Heat vs Celtics Game 1 Odds, Predictions & Props

• The Heat and Celtics begin their Round 1 NBA Playoff series on Sunday
• The latest Heat vs Celtics odds favor the B’s by 14 points at TD Garden
• Read below for Heat vs Celtics Game 1 prediction, odds and player props

The Miami Heat and Boston Celtics are set to do battle in an intriguing Eastern Conference first-round playoff series, with Game 1 tipping off on Sunday, April 21, 2024, at 1:00 PM ET at TD Garden in Boston.

The game will be televised on ABC, and the Celtics are heavily favored, with the current betting odds listing them as 14-point favorites. The over/under for total points is set at 209. Player props have also been released, with Jayston Tatum forecasted to have a big game.

Here is our Game 1 Heat vs Celtics prediction, along with a breakdown of the odds and player props available.

Heat vs Celtics Game 1 Odds

In the Game 1 Heat vs Celtics odds, Boston is a heavy -1000 favorite, giving the Celtics 90.9% implied win probability.

The Celtics occupy the No.1 Eastern seed in the NBA Playoff Bracket, while the Heat are the No.8 seed.

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Odds as of April 20, 2024, at Bet365 Sportsbook. Claim the Bet365 promo code to bet on the Round 1 Heat vs Celtics series.

Miami Heat Betting Analysis

The Heat earned their spot in the playoffs by defeating the Chicago Bulls 112-91 in the Play-In Tournament, despite missing star player Jimmy Butler due to a sprained MCL. Tyler Herro stepped up in Butler’s absence, recording 24 points, 10 rebounds, and nine assists.

Rookie Jaime Jaquez Jr. also impressed on Friday, contributing 21 points in the victory. However, the Heat will face a daunting task against the top-seeded Celtics, who dominated the regular season with a 64-18 record.

Jaime Jaquez Jr. tonight:

21 Points
6 Rebounds
6 Assists
50% FG pic.twitter.com/knugU5DkK1

— Hoop Central (@TheHoopCentral) April 20, 2024

The Heat have struggled with consistency throughout the year. They finished the regular season with a 46-36 record, ranking 21st in offensive efficiency and 5th in defensive efficiency. Miami has been mediocre ATS, covering in just 41 of their 82 games. The over has hit in 35 of the Heat’s games, while the under has hit in 47.

One of the key factors in this series will be the health of Jimmy Butler. The six-time All-Star is expected to miss several weeks with his MCL injury, leaving a significant void in the Heat’s lineup. Butler was a longshot  contender in the NBA MVP odds prior to his injury.

Boston Celtics Odds

Boston, led by the dynamic duo of Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, has been the leaders in the NBA Championship odds throughout the season. Tatum, a frontrunner for the MVP award, averaged 26.9 points, 8.1 rebounds, and 4.9 assists per game, while Brown put up 23.0 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 3.6 assists.

The Celtics also boast a deep roster, with key contributors like Kristaps Porzingis (20.1 points, 7.2 rebounds), Derrick White (15.2 points, 5.2 assists), and Jrue Holiday (12.5 points, 5.4 rebounds, 4.8 assists).

Kristaps Porzingis’ mindset heading into his first playoff series as a Celtic:

“It’s gonna be a war.” pic.twitter.com/yrMrFKQUMj

— Taylor Snow (@taylorcsnow) April 20, 2024

Boston’s offense has been firing on all cylinders, ranking first in the league in offensive efficiency, while their defense is equally impressive, ranking second in defensive efficiency. The Celtics have also been strong against the spread (ATS), covering in 42 of their 82 games this season.

For the Celtics to come out on top, they will need to continue their dominant two-way play. Tatum and Brown have proven to be a nearly unstoppable offensive tandem, capable of scoring from all three levels. Porzingis, who was acquired at the trade deadline, gives Boston a unique weapon with his ability to stretch the floor and protect the rim.

Heat vs Celtics Props

Heat vs Celtics player props have been released at sportsbooks, with individual betting lines available for star players like Jayson Tatum, Tyler Herro and Jaylen Brown. Tatum has the highest point total out of the three star players at 26.5.

Player Prop: Jayson Tatum Over 26.5 Points (-118)

Jayson Tatum has been a scoring machine this season, averaging 26.9 points per game and ranking 7th in the league with 3.1 made three-pointers per contest. He has scored over 26.5 points in 40 of his 74 games played this year.

Against a shorthanded Heat team missing their best perimeter defender in Jimmy Butler, Tatum should have plenty of opportunities to score. The Celtics will likely lean on their superstar to set the tone early and often in this series opener.

Heat vs Celtics Game 1 Prediction

The Celtics have been dominant at home this season, going 37-4 at TD Garden. With the Heat missing their best player and the Celtics firing on all cylinders, expect Boston to make a statement in Game 1 and cover the large spread.

While the Heat will aim to rely on strong performances from Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo, it likely won’t be enough to keep pace with the Celtics’ high-powered offense. Miami has struggled with consistency throughout the year and ranks just 21st in offensive efficiency.

We also like the under in this game given the Heat’s offensive struggles and the Celtics’ elite defense.

MIA vs BOS Game 1 Picks:

• Celtics -14 (-110)
• Under 209 (-110)