NBA Finals Betting – (1) Warriors at (2) Cavaliers (Game 4)

Golden State Warriors (-2.5, 193.5) at Cleveland Cavaliers

Down two games to one after a 96-91 setback in Game 3, the Golden State Warriors (67-15, 28-13 Away) opened as one-point road dogs to the Cleveland Cavaliers (53-29, 31-10 Home) for Game 4 of the NBA Finals tonight (9:00 PM Eastern at Quicken Loans Arena). But bettors are backing the NBA’s top team from the regular season in a big way, and Steph Curry and company are now 2.5-point favorites to even the series.

While it’s becoming harder and harder to justify betting against LeBron James in these NBA Finals, this isn’t unfamiliar territory for the Warriors. This is the second time this postseason they’ve found themselves down 2-1. Golden State also trailed Memphis in the Western Conference semifinals before storming back with three straight wins.

If the Warriors are going to repeat that performance against an all-world James and his lunch-pail supporting cast, their shooting will have to improve monumentally; the Warriors are averaging just 97.8 points per game in the finals, over a dozen fewer than they averaged during the regular season (110.0).

Steph Curry ended Game 3 with 27 points – which looks impressive in the box score – but the NBA MVP came out of the gate ice cold and saw his team trail by as many as 20 points before pouring in 24 in the second half (including 17 in the fourth quarter) as part of a comeback that fell just short.

“We’ll figure out our game and the adjustments we need to make as we watch film later today, and we’ll be ready tomorrow to give our best effort,” Curry said to the Associated Press after the loss. “I feel like we’re pretty confident we can turn this around.”

Cleveland – which is without power forward Kevin Love and point guard Kyrie Irving – is on an improbable run, riding James’ 41.0 PPG and Matthew Dellavedova’s tough defense to two straight wins (both straight up and ATS), while benefitting from uncharacteristically poor offensive play from Golden State.

The Cavs’ health concerns took yet another blow after Game 3 as Dellavedova had to be rushed to the hospital due to severe dehydration and Iman Shumpert is now dealing with a shoulder injury. James’ heroics have been a fantastic story so far, but Cleveland can’t sustain this for six or seven games – not with all the injury problems. That’s why, regardless of trends and storylines, the Warriors (-2.5) are the play in Game 4.

Pick: Warriors (-2.5).

(Photo credit: Keith Allison (flickr) [https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/legalcode]. Photo has been cropped.)