Knicks vs Heat Predictions, Odds & Player Props for Game 6 (May 12)
- The New York Knicks are 5.5-point underdogs as they try to stay alive in Game 6 of their series vs Miami
- Jalen Brunson had 38 points in 48 minutes of work in a Game 5 win, cutting New York’s series deficit to 3-2
- Check out the latest Knicks vs Heat Game 6 picks, plus injury news, betting splits and prop bets to target
It wasn’t the Garden party the Miami Heat were looking for in Game 5.
Instead, the New York Knicks clawed out a 112-103 win to avoid elimination, and now trail their Round 2 series 3-2 with the scene shifting to South Beach.
A Miami win claims their third Conference Finals berth in the East’s NBA Playoff Bracket in the last four seasons, while a New York W sets up a winner-take-all Game 7 at MSG.
Game 6 goes Friday (May 12) at 7:30pm ET from the Kaseya Center in Miami FL. You can watch the game live on ESPN.
Knicks vs Heat Game 6 Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| New York Knicks | +5.5 (-110) | +180 | O 208.5 (-110) |
| Miami Heat | -5.5 (-110) | -210 | U 208.5 (-110) |
The books are leaning on the home team to close things out, pegging the Heat as 5.5-point favourites in the NBA odds. Miami is -210 on the moneyline, an implied win probability of 67.74%.
It’s another low total of 208.5 points. These two teams have crossed that mark in three of the last four contests.
New York has yet to win in Miami in Round 2. They’re 1-3 at Kaseya overall this season. After splitting a pair of home games in the play-in, the Heat are 4-0 at home in the playoffs.
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Odds as of May 11 at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Brunson Goes Distance in Knicks Win
There was no chill for Jalen Brunson in Game 5. The first-year Knick poured in 38 points, nine rebounds and seven assists, while playing all 48 minutes in a must-win for New York.
He wasn’t alone, as backcourt mate Quentin Grimes went the distance, finishing with eight points, four boards, five dimes, two steals and two blocks, with a lot of Jimmy Butler coverage on his docket.
Jalen Brunson came up BIG in the must-win Game 5.
38 PTS
9 REB
7 ASTKnicks force a Game 6 👀#NBAPlayoffs presented by @GooglePixel_US pic.twitter.com/rgeRNtixbE
— NBA (@NBA) May 11, 2023
Julius Randle had a good night with 24 points, five rebounds and five assists, while RJ Barrett had 26 points and seven rebounds.
New York shot 49.3% from the field, including 13-for-34 from downtown, a 38.2% clip. The Knicks’ target number for success in this series has been 110 points. When they cross that total they’ve won twice. Under that number, and they’ve lost three.
The Knicks enjoyed a +13 rebounding advantage, and lived at the free throw line, attempting 40 freebies, outscoring Miami by 13.
Defensively, they held Miami to their lowest scoring output in the series.
Miami Betting Analysis
For the first time these playoffs, Jimmy Butler didn’t have the closing push to send the Heat to the NBA’s Final Four — and only the second 8-seed to reach that plateau.
It was the first game these playoffs he failed to score at least 25 points. Still, he finished with a team-high 19 points, with seven rebounds, nine assists, four steals and two blocks. Bam Adebayo had 18 points and seven boards, while Duncan Robinson had five three pointers to lead the bench mob with 17 points.
Quentin Grimes made this crucial play in his 46th minute on the court last night. Grimes had 5 assists, 2 steals, 2 blocks & spent a lot of time defending Jimmy Butler in his 48 minutes on the floor during NYK’s Game 5 win: pic.twitter.com/OYG7cRJnoW
— Ian Begley (@IanBegley) May 11, 2023
However, besides Robinson and Max Strus (4-for-10 from distance), the rest of the Heat shot just 4-for-23 from beyond the arc, a paltry 17.4% clip.
Miami’s defense helped them claw back from as many as 19 points down in the their quarter, to a 2-point deficit with under three minutes to go.
They forced 19 New York turnovers, converting them to 29 points. Of the seven playoff teams still standing (as Phoenix just got dusted Thursday night), Miami leads with 14.5 forced turnovers per game.
Knicks vs Heat Prop Bets & Predictions
After averaging 42.7 points across the final three games of the Bucks series, Butler has yet to cross the 28.5 scoring total in four games he’s played against the Knicks. Considering the low-scoring rock fights these two teams have had, I’d target him to go under.
It’s been a rough go for Randle in South Beach, fouling out in Game 4 with 20 points, after a 10-point outing in Game 3. Not a bad bet to see that trend continue.
Bonus prop: Barrett has had at least three turnovers in four of five games this series. He’s got +105 odds to turn it over three times in Game 6.
As for the matchup, the Knicks are 3-7 against the spread in their last 10 visits in Miami, and they’ve failed to cover in four of five in this series overall. Miami, meanwhile, is 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a loss.
Playing Brunson a full 48 was necessary, but he could be fatigued. With Miami’s best chance to close things out, look for them to not miss a second chance to advance.
Pick: Heat -5.5 (-110)
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Having worked in and around sports since 1997, Eric is truly a knowledgeable expert. The two-time journalism grad specializes in all things NBA and NFL. From TSN.ca to CTV's Olympic Broadcast Consortium, Eric's work has appeared in local and national publications alike.
