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Denver Nuggets vs Miami Heat Game 3 Odds, Picks & Predictions (June 7)

Eric Rosales

by Eric Rosales in NBA Basketball

Updated Jun 6, 2023 · 2:37 PM PDT

Bam Adebayo pumped reaction
Jun 4, 2023; Denver, CO, USA; Miami Heat center Bam Adebayo (13) reacts in the fourth quarter against the Denver Nuggets in game two of the 2023 NBA Finals at Ball Arena. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports
  • The Miami Heat are 2.5-point home ‘dogs in Game 3 of the NBA Finals vs the Denver Nuggets
  • Miami handed Denver their first home loss of the playoffs to win Game 2 and even the series
  • Don’t miss the latest Heat vs Nuggets Game 3 odds, analysis and our betting prediction

With a mighty fourth quarter surge that led to a win in Game 2, the Miami Heat may have just flipped the NBA Finals against the Denver Nuggets.

The first team to beat Denver on their home court, Miami returns home for two games, with a chance to bend the 1-1 series in their favor.

However, much like it’s been for most of the playoffs, oddsmakers still aren’t sold on the Heat, pegging the visiting Nuggets as 2.5-point road favorites in the NBA betting odds.

At -160 on the moneyline, Denver has an implied win probability of 61.54%. The game also features a total of 214.5, down slightly from Game 2, when the over hit in Miami’s 111-108 win.

Game 3 goes Wednesday (June 6) at 8:30pm ET from the Kaseya Center in Miami, FL. You can watch the game live on ABC.

Nuggets vs Heat Game 3 Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Denver Nuggets -2.5 (-117) -160 Ov 214.5 (-117)
Miami Heat +2.5 (-117) +116 Un 214.5 (-117)

Denver is just 4-3 on the road in these playoffs, and have just a +4.1 point differential away from Ball Arena. The biggest issue is defensively, where they surrender 10 more points per game on the road (113.4) than they do at home (103.1).

Miami is 6-2 at home in the postseason – they’ve lost two straight at Kaseya coming into Game 3.


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Odds as of June 6 at Caesars Sportsbook. Claim a Caesars promo code to bet on Nuggets  vs Heat Game 3. 

Jokic Alone in Game 2

Unlike Game 1, when the Nuggets moved in rhythm and unified in a 103-94 win, Nikola Jokic needed to play lead guitarist, with plenty of solo riffs to keep his team in it.

He finished with 41 points, 11 rebounds and four assists. While he was unstoppable, Miami successfully turned him into a singular force, rather than an all-around maestro that picked the Heat apart with ease last game.

The four dimes were a playoff low, and he also committed five turnovers. Denver was 7-13 during the regular season when he went sub-8 assists.

Denver is now 0-4 all time in playoff games when Joker tops 40+. It’s happened three times in this run.

Perhaps it’s as simple as improved play from the others. Jamal Murray was ineffective for much of the game, with a pair of late 3-balls bringing him to 18 points and 10 assists.

Michael Porter Jr’s jumper has abandoned him: he’s now 3-for-17 from distance in the series, and had just five points and six boards in Game 2, while whiffing on several defensive assignments.

Heat Get Multiple Contributions in Win

We don’t know if Jimmy Butler is hurt or worn down, but he’s yet to find his A-game in the Finals. Still, he impacted the Game 2 win. While he shot just 7-for-19 from the field, Butler finished with 21 points, nine dimes and four boards.

Fortunately, the Heat again got multiple meaningful contributions down the roster. After shooting 40.9% from the field and 33.3% from three in Game 1, Miami improved to 48.7% from the field and a scorching 17-for-35 from distance (48.6%).

Bam Adebayo had 21 points, nine rebounds and four assists, while Kevin Love’s move into the starting lineup stabilized the defense, and stopped Aaron Gordon punishing mismatches. Love added a couple of threes and grabbed 10 boards.

Max Strus bounced back from a brutal 0-for-10 opener by drilling four first-quarter triples, while Gabe Vincent shined with a team-high 23 points, powered by a 4-for-6 mark from downtown.

The biggest impact, however, came from a Duncan Robinson 4th-quarter spurt that quickly erased an 8-point deficit. He scored all of his 10 points in that run, part of Miami blasting Denver 36-25 in the final frame.

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Nuggets vs Heat Game 3 Prediction

It’s Denver’s turn to bounce back, and they’re pretty comfortable at South Beach, going 4-0 against the spread in their last four visits. They’re also a staggering 26-10 ATS in their last 36 head-to-head meetings with the Heat.

Miami has thrived as a home ‘dog, though, going 4-0 ATS in these playoffs.

And yet, I just can’t pull the trigger on the spread, as Denver is still, to me, the superior squad.

With the Nuggets’ better effort in Game 3, I do think Miami can keep pace – they’ve gotten good looks in every game, and it’s just a matter of making them.

The over is 5-2 in the last seven matchups at Kaseya, and I think the trend continues as these teams go toe-to-toe in a dynamite Game 3.

The pick: OVER 214.5 points (-117)

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