor to simply win.
— Chamatkar Sandhu (@SandhuMMA) January 18, 2021
An extra play on this prop is Ottman Azaitar by KO/TKO at +130. Azaitar has 10 of his 13 wins by KO, including eight by the first-round. Frevola also has a questionable chin, so a plus-money play is a solid bet.
Pick: Conor McGregor by KO/TKO/DQ (-177)
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