Heat vs Warriors Odds & Predictions (Oct. 27)

• The Miami Heat are 7.5-point road ‘dogs as they visit the Golden State Warriors
• GState was crushed by the Phoenix Suns last time out
• Read below for the Heat vs Warriors preview, with odds and predictions

Two teams inside the top 10 in the 2023 NBA Championship odds will clash in the Bay Area, as the Miami Heat visit the Golden State Warriors.

Miami stumbled out of the gate, going 1-3 on an opening 4-game homestand. Their first foray on the road brought their best effort of the season, though, handing an L to the previously undefeated Portland Trail Blazers.

Now, on the second night of a back-to-back, they’re taking on the defending champs, who just got smoked last time out against the Suns.

It all gets underway from Chase Center Thursday (October 27) at 10pm ET, in a game that can be seen live on NBA TV.

Heat vs Warriors Odds

Odds as of October 27 at DraftKings. Claim the DraftKings Sportsbook promo code to bet on the Heat vs Warriors game.

The latest NBA odds have the Dubs pegged as 7.5-point favorites, while also getting -300 odds on the moneyline.

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Miami Betting Analysis

It wasn’t exactly been a smooth start for Erik Spoelstra’s club, as they opened with four games against teams that all made the East playoffs.

Miami dropped games to the Bulls, Celtics and Raptors, with their only win against Toronto in the first of a two-game mini set.

Getting away from Biscayne Bay might have been the best remedy, as the Heat put up their best scoring total of the season, beating the Trail Blazers 119-98.

JIMMY BUTLER PUT SOMEBODY IN A POSTER ☕️ pic.twitter.com/KSUlrsucoS

— Naveen Ganglani (@naveenganglani) October 27, 2022

All five starters scored at least 14 points in the win, with none topping 20. Bam Adebayo led the way with 18 points and eight rebounds, while Jimmy Butler had 17 points, five rebounds and five dimes. Kyle Lowry also had 17 points with six assists.

Heading into play Wednesday, the Heat had yet to find their offensive footing, putting up just 103.5 points per game, better than only the LA squads. They were also bottom-10 in both field goal shooting (43.7%) and from beyond the arc (33.1%).

"This set the tone for our road trip"

Max Strus speaks to @TheJaxShow about the Heat in transition, Miami's defense, and his scoring output through the first 5 games@MiamiHEAT | #HEATCulture pic.twitter.com/kAmzzN3eoD

— Bally Sports Sun: HEAT (@BallyHEAT) October 27, 2022

Thankfully, their defense has been consistent, ranking 10th in points allowed at 108.5 per contest. They hold teams to 44.3% shooting from the field (8th-best), though they’ve been getting lit from beyond the arc. Opponents are hitting at a 39.3% clip from deep on 35 attempts.

Wednesday’s win was the second time they’ve held a team under 100 points this season. They also held Portland to 32.4% shooting from deep.

Golden State Betting Analysis

The Dubs’ start to the campaign has been uneven by their standards, as they’ve alternated wins and losses through their first four games. In their latest tilt, they were blown out of the water 134-105 by the Phoenix Suns.

In an uncharacteristic move, Klay Thompson was ejected for the first time in his pro career, after getting into it physically and verbally with Suns’ star Devin Booker.

"They have 4 rings. Repeated over and over. And they do. And they do."

Devin Booker talks about Klay Thompson's trash-talking and how much respect he has for him after Klay's first career ejection. pic.twitter.com/QpJk3OVW7C

— Ballislife.com (@Ballislife) October 26, 2022

As always, the Dubs are offensively elite. Steph Curry leads the way averaging 30.3 points, 5.8 rebounds and 5.3 assists while shooting 44.4% from deep.

Golden State is putting up 120.3 points a game, despite ranking outside the top 10 in three-point shooting (17th) and field goal shooting (12th).

Steph Curry drilled 5 3-pointers on his way to 34 PTS 🎯

34 PTS | 5 REB | 4 AST | 5 3PM pic.twitter.com/642CnLn0Gt

— NBA (@NBA) October 22, 2022

While it’s still early, Golden State’s defense has been a work in progress. They’re currently 2nd-last in points allowed per game, surrendering 124 a night. On nights when they outscore those problems, they look fine, but on nights like Tuesday against Phoenix? It’s ugly.

Other discouraging stats for the Warriors: they’re last in opponent fast break points allowed, as they’re giving up 21.3 points per night. GState is turning the ball over at the 4th-worst rate, and teams are converting those into 22.5 points off turnovers, which is the 2nd-most in the NBA.

They’re also getting drilled inside, as teams are putting up 57.5 points in the paint per game – only the Utah Jazz have allowed more.

Heat vs Warriors Prediction

Golden State didn’t exactly take advantage of teams when they had a rest advantage, posting a 13-11-2 mark against the spread last season. That’s still a better mark than Miami, who posted a 6-8 mark ATS on the second night of a back-to-back.

The Heat are always tough to wager on, as even when they’re sub-.500 early in the campaign. As they showed in Portland, they’re always a threat to show up. “Heat Culture” is real, and throws a wrench into betting plans.

Last year, Miami posted a stellar 16-8-0 mark ATS as a visiting underdog – only the Suns had a better success rate.

While Golden State likely bounces back from that no-show vs Phoenix, I think the Heat show up for this heavyweight tilt.

Pick:

• Heat +7.5 (-110); 1 unit to win 0.91 units
• NBA Betting Record: 1-1 ATS, 1-0 ML, +0.35 units