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Woodley vs Diaz? Odds It Happens; Odds to Win

Don Aguero

by Don Aguero in Mixed Martial Arts News

Updated Jan 17, 2018 · 9:38 AM PST

UFC President Dana White at a press conference.
Dana White's Contender Series continues at the UFC Apex gym in Las Vegas. Photo by Andrius Petrucenia (Flickr)

The UFC is desperate to end 2017 on a high note. The last event of the year, UFC 219 (December 30th at T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas) is still missing a marquee fight, and Dana White doesn’t have too many options available.

Heavyweight champ Stipe Miocic is still negotiating his contract; Georges St-Pierre needs some time before defending his middleweight title; TJ Dillashaw also needs time before he drops down to flyweight to face Demetrious Johnson in the TJ-vs-DJ super-fight; and Jon Jones and Anderson Silva have both tested positive …  again!

If the UFC is going to close the year with a bang, it will need to get creative. To hell with the official rankings and sensible matchmaking! Rumor has it that the UFC 219 headliner will be a title fight between welterweight champ Tyron Woodley and lightweight contender Nate Diaz. Sounds crazy, but it might just happen.


Odds Woodley vs Diaz is Booked for UFC 219: 6/5 (+120)

The UFC is still weighing its options. Cris Cyborg was billed to face Holly Holm, but the two camps are struggling to come to an agreement. There’s still time, and the fight, which makes a lot more sense than Woodley vs Diaz, would be a huge moment in women’s MMA. But it won’t sell as well, so …

Nate Diaz is notoriously stubborn when it comes to the negotiation process. Woodley has purportedly already signed his end of the contract and is waiting on the younger Diaz brother to lend his signature. A trilogy fight against Conor McGregor is the fight he really wants, but if the money is right, he’ll step into the cage with anyone.

There’s still a long way to go before this fight gets made, but it’s close to even that we see them square off in December, because it would undoubtedly garner some PPV buys.

Fight Odds: Tyron Woodley (-260) vs Nate Diaz (+200)

At first glance, this is a ridiculous match-up. The welterweight division is stacked with fighters ready for a title shot against Tyron Woodley (18-3-1). Robbie Lawler, who lost his title to Woodley in 2016, is ready to reclaim the belt. Colby Covington is on a five-fight win streak and recently dominated Demian Maia. Rafael Dos Anjos has made a successful leap to welterweight after losing his lightweight title. And Darren Till is rapidly rising through the ranks.

So it seems strange that Nate Diaz (19-11), who hasn’t fought in 15 months and is coming off a loss to Conor McGregor, is being given a shot at the crown. He hasn’t been particularly successful at 170 pounds and, aside from his win against McGregor, his most significant victories have been at lightweight. But he’s a huge draw, and that’s why he’s getting the fight.

Woodley is one of the most boring fighters in the UFC, but he’s extremely effective. He claimed the title by KOing Robbie Lawler with the fastest knockout in UFC welterweight championship history, defended the title twice against top contender Stephen Thompson, and completely neutralized Demian Maia in his last fight.

Diaz hasn’t fought since his decision loss to Conor McGregor. He’s been holding out for the trilogy fight for some time, but it could be a while until Notorious sings on for Mcgregor vs Diaz 3. A shot at the welterweight title is seemingly too enticing to turn down. He’s a well-rounded fighter and his stamina is tremendous, but he’s been in the fight game for a long time and has endured quite a few beatings. While Diaz would have a height and reach advantage over Woodley, and the cardio to outlast the welterweight champ, he cannot match his power and will not be able to out-wrestle him. Woodley proved that he can overcome a reach advantage after twice defending his title against the rangey Stephen Thompson.

Much to the chagrin of many MMA fans, Woodley seems to have a firm grip on the welterweight title. He’ll never be a fan favorite or a pay-per-view king, but he’s undeniably the top welterweight at the moment. If the fight gets made, Diaz is in for a very tough night.

Pick: Tyron Woodley (-260)

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