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Celtics vs Heat Game 4 Picks, Predictions & Same-Game Parlay (May 23)

Eric Rosales

by Eric Rosales in NBA Basketball

Updated May 22, 2023 · 7:00 PM PDT

Bam Adebayo and Gabe Vincent celebrate on court
May 21, 2023; Miami, Florida, USA; Miami Heat center Bam Adebayo (13) and guard Gabe Vincent (2) celebrate after a basket during the third quarter against the Boston Celtics in game three of the Eastern Conference Finals for the 2023 NBA playoffs at Kaseya Center. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports
  • The Miami Heat are 1.5-point favorites over the Celtics, looking for the sweep in Game 4 of the East Finals
  • Miami hammered Boston 128-102 in Game 3 to take a commanding 3-0 series lead
  • Don’t miss the latest Celtics vs Heat Game 4 odds, a 4-leg Same-Game parlay and our betting prediction

The Miami Heat are just a win away from sweeping the Boston Celtics out of the Eastern Conference Finals and claiming a berth in the NBA Finals.

After taking the first two in Boston, Miami put themselves in major pole position with a soul-draining 128-102 Game 3 blowout of the 2nd-seeded Celtics, who owned the second-best record in the NBA this season.

Teams who have built a 3-0 series lead are a perfect 149-0 in NBA Playoff history.

Game 4 goes Wednesday (May 23) at 8:30pm ET from the Kaseya Center in Miami, FL. You can watch the game live on TNT.

Celtics vs Heat Game 4 Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Boston Celtics +1.5 (-117) -104 O 216 (-117)
Miami Heat -1.5 (-117) -131 U 216 (-117)

Unbelievably, Game 4 will be the first time in this series the Heat are favored in the NBA lines. Miami are 1.5-point home favorites and -131 on the moneyline, an implied win probability of 56.71%.

The total inches up a point from last game, to 216. The teams have gone over in each game this series.

Once the betting favorite in the NBA Championship odds, Boston is now a distant third at +1200, while the Heat have closed to +260, looking up at only Denver, who are the -220 pick to take it all.


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Odds as of May 22 at Caesars Sportsbook

Miami Role Players Outshine C’s Stars

Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo have been the driving force in this seres, but a quarter of role guys laid waste to a Boston team that entered the playoffs ranked second in both offensive and defensive rating.

Gabe Vincent dropped a career-high 29 points on a crisp 11-for 14 from the field. Duncan Robinson hopped off the bench for 22 points on 7-for-11 shooting, while Caleb Martin added 18 points. Both had four dimes.

Max Strus added 10 points, giving the Heat a whopping 79 points from a group that was considered a weakness past Jimmy and Bam, especially against the deeper Celtics.

Meanwhile, Boston’s all-stars were no-shows in the biggest game of the year. Jayson Tatum shot 6-for-18 for 14 points and 10 boards and Jaylen Brown shot 6-for-17, for 12 points.

The pair combined to shoot a woeful 1-for-14 from three-point range in Game 3, and combined for six more turnovers. Brown is just 2-for-20 from beyond the arc in the series.

A Marcus Smart three-point play opened the third quarter and cut Miami’s lead to 12, but that was the closest Boston would be the rest of the game, as the Heat expanded the lead to as many as 30+ in the frame.

Miami again outgunned the Celtics from distance, hitting 19-for-35 from downtown, a stellar 54.3% clip. The Celtics could only muster 11-for-42, a lowly 26.2% mark.

The top 3-point shooting team in the playoffs, Boston has been outscored by 39 in the series, shooting 31-for-106, a brutal 29.2% rate.

Boston vs Miami Same-Game Parlay

We’ve cooked up a sweet Same-Game parlay for Game 4, starting with one of the best players for the Heat this series. Caleb Martin’s scoring alone has topped the 13.5 total in each game so far, so we like him to top his points-assists mark.

Strictly on percentages, Max Strus has gone five games without a single turnover, and that’s the his longest stretch of turnover-free ball this playoffs, surpassing the 4-game stretch between Game 5 vs the Bucks and Game 3 vs the Knicks.

Celtics vs Heat Game 4 Same-Game Parlay

Pick Odds
Caleb Martin OVER 13.5 pts & ast -113
Max Strus OVER 0.5 turnovers +123
Jaylen Brown UNDER 23.5 points -108
Kevin Love UNDER 1.5 three-point makes -189
Same-Game Parlay Odds +1100

While he isn’t using it as an excuse, Brown’s hand injury just prior to the playoffs and aggravated a few times during this run has thrown off his shooting. He hasn’t surpassed 23.5 points all series, and we’re banking on him not doing it again.

As for Kevin Love, he left Game 3 in the first quarter with an ankle injury and didn’t return. While circumstances dictated him staying sidelined, let’s bank on the Heat veteran taking it easy in Game 4.

That’s a 4-leg parlay that pays out at +1100 odds, meaning a $10 bet could net you $110 in profits.

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Celtics vs Heat Prediction

If you’re betting on Boston’s resilience, you would have seen that in a must-win Game 3. Whether it’s a bad matchup, or bad play, the Celtics are now 0-5 against the spread in their last five meetings against the Heat.

Miami, meanwhile, is feasting on top-tier competition, going 6-0 ATS in their last six games against teams with a winning percentage of .600 or better. They’re also 8-1 ATS in their last nine games following a win.

Look for Miami to make quick work of a Boston team that’s clearly been rattled, and searching for answers.

Pick: Heat -1.5 (-117)

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