Bucks vs Heat Odds, Spread & Predictions (Jan. 14)

Published: January 13, 2023 at 6:57 pm EST

Giannis Antetokounmpo drives on Onyeka Okongwu — Jan 11, 2023; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo (34) is defended by Atlanta Hawks forward Onyeka Okongwu (17) in the second half at State Farm Arena. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

Miami is a 1-point favorite in the Bucks vs Heat odds on Saturday
Giannis Antetokounmpo (knee soreness) is listed as questionable
The available Bucks vs Heat odds are below, along with injury news and a prediction

For the second time in three days, the Bucks (27-15, 11-10 away) will face the Heat (23-20, 13-9 home) in Miami. Both teams were extremely shorthanded on Thursday when they met, and Miami prevailed 108-102 as the 6-point chalk.

Giannis Antetokounmpo did not play in that contest, but a quick look at the NBA odds suggests he’ll be in the lineup on Saturday afternoon.

Bucks vs Heat Odds

Team	Spread	Moneyline	Total
Milwaukee Bucks	+1 (-110)	-105	OFF
Miami Heat	-1 (-110)	-115	OFF

Odds as of January 13 at Barstool. Claim the Barstool Sportsbook bonus code to bet on the Bucks vs Heat game.

Miami is just a 1-point favorite for this game, while the total is currently off the board. Tip-off is scheduled for 1 pm ET at the Miami-Dade Arean, and will be broadcast nationwide on ABC. Not a bad lead in to Super Wild Card Weekend.

Milwaukee Bucks Betting Analysis

Antetokounmpo sat out Thursday’s matchup with knee soreness and is officially listed as questionable for Saturday. Giannis is worth at least five points to the spread, so the fact that Miami opened that much lower than they closed on Thursday is a strong indicator that he’ll play.

Milwaukee was also missing small forward Khris Middleton, who hasn’t played in a month, and will sit again on Saturday due to a knee injury of his own.

The Bucks shot just 40% from the field without Antetokounmpo, and were outrebounded by 22. His absence left a gaping void in the post, and the Heat took full of advantage. Miami outscored Milwaukee 50-18 in the paint, and grabbed 18 offensive rebounds.

Giannis Antetokounmpo is the first player to total 200+ PTS, 80+ REB, and 30+ AST over a 5-game span since Kareem Abdul-Jabbar in 1972. pic.twitter.com/jy1pyOHfQm

— NBA History (@NBAHistory) January 5, 2023

Giannis, a two-time winner in the NBA MVP odds, has been on fire over the past two and half weeks, putting up video game-like numbers. His last outing was an 18 rebound, 10 assist performance, marking the fourth time in his past seven outings he’s grabbed at least that many boards.

He has two 43+ point games during that stretch, as well as a 55-point effort. Antetokounmpo currently ranks third in scoring and third in rebounding, and is the only reason the Bucks are a top contender in the NBA Championship odds.

If Giannis winds up sitting on Saturday, Milwaukee will be in trouble. The Bucks have lost the last two games Antetokounmpo has missed, averaging just 98.5 points per game, with a -31 point differential.

Elsewhere on the injury front, Serge Ibaka (personal reasons) will sit again after not travelling with the team on their current road trip.

Miami Heat Betting Analysis

Miami, meanwhile, is dealing with plenty of injuries of its own. Kyle Lowry will sit due to a knee injury, while Caleb Martin (quad) and Tyler Herro (Achilles) are questionable. Lowry and Herro have missed the last two games, while Martin hasn’t played since January 4th. They represent three-fifths of the Heat’s starting lineup, but somehow Miami has managed to reel off back-to-back victories.

Reserve guard Gabe Vincent led the way against the Bucks with a career-high 28 points, while Bam Adebayo dominated down low with 24 points and 12 rebounds.

Another game of at least 20 & 10 from Bam 💥 pic.twitter.com/bVjGpSAfAx

— Miami HEAT (@MiamiHEAT) January 13, 2023

After a slow start to the season, Miami has picked up its play recently. They’ve won 11 of 16 games coming in, including seven of the past 10. Sound defense has been the catalyst for this recent run, as they rank seventh in defensive rating over the past 15 games.

They’ve held four of their past six opponents to 102 points or less, and are now the league’s second best scoring defense behind only Cleveland. Their post presence was on display on Thursday, just like it’s been all season. The Heat are yielding the fewest points in the paint per game this season, while ranking second in steal percentage.

Bucks vs Heat Prediction

The recipe for wagering on this game is simple. If you believe Antetokounmpo plays, and you should, fire on Milwaukee. Giannis is one of the premier difference makers in the game and can single handedly carry the Bucks to a victory over Miami. He’ll close the gap between the two teams down low, and prevent the Heat from dominating on the offensive glass.

NBA Top ATS Records

Team	ATS Record
OKC Thunder	26-16-0
Indiana Pacers	25-17-0
Philadelphia 76ers	23-17-1
Milwaukee Bucks	22-17-3
Boston Celtics	24-19-0

Despite their victory last time out, the Heat have been abysmal as favorites, especially at home. Miami has covered in only nine of 30 games when laying points this season, and are 4-13-2 ATS in their own building.

Milwaukee on the other hand, has the league’s fourth best cover rate (56.4%) and average four more points per outing with Giannis in the lineup.

Pick: Milwaukee Bucks +1 (-110)

Chris Amberley

Sports Writer

As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.

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