Houston Rockets vs Los Angeles Clippers: NBA Friday Betting Preview

Planning on wagering on the NBA tonight? We have the latest trends, analytics, and insights to help you make the most of your moneyline, ATS, and over/under bets. Today we focus on the Rockets vs Clippers from the Toyota Center in Houston (8:00 PM ET).

NBA schedule makers must have been rubbing their hands together with glee when they originally slotted tonight’s tilt between the Rockets and Clippers. The game was supposed to be a high-profile homecoming for Chris Paul, who led the Clips to the playoffs in each of his six seasons in L.A.

Instead, Paul will be watching from the sidelines after exiting Wednesday night’s game against the Lakers with a strained left abductor. He won’t be the only star in street clothes either. The Clippers will be without Blake Griffin, plus fellow starters Danilo Gallinari, Wesley Johnson, and Patrick Beverley, all of whom are in various states of recovery.

So who’s left exactly? It’s a fair question, especially for the Clippers, who have had to rely on major contributions from unheralded rookies Sindarius Thornwell, Milos Teodosic, Jawun Evans, C.J. Williams, and Jamil Wilson. The one constant amidst all of the injuries has been the play of super-sub Lou Williams, who is averaging 19.8 points and providing the team with a much-needed spark off the bench. Austin Rivers has also made the most of his increased workload, and is slowly shedding the label of “coach’s kid” and maturing into a bona fide NBA starter.

Fortunately, you won’t need a program to recognize the Rockets. Houston still has the best player on the court (and maybe the planet) in James Harden. The Beard is leading the NBA in scoring and is fresh off of a scorching 51-point performance against the Lakers, albeit in a losing effort. Eric Gordon should return to the starting line-up in place of Paul this evening, and will be flanked by mainstays Ryan Anderson and Trevor Ariza. Human pogo stick Clint Capela is doubtful after sitting out Wednesday’s game with a left heel contusion.

It won’t be the marquee matchup that the NBA was hoping for, but the triple-happy Rockets are worth the price of admission, with or without Paul. Houston is 11-4 sans CP3 this season and has enough weapons to make every game (yes, even against the lowly Clippers) worth watching.

Houston Rockets vs Los Angeles Clippers Team Stats

OFFENSE

DEFENSE

Recent Results

ROCKETS: The Rockets saw their 14-game winning streak come to an end on Wednesday night in a thrilling 122-116 loss to the Lakers. Harden led the way with 51 points on 15-27 shooting, and helped keep Houston in the game after Paul was forced to leave in the fourth quarter. It was the second 50-point game of the season for Harden and the seventh of his career.

CLIPPERS: The Clippers ended a three-game skid by defeating the Clippers 108-95 on Wednesday night. Austin Rivers paced L.A. with 21 points and six assists, and DeAndre Jordan anchored the defense with a game-high 20 rebounds.

Notable Injuries and Absences

ROCKETS: Chris Paul, Clint Capela, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute

Chris Paul strained his left abductor during Wednesday’s game against the Lakers and is currently listed as day-to-day. Clint Capela sat out Wednesday’s game against the Lakers with a left heel contusion and will be a game-time decision tonight. Luc Richard Mbah a Moute is expected to return in early January after suffering a dislocated shoulder in a game against the Hornets.

CLIPPERS: Patrick Beverley, Blake Griffin, Danilo Gallinari, Wesley Johnson

Patrick Beverley is rehabbing from surgery to repair a torn meniscus in his right knee and is gone for the season. Blake Griffin is sidelined indefinitely with a sprained MCL. Danilo Gallinari is expected to miss two more weeks with a left glute contusion. Wesley Johnson sat out Wednesday’s game against the Suns due to a sore foot and is expected to miss the remainder of the week.

