2018 NBA Draft Betting Advice: How to Play the Over/Unders

The 2018 NBA Draft is still seven months away, but scouts and general managers are already losing sleep over who they’ll select. The good news for worrywarts around the league is that this year’s class is loaded with can’t-miss prospects. There are physical freaks with 7’9” wingspans, lightning quick guards who can score 30 in their sleep, and throwback big-men who can dunk for days.

As we get closer to June, online sportsbooks will offer props on the draft, including who will go first overall and over/unders on draft position for the top 30 or so prospects.

To make sure you’re ready and informed when the time comes, we’ve created our first mock draft of the season with our selections for the lottery picks (top 14), and some early betting advice on their potential over/unders. Who will go first overall depends to a great extent on which team owns the top pick, so we can’t provide much wagering guidance on that front just yet.

1. DeAndre Ayton (Arizona)

The NBA is becoming increasingly smaller, but there’s always room for a player like DeAndre Ayton, an imposing 7’0” center with an impossibly long 7’5″ wingspan. The Bahamian big man showed just how dominant he can be by exploding for 27 points and 14 rebounds in a recent 90-84 loss to NC State. His hands are awful and his low-post game is virtually non-existent, but he has the kind of size and instincts that can’t be taught.

Betting Advice: Ayton is as raw as they come, but there are three-to-five NBA teams that would gladly lose 65 games this season just to scoop him up. Take the under if sportsbooks set their sights on more polished players and fail to recognize Ayton’s off-the-charts potential. Barring injury (a caveat that applies to all players below), we would jump on the under if the O/U is no. 3 overall or greater. Depending on who owns the top two picks, the under could still have significant value at 2.5.

2. Luka Doncic (Real Madrid)

European players are typically viewed as projects, but that isn’t the case with Luka Doncic, who has emerged as one of the best players on the continent in his second season with Real Madrid. The 6’8” Slovenian swingman is averaging 16.6 points, 6.2 rebounds, and 4.4 assists per game, and has the range and innate feel for the game that will instantly translate to the NBA. Doncic’s ceiling is lower than some of his peers due to his limited athleticism, but GMs see him as a safe bet who will be able to step in and contribute immediately.

Betting Advice: In a draft full of unproven teenagers, Doncic is as close to a sure thing as you’ll find. That’s a crucial factor for GMs who need to keep their jobs, and for franchises that can’t afford to play around with their future. Make sure to take the under if he slips out of the top three on any sportsbooks.

3. Marvin Bagley (Duke)

Marvin Bagley is a freshman in name only. The 6’11” center has looked like a seasoned pro in his first five games at Duke, where he’s averaging 19.2 points, nine rebounds and one steal in 26.4 minutes per game. He has the fluidity you look for in a modern big, and just enough ferocity to make you believe he can go toe to toe with the likes of DeMarcus Cousins and Hassan Whiteside.

Betting Advice: Bagley would be a consensus number-one pick a lot of years. Like with Doncic, take the under if any sportsbook dares to rank him outside of the top three picks.

4. Michael Porter Jr. (Missouri)

Michael Porter Jr. was on top of numerous mock drafts until November 21st, when Missouri announced they were pulling the plug on his freshman season due to a lower-back injury. The 19-year-old has since undergone a microdiscectomy of his L3-L4 spinal discs and will be on the shelf for the next three to four months. It would be a big blow for most prospects, but Porter Jr. isn’t most prospects. The 6’10” forward led his high-school team to an undefeated 29-0 season, and was the MVP of the McDonald’s All-American Game.

Betting Advice: Barring a serious setback during his recovery, there’s virtually zero chance that MPJ will fall outside of the top five in the 2018 NBA Draft. Bet the under if you find a sportsbook that takes an overly cautious approach and sets the O/U any greater than five. If you find an O/U that is five on the nose, still take it. You should get a push, at worst.

5. Mohamed Bamba (Texas)

Mo Bamba may have the longest arms you’ll ever see. That probably presents some problems when he’s buying suits off the rack, but it’s a huge positive in today’s NBA, where scouts value size and length above nearly all other attributes. His 7’9” wingspan and 9’6” standing reach have already come in handy at Texas, where the Harlem native is averaging 14 points, nine rebounds, and 4.5 blocks per game. His offensive game is rawer than chicken sashimi, but his ability to alter shots and protect the rim makes him a prized commodity.

Betting Advice: Every team could use a defensive presence like Bamba, but not every team can afford the two to three years it will take for him to refine his touch and develop some bankable post moves. You’ll want to consider team need before putting mo’ money on Bamba, but right now he’s a consensus top-five, so an O/U at 5.5 or greater will scream under.

6. Jaren Jackson Jr. (Michigan State)

The Yin to Miles Bridges’ Yang, Jaren Jackson Jr. is already off to a blazing start at Michigan State, averaging 10.7 points, 8.0 rebounds, and 2.3 blocks per game. The 6’11”, 240-pound behemoth looked especially impressive in an 88-81 loss to Duke, going off for 19 points, seven boards, and three swats.

