Canadiens vs Lightning Prediction, Prop Bets & Odds for Game 5

• The Lightning are -170 moneyline favorites tonight in Game 5 of their 1st Round series vs the Canadiens
• These two teams have combined for only 12 goals at even strength through four games
• See below for my favorite Canadiens vs Lightning predictions and prop bets, plus the latest odds for Game 5

The Canadiens vs Lightning 1st Round series is now a best-of-3. Tampa Bay stole Game 4 to even things 2-2, rallying from a two-goal deficit on their way to a 3-2 victory. Online sportsbooks expect the Lightning to claim tonight’s Game 5 as well, pegging them as -170 favorites in the latest NHL odds.

Puck drop for Game 5 of this Eastern Conference series is scheduled for 7 pm ET from Benchmark International Arena in Tampa, FL. ESPN2 will handle broadcast duties across America, while Sportsnet will carry the game for Canadian viewers.

Here is my favorite Canadiens vs Lightning prediction and prop bets for Game 5, along with the latest odds.

Canadiens vs Lightning Prediction for Game 5

• Canadiens +1.5 (-175 at BetMGM)
• Under 5.5 (+100 at Bet365)

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This series has been very evenly contested no matter which metrics you look at it. It’s fitting that all four games have been decided by a single goal, with the first three contests needing overtime. Neither Montreal or Tampa Bay has been able to separate themselves, and with both struggling to find the back of the net, two bets jump out at me tonight.

First is the Habs +1.5 on the puckline. Yes, you have to pay extra juice to get the cushion, but I feel much more comfortable laying it on this side instead of betting the Tampa Bay moneyline.

From a 5-on-5 standpoint, both teams have scored six times, which is right around the expectation based on the advanced metrics. Montreal boasts a slight advantage in terms of overall scoring chances, but the Bolts have controlled the play for a shade longer and have generated a few more high danger opportunities.

From a special teams perspective, neither team has been elite with the man advantage, with the Habs scoring four times and the Lightning striking five times. Both have generated a similar amount of expected goals, and a similar amount of high danger chances.

It’s not surprising then based on what we just covered, that the play between the pipes has been comparable as well. Both Jakub Dobes and Andrei Vasilevskiy have surrendered 11 goals, with Dobes boasting a slightly higher save percentage. Tampa Bay is still favored to advance in the NHL Playoff Bracket to meet the winner of the Sabres/Bruins series, but no one would be surprised if the Habs moved on given how well they’ve played so far.

Each of the last three games have stayed under the 5.5 goal total, and I’m betting this one will as well. As discussed, goals have been few and far between at even strength, while neither powerplay is lighting the world on fire. Montreal especially has struggled on the PP since Game 1, scoring just once with the man advantage.

Canadiens vs Lightning Odds for Game 5

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If you want to tail my picks tonight, make sure you have access to multiple betting sites. BetMGM has the best odds on the Canadiens +1.5 at -175, while Bet365 is the only book offering plus-money on under 5.5 goals.

Canadiens vs Lightning Prop Bets for Game 5

• Anthony Cirelli Under 1.5 Shots (-135 at Bet365)

Moving over to the NHL props market, where my favorite bet is under 1.5 shots on goal for Tampa Bay’s Anthony Cirelli. He’s been reduced to a defensive role, charged with shutting down the Habs top line. He’s excelled thus far at limiting Cole Caufield and Co. at even strength, but it’s completely taken him out of an offensive mindset. Cirelli has produced just 2 shots on goal through four games, generating only 6 shot attempts.