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Dallas Mavericks vs OKC Thunder Odds, Predictions, Player Props & Injury Reports (May 15)

Sascha Paruk

by Sascha Paruk in NBA Basketball

Updated May 15, 2024 · 9:04 AM PDT

Oklahoma City Thunder forward Chet Holmgren getting fouled by Dallas Mavericks guard Luka Doncic
May 13, 2024; Dallas, Texas, USA; Dallas Mavericks guard Luka Doncic (77) fouls Oklahoma City Thunder forward Chet Holmgren (7) as center Daniel Gafford (21) looks on during the second half in game four of the second round for the 2024 NBA playoffs at American Airlines Center. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
  • Tied at two games apiece, the Dallas Mavericks and OKC Thunder play a massive Game 5 on Wednesday
  • The Thunder overcame a double-digit deficit on the road to even the best-of-seven series on Monday night
  • See the Dallas Mavericks vs OKC Thunder Game 5 odds, predictions, player props, and injury reports on May 15

The Oklahoma City Thunder (63-27, 36-9 home, 51-38-1 ATS) used a massive fourth quarter to come from behind to beat the Dallas Mavericks (53-39, 28-18 away, 53-39 ATS) on Monday and now head back home for Game 5 of the best-of-seven series tied at two games apiece. Dallas managed a split in OKC, winning Game 2 (119-10), but enter Game 5 as four-point road underdogs.

Tip-off is scheduled for 8:40 pm CT/9:40 pm ET at Paycom Arena in Oklahoma City tonight.

Dallas Mavericks vs OKC Thunder Game 5 Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Dallas Mavericks +4 (-110) +145 O 213 (-110)
OKC Thunder -4 (-110) -175 U 213 (-110)

The Thunder head into Game 5 as -175 home favorites on the moneyline, giving them a 63.64% implied win probability. The Mavericks are +145 underdogs to win straight-up, a 40.82% implied win probability.

The over/under is sitting at 213. The teams are averaging just 210.8 PPG through the first four, three of which stayed under their totals. The O/U has steadily decreased from 218.5 in Game 1.

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Odds as of May 15 at Fanatics. Lock in a Fanatics Sportsbook promo to bet on Mavs/Thunder Game 5 on Wednesday. 

The winner of the Mavs/Thunder series will advance in the NBA playoff bracket to face the winner of the T-Wolves/Nuggets in the Western Conference final. Reigning NBA-champion Denver leads Minnesota 3-2 after winning its third straight last night.

The NBA conference odds now list the Nuggets as odds-on favorites (as short as -125) to win the West for the second straight season.

DAL vs OKC Game 5 Betting Splits

Wednesday’s NBA public betting splits show an almost even split for Game 5. While Dallas is getting slightly more of the ATS money (52% of handle), Oklahoma City is getting more of the moneyline handle (55%) as -175 home chalk.

The one area where the public is taking a firm stance is on the total. As of noon ET, 83% of game-total handle was on the over, despite the under going 3-1 in the series to date.

SGA Dominates Game 4 to Even Series

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had his best game of the playoffs last time out, dropping a game-high 34 points on 14-of-27 shooting with eight rebounds, five assists, two blocks, and two steals. Luguentz Dort finished with 17 points and eight rebounds and was superb guarding Luka Doncic one-one-one. The Mavs’ superstar finished with just 18 points on 6-of-20 shooting, though his lingering knee injury likely had something to do with that as well.

YouTube video

Dallas led by as many as 14 early in the second half, at which point the Mavs had a 92.1% win probability, according to ESPN. But the Thunder trimmed the deficit to just four points by the end of the third quarter and proceeded to dominate in the fourth, despite shooting just 7-of-27 from beyond the arc in the game.

Doncic is once again on the injury report ahead of Game 5, as he has been for the last two games in the series. Luka is battling a knee injury that’s rendering him noticeably slower. The Thunder remain completely healthy going into Wednesday night.

DAL vs OKC Game 5 Player Props

Player Points Rebounds Assists Three-Pointers Made
Aaron Wiggins (OKC) 7.5 (Ov +114 | Un -135) 2.5 (Ov -148 | Un +124) OFF 0.5 (Ov -162 | Un +360)
Chet Holmgren (OKC) 14.5 (Ov -122 | Un +102) 8.5 (Ov -115 | Un -105) 2.5 (Ov +150 | Un -180) 1.5 (Ov -105 | Un -115)
Daniel Gafford (DAL) 9.5 (Ov +110 | Un -130) 6.5 (Ov -120 | Un -100) OFF OFF
Dereck Lively II (DAL) 6.5 (Ov -120 | Un -100) 6.5 (Ov +114 | Un -135) OFF OFF
Derrick Jones Jr (DAL) 8.5 (Ov -120 | Un -100) 3.5 (Ov -155 | Un +130) OFF 0.5 (Ov -225 | Un +185)
Isaiah Joe (OKC) OFF 2.5 (Ov +145 | Un -175) OFF 1.5 (Ov +114 | Un -135)
Jalen Williams (OKC) 19.5 (Ov -115 | Un -105) 5.5 (Ov +105 | Un -125) 5.5 (Ov +124 | Un -148) 1.5 (Ov -100 | Un -120)
Kyrie Irving (DAL) 21.5 (Ov -102 | Un -118) 4.5 (Ov -105 | Un -115) 5.5 (Ov -166 | Un +140) 2.5 (Ov -110 | Un -110)
Luguentz Dort (OKC) 10.5 (Ov -118 | Un -102) 4.5 (Ov +102 | Un -122) OFF 2.5 (Ov +142 | Un -170)
Luka Doncic (DAL) 27.5 (Ov -125 | Un +105) 9.5 (Ov -142 | Un +120) 8.5 (Ov -115 | Un -105) 2.5 (Ov -166 | Un +140)
PJ Washington (DAL) 15.5 (Ov -110 | Un -110) 6.5 (Ov -142 | Un +130) OFF 2.5 (Ov -125 | Un +105)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC) 31.5 (Ov -125 | Un +105) 7.5 (Ov -115 | Un -105) 6.5 (Ov +110 | Un -130) 1.5 (Ov +140 | Un -166)
Tim Hardaway Jr (DAL) 6.5 (Ov -112 | Un -108) 2.5 (Ov +136 | Un -162) OFF 1.5 (Ov +102 | Un -122)

DAL vs OKC Game 5 NBA player props come from DraftKings on May 15.

Doncic’s point total has come all the way down from 32.5 ahead of Game 1 to just 27.5 for Game 5. Gilgeous-Alexander, on the other hand, has seen his point total rise from 28.5 to 31.5. Doncic is averaging 26.7 in the playoffs, down from 33.9 in the regular season. SGA is sitting at 29.5 PPG in the postseason.

Mavericks vs Thunder Game 5 Predictions

Game 5 felt like the end of the line for the Mavericks. Not only did they blow a huge opportunity to take a 3-1 series lead, Doncic looked to be laboring and lacked agility to cut through Dort’s on-ball defense. Head coach Jason Kidd really hasn’t found a way to use Doncic and Kyrie Irving effectively as a tandem, and I don’t expect that to change in Game 5.

The young Thunder clearly have the fresher legs at this point and you can expect another phenomenal defensive effort in a huge Game 5. When the series is tied 2-2, teams that win Game 5 have gone on to win the series 83% of the time.

The spread has already moved to 4.5 at most sportsbooks so, if you like the Thunder as much as I do, bet them sooner rather than later.

DAL vs OKC picks:

  • Thunder -4 (-110)
  • Doncic under 27.5 points (+105)
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