NBA Finals Props – Let’s Do It All Over Again

It was tense for a moment, but ultimately fans ended up with the best possible NBA Finals match-up they could’ve hoped for (at least until an all-Western Conference battle becomes a possibility). For the second-year in a row, the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Golden State Warriors will battle for the Larry O’Brien Trophy, starting in Oakland on Thursday night.

I was especially thrilled, since it would allow me to simply reuse last year’s Finals props all over again!

Huh? You say they’re vastly different teams this time around? I’ll be the judge of that.

The Warriors’ roster didn’t undergo any major changes last year, and that cohesion allowed this team to rattle off an NBA-record 73 wins in the regular season. The playoffs provided a few speed bumps, like an injury to two-time MVP Steph Curry, but ultimately, they ended up where they belong. Now, the Warriors will either cap off their storybook season with a championship, or match their total number of regular season losses in the playoffs.

The Cavaliers don’t look much different either, on paper. But the team is far healthier this year, with both Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving at full strength heading into the series. Cleveland has also spent the last few months emulating the Warriors style of play, improving their ball movement and three-point shooting. In fact, the Cavs set an NBA-record in the second round, making 25 threes in a single game.

So both teams look better this time around; does it mean the results will be any different? Cleveland fans hoping to see their city’s 52-year title drought come to an end sure hope so. Let’s look at all the odds with another classic set of finals props. (By classic, I’m referring to our great Stanley Cup props.)

2016 NBA Finals Props

Odds to win the Finals:

Warriors: 5/11
Cavaliers: 11/5

Cleveland’s well-rested and playing great basketball. But this Golden State team set an NBA record for a reason. When Curry isn’t killing you, Klay Thompson or Draymond Green or Andre Iguodala is. They’ve only lost three games at the Oracle all year, so having home court advantage is huge. Cleveland may be undefeated at home in the playoffs, but it’s not like the Eastern Conference gave them a ton of competition.

Exact number of games prop: Odds the …

Cavaliers win in four games: 25/1
Cavaliers win in five games: 11/1
Cavaliers win in six games: 20/3
Cavaliers win in seven games: 6/1
Warriors win in four games: 15/1
Warriors win in five games: 5/1
Warriors win in six games: 5/2
Warriors win in seven games: 13/3

Odds to win the Finals MVP:

Stephen Curry: 2/1
LeBron James: 2/1
Klay Thompson: 5/1
Draymond Green: 9/1
Kyrie Irving: 9/1
FIELD: 10/1

Odds on which player will lead the Finals in points-per-game:

Stephen Curry: 1/1
LeBron James: 7/3
Klay Thompson: 7/1
Kyrie Irving: 10/1
FIELD: 30/1

Odds Stephen Curry will play in at least one Finals game without making a three pointer: 125/1

Curry has made at least one three in every game he’s played since Nov 11, 2014. 

Odds on who will make most three-pointers during the Finals:

Stephen Curry: 5/4
Klay Thompson: 3/2
JR Smith: 15/2
FIELD: 15/1

Over/under on the length (in feet/inches) of the longest shot Steph Curry makes in the Finals: 30.5

Odds on which team makes more three-point field goals in the series:

Warriors: 7/12
Cavaliers: 12/7

Cleveland has been shooting the lights out from beyond the arc this postseason, making 43.4-percent of their threes. But over the course of a playoff series, who do you trust more to make big shots: a Cavs team that’s been shooting well for three rounds, or a Warriors team that’s been shooting well for three years?

Odds of a player breaking Danny Green’s record of 27 three-pointers in a series: 11/10

Over/under on number of three-pointers made by Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson combined in the Finals: 51.5

Over/under on number of three-pointers made by the Cavaliers in the Finals: 79.5

Odds to register a triple-double in the Finals:

LeBron James: 23/20
Draymond Green: 7/2
Steph Curry: 12/1
Field: 14/1
No one: 4/1

James had two triple-doubles in last year’s Finals, while Green had one. But with LeBron’s supporting cast healthy this time around, he won’t need to be Mr. Everything in this series: perhaps his numbers drop too?

Odds to have more combined points and assists during the Finals:

Stephen Curry: 10/13
LeBron James: 6/5

Over/under on number of flagrant/technical fouls by Draymond Green during the Finals: 0.5

Two more technical fouls or one more flagrant foul will result in a one-game suspension for Green. You’d have to think he’ll at least try to be on his best behavior. Good news for Kevin Love’s future kids. Speaking of that…

Odds Draymond Green will kick at least one Cavaliers player in the groin during the Finals: 12/1

Odds Draymond Green will miss at least one game in the Finals due to suspension: 7/5

Odds of ABC’s TV replay analyst Steve Javie getting the first video replay correct: 4/3

Over/under percentage of replays ABC TV replay analyst Steve Javie gets correct during the series: 50-percent

Odds on which topic commissioner Adam Silver will spend the most time on during his state of the league press conference:

Labor, league economics, and/or media deals: 4/1
On-court rules: 7/1
The 2017 All-Star Game in Charlotte and/or North Carolina’s HB2 law: 7/1
The Olympics/international basketball: 7/1
Early-entry rules for college players: 9/1
Gambling, daily fantasy, and/or Las Vegas: 10/1
Expansion (as it relates to cities other than Vegas): 10/1
Franchise/ownership issues: 12/1
Player behavior/image: 14/1
Quality of play: 18/1
FIELD: 20/1

(Photo credit: Keith Allison (flickr) [https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/legalcode]. Photo has been cropped.)