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Bucks vs Heat Predictions & Odds (Jan. 12)

Eric Rosales

by Eric Rosales in NBA Basketball

Jan 11, 2023 · 8:45 PM PST

Jimmy Butler fist bumps Victor Oladipo
Jan 10, 2023; Miami, Florida, USA; Miami Heat forward Jimmy Butler (22) celebrates with guard Victor Oladipo (4) after scoring against the Oklahoma City Thunder during the fourth quarter at FTX Arena. Mandatory Credit: Rich Storry-USA TODAY Sports
  • The Milwaukee Bucks are 1-point favorites when they visit the Miami Heat on January 12
  • Milwaukee is playing on the second night of a back-to-back
  • Read below for the Bucks vs Heat odds and predictions

Swept out of the first round a year ago, the Miami Heat (22-20, 12-9 home) will get a look at the team that sent them packing for the first time since, when they host the Milwaukee Bucks (27-14, 11-9 away).

This is the first of a 2-game mini set that will be played in South Beach.

It’s also the Bucks’ second game in as many nights, coming off a win Tuesday in Atlanta.

The Heat beat the the Oklahoma City Thunder Monday, but they’re even more dinged up than the Bucks for this matchup.

It tips off Thursday (Jan 12) at 7:30pm ET from FTX Arena, in a game you can catch live on NBA League Pass.

Bucks vs Heat Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Milwaukee Bucks +1 (-115) -110 OFF
Miami Heat -1 (-105) -110 OFF

Odds as of January 11 at DraftKings. Claim the DraftKings promo code to bet on the Bucks vs Heat game.


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This is about as close to a pick’em as you’ll find in the NBA odds, with the Bucks listed as a 1-point road favorite. Both teams open an equal -110 on the moneyline.

Miami is 12-9 at home on the year, while the Bucks are 11-9 on the road.

Milwaukee Betting Analysis

For the second time in three games — and the first two times this season — Giannis Antetokounmpo failed to score in double digits. Fortunately, it didn’t cost the team, as the rest of the Bucks lifted their MVP in a 114-105 win over the Hawks.

That’s four wins in the last five for Milwaukee.

Jrue Holiday had 27 points, four rebounds and five assists, while Brook Lopez added 20 points and 12 boards. Bobby Portis had 13 points and 10 boards, giving him a double-double in eight of his last 10. Giannis had seven points, but did grab 18 rebounds and 10 assists.

All-star forward Khris Middleton missed his 13th straight game with right knee soreness, and will be out Thursday. Another key player, Grayson Allen, left the Atlanta game with an ankle sprain, and is questionable. Reserve big man Serge Ibaka (personal) is also out.

Milwaukee has been able to succeed with Antetotkounmpo’s talent and leadership, and a defense that keeps them in games. On the year, they’re sixth in scoring defense, holding teams to 111 points per game. Teams shoot just 45.1% from the field (2nd) and 34.5% from distance (6th).

Miami Betting Analysis

The Heat picked up their sixth win in the last nine with a 112-111 victory over the Thunder. Miami set the NBA record for most free throw makes in a game without a miss, drilling a perfect 40-for-40.

Jimmy Butler was 23-for-23 at the stripe, finishing with a game-high 35 points, his and-1 proving to be the winning points. Butler also had seven rebounds, four assists and four steals. Max Strus finished with 22 points and seven rebounds, while Victor Oladipo came off the bench for 19 points, four rebounds and four dimes.

Miami did it with a skeleton staff, which will get even thinner after Dewayne Dedman got a team-imposed 1-game suspension for arguing with coach Erik Spoelstra and throwing a massage gun onto the court.

He’ll join Kyle Lowry (knee), Tyler Herro (Achilles), Caleb Martin (quadriceps) and Duncan Robinson (finger) who are already ruled out. Bam Adebayo (wrist), is listed as probable.

Miami will likely need to lean on their defense: they’re second in scoring defense, limiting opponents to 109 points per game. They’re in the mid-20s range when it comes to field-goal and 3-point shooting defense, but their defense feasts on turnovers.

The Heat force teams into 16.6 turnovers a game (3rd), and turn those into 19.1 points per game (6th). Teams get off just 83.6 shot attempts per game, the 2nd-lowest figure in the league.

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Bucks vs Heat Betting Prediction

Milwaukee has been a bulletproof bet playing on consecutive nights this year, going 5-0 against the spread in their five games with zero days rest. They have struggled on the road, though, running a 3-7-1 ATS mark in their last 11 away from home.

At 6-14-1 ATS, Miami owns the worst home winning percentage in the NBA this season. They’re also just 1-5 ATS in their last six at home vs teams with a winning road record.

Throw in the Heat injuries and the quality of opponent entering the building, and this game should fit right into that trend.

Pick: Bucs -1 (-110); 1.5 units to win 1.36 units

  • NBA Betting Record: 21-17 ATS, 1-1 ML, 4-3 o/u, 0-2 parlays; +0.30 units
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