Betting the Moneyline

BEST ROCKETS MONEYLINE: -751

BEST CLIPPERS MONEYLINE: +615

ROCKETS STRAIGHT UP TRENDS

• Houston is 13-4 SU at home this season
• Houston is 9-1 SU in its last ten games
• Houston is 24-4 SU as a favorite this season
• Houston is 14-3 SU in conference games
• Houston is 3-1 SU after a loss this season
• Houston is 15-4 SU on one day of rest this season

CLIPPERS STRAIGHT UP TRENDS

• Los Angeles is 5-11 SU on the road this season
• Los Angeles is 4-6 SU in its last ten games
• Los Angeles is 3-12 SU as an underdog this season
• Los Angeles is 8-10 SU in conference games
• Los Angeles is 7-4 SU after a win this season
• Los Angeles is 8-8 SU on one day of rest this season

EXPERT MONEYLINE ADVICE: ROCKETS (-751)

The Rockets and Clippers have both had to play without one or more of their stars this season. The difference is that Houston has done a far better job of weathering the storm. The Rockets are 11-4 when Paul sits, while the Clippers are just 4-7 when Griffin sits.

Houston has been able to continue to perform at a high level thanks to the individual brilliance of Harden, who is averaging a career-high 31.9 points while shooting 45-percent from the floor and 39-percent from behind the arc. His ability to knife through the lane and get to the basket is unparalleled and allows the Rockets to manufacture points almost at will.

Los Angeles, on the other hand, simply doesn’t have another player capable of filling Griffin’s shoes. Their lack of a bankable, secondary star will cost them once again this evening.

Betting Against the Spread

BEST ROCKETS SPREAD: -11.5 (-110)

BEST CLIPPERS SPREAD: +11.5 (-110)

ROCKETS AGAINST THE SPREAD TRENDS 

• Houston is 16-13-1 ATS this season (55.2-percent)
• Houston is 7-9-1 ATS at home this season
• Houston is riding a one-game ATS losing streak

CLIPPERS AGAINST THE SPREAD TRENDS 

• Los Angeles is 15-15 ATS this season (50-percent)
• Los Angeles is 8-8 ATS on the road this season
• Los Angeles is on a one-game ATS winning streak

EXPERT AGAINST THE SPREAD ADVICE: Clippers +11.5 (-110)

Under ordinary circumstances, the red-hot Rockets would blow out the Clippers, but the absence of Paul makes the -11.5 spread a risky proposition. Not only does CP3 average 17.1 points and nine assists per game, but he also relieves Harden for minutes at a time as the primary ball handler in Mike D’Antoni’s staggered lineups. Paul’s absence this evening will put more pressure on Harden to distribute the ball, while also robbing Houston’s second unit of a first-class orchestrator. Make no mistake: the Rockets will win, but without Paul and his endless creativity, they’ll fail to cover the spread.

2017-18 ATS record: 13-7 

Game Total Betting

BEST OVER ODDS: 219 (-110)

BEST UNDER ODDS: 219 (-110)

ROCKETS TOTALS TRENDS

• Houston is 16-14 O/U this season
• Houston is 10-7 O/U at home this season

CLIPPERS TOTALS TRENDS

• Los Angeles is 13-16-1 O/U this season
• Los Angeles is 6-10 O/U on the road this season

EXPERT TOTAL ADVICE: Under 219 (-110)

Looking at the season scoring averages for the Rockets and Clippers will only give you a partial picture. To truly understand how these teams will perform tonight, you have to delve into Houston’s totals without Paul and L.A.’s totals without Griffin, Gallinari, and Beverley.

The Rockets averaged 103.1 points per game in October and November without CP3, and posted their lowest scoring totals of the year with their All-Star captain sitting courtside. The ball tends to stick a little bit more without Paul on the floor, resulting in considerably fewer possessions and lower scores. Consider, as well, that Harden averages just 23 points in his first game after scoring 50 or more.

The Clippers, as you would expect, have struggled mightily without their top three players. L.A. has been scoring 7.6 fewer points per game without Griffin, Gallinari, and Beverley, and has failed to score 100 points in four of its last six games.

Add it all up and we could be in for an uncharacteristically low-scoring game for the Rockets, and yet another sub-100 point performance for the Clippers.

Additional SU Picks

Rockets vs Clippers is just one of nine games on tap on Friday night. Here are our other eight straight up picks.

2017-18 SU record: 98-43