Betting Advice: The sky’s the limit for Jackson Jr., who can change shots in the lane on one end, and nail threes with ease at the other. But he’s not a top-five prospect just yet. If there was an O/U of five or lower right now, the over would be the play. But he’d be a great bet for the no. 6 or 7 pick, so anything greater than 6.5 puts the value on the under.

7. Robert Williams (Texas A&M)

Williams likely would have been a lottery pick last year after averaging 11.9 points, 8.2 rebounds, and 2.5 blocks per game, but he opted to come back for his sophomore season to smooth out the rough edges in his game. The decision has paid off so far for the 6’10”, 241-pound pivot, who is averaging a double-double in his first two games following a suspension. He projects to be a plus defender and shot blocker at the next level and will likely be the first or second big off the bench in his rookie campaign.

Betting Advice: Williams believes he can be a top-five pick, and many NBA insiders agree. Take the under if sportsbooks place him outside of the top 6.5.

8. Miles Bridges (Michigan State)

Miles Bridges shocked many pundits by returning to Michigan State after averaging 16.9 points and 8.3 rebounds per game and earning All Big Ten honors as a freshman. He’s since increased his production to 19.7 points per game and is our favorite for Naismith College Player of the Year honors. Bridges is a little undersized at 6’7”. But then again, so was fellow Spartan Draymond Green, and that seems to have worked out just fine.

Betting Advice: Bridges will undoubtedly become a better player by playing an additional season of college ball, but it could have a detrimental effect on his draft stock. The more scouts see him play, the more they’ll dissect his game and question his ceiling. Sportsbooks are sure to love him because of his name recognition, but you’d be well advised to play it cool and take the over if a sportsbook ranks him among the top seven picks.

9. Kevin Knox (Kentucky)

Anyone who saw Kevin Knox’s coming out party against Kansas knows just how special this young man can be. The 6’9” forward finished with 20 points and seven rebounds in Kentucky’s heartbreaking 65-61 loss, and looked like the best player on the court for long stretches. His ability to play both forward positions makes him a perfect fit in today’s free-flowing NBA.

Betting Advice: Knox is far from the best forward in the draft, but he’ll likely get a bit of a bump from sportsbooks due to the massive exposure he’ll receive as a member of the Wildcats. See past the hype and take the over if his O/U is in the 6.5-8.0 range.

10. Collin Sexton (Alabama)

Collin Sexton can flat out score. The 6’2” point guard topped 31 points per game in Nike’s hyper-competitive EYBL circuit, and is already averaging 25.3 points, 4.7 assists, and 1.3 steals in Alabama’s first four games. The 18-year-old freshman lacks the size most scouts and GMs covet, but every team could use his instant offense off the bench.

Betting Advice: Sexton is a bona fide lottery pick, but his gaudy stats on a middling Alabama team will likely lead to him being overvalued by most sportsbooks. An O/U around 7.5 or 8.5 would make the over the safe bet.

11. Wendell Carter Jr. (Duke)

Wendell Carter Jr.’s greatest strength is his strength. Like Al Jefferson and Moses Malone before him, the 6’10”, 260-pound Atlanta native is a big-bodied bruiser who can dominate on the block. He’ll need to shed a few pounds and improve his quickness to compete at the next level, but he’s ready to bang with the big boys based on his size alone.

Betting Advice: Carter Jr. is bound to put up big numbers against smaller posts this season, but don’t let that fool you into thinking he’s better than he is. His throwback game is an awkward fit in today’s NBA and he could easily slip out of the lottery. You won’t regret taking the over if his O/U is set at 10 or lower.

12. Hamidou Diallo (Kentucky)

Hamidou Diallo might just be the top athlete in the draft thanks to his ridiculous 44” vertical and 6’11” wingspan. Those measurements are unfair in any player, but especially in a hyper-athletic, fearless baller like Diallo, who appears to be on a mission to posterize every big man in college basketball.

Betting Advice: Diallo may be a human highlight reel, but he still isn’t a complete basketball player. Unless his ball-handling and jump shot catch up with his otherworldly athleticism, take the over on any O/U lower than 11.

13. Mikal Bridges (Villanova)

Mikal Bridges’ decision to return to Villanova for his junior season is looking better by the day as the 6’6” wing has been dominating younger, less-seasoned opponents. The Malvern, Pennsylvania native has increased his scoring average from 9.8 to 18.0 points per game and is clearly making the most of his additional possessions now that Josh Hart and Kris Jenkins have moved on.

Betting Advice: Bridges may not be a sexy pick, but he’s the kind of archetypal three-and-D player who thrives in today’s NBA. Take the under if sportsbooks rank him outside the lottery.

14. Lonnie Walker (Miami)

Lonnie Walker was ranked no. 13 in the ESPN Top 100, and it’s easy to see why. The 6’4” freshman is a tough-as-nails shooting guard capable of crashing the boards and playing lockdown defense. His focus remains a concern, but there are few better two-guards in the country when he’s fully dialed in.

Betting Advice: Walker tore the meniscus in his right knee in July and many sportsbooks are likely to undervalue him as a result. Don’t make the same mistake. Take the under on Walker if his O/U falls outside of the lottery.