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2019-20 Win Total for Jimmy Butler’s Heat Opens at Just 42.5; Is the Over the Play?

Eric Rosales

by Eric Rosales in NBA Basketball

Updated Mar 27, 2020 · 9:44 AM PDT

Jimmy Butler and Dwyane Wade
Jimmy Butler will be sliding into Dwyane Wade's closer role for the Heat this season. Photo from @Complex (Twitter).
  • Miami finished 43-39 last season, finishing 10th in the Eastern Conference
  • Heat acquired Jimmy Butler in sign-and-trade with 76ers
  • What is the best bet to make on the Heat win total?

For the past few years, the Miami Heat roster was dotted with a mashup of role players that you wished were on your team’s squad.

After going big-game fishing in free agency, they finally have a star to go along with them.

But with Jimmy Butler in tow after a sign-and-trade with the 76ers, online sportsbooks are not seeing a drastic 2019-20 NBA win totals improvement from a team that won 39 games and finished tenth in the East.

Miami Heat Win Total Odds

Team Win Total  Over Odds Under Odds
Miami Heat 42.5 -110 -110

* Odds taken 07/15/19. For a full list of team win total odds, click the link in the table.

With the West as stacked as its ever been, the East looks like a place where a star can shine. Let’s see just what side of the line you should be dropping your dough on.

Butler is Still in His Prime

For the last two seasons, we’ve watched the Heat gamely battle foes night-in and night-out, using effort and the coaching guile of Erik Spoelstra to stay in contention, and hoping that Dwyane Wade, on his last legs, would be able to carry them home.

Wade’s ‘last dance’ was supposed to be a chance for some of the studs-in-training to take the reins, but Josh Richardson, Hassan Whiteside (both shipped out in the Butler deal) and Justice Winslow weren’t ready to help their vet to the finish line.

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Enter Butler, who showed with the 76ers at age 29 he is still one of the best two-way players in the league, and most importantly for Miami, wants the ball in his hands in the crunch to make the right plays or the big shots.

In his split duties with Minnesota and Philly last season, he still put up 20.0 points, 5.6 rebounds and 4.3 assists, while shooting 46.2% from the field and 34.7% from deep.

Part of a four-headed monster with the 76ers, Butler will now get his wish of being the featured guy, and that should up his free throw attempts back to the elite levels. He went to the stripe just 5.6 times a game last season, he hadn’t gone under 7.1 attempts the previous four campaigns, including a career-best 8.9 attempts in 2017.

What’s the Best Bet to Make?

While stars are nice, the Heat still have good role players and moves to make to improve the roster.

Bam Adebayo is a nice modern day big, while Winslow has slowly developed into one of the up-and-comers in the league. Goran Dragic is an expiring deal, and other vets like Dion Waiters and James Johnson are close to expiring. How the front office turns them over will be key.

Another reason for optimism is the 13th pick of this year’s draft, Tyler Herro. He’s a perfect complimentary piece to Butler: a lights-out shooter that can find open space around the perimeter when Butler does his thing.

The East is open: Milwaukee, Philly, Toronto, Boston and Brooklyn are probably locked into the top five. With Butler, the Heat should be in that 5-6 tier, battling with the Indiana’s and Detroit’s and Orlando’s. Barring injury, I think the bar is set a little too low. Time to cash in.

The Pick: Over 42.5 wins (-110)

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