Minnesota Timberwolves vs Denver Nuggets Predictions, Odds & Player Props (April 10)

• Tied for first in the West, the Timberwolves and Nuggets meet in Denver on Wednesday night
• Both teams are coming off lopsided wins against lesser competition yesterday
• See the Timberwolves vs Nuggets odds, predictions, and player props for April 10 at Ball Arena

A massive game in the Western Conference playoff race goes down on Wednesday night as the Minnesota Timberwolves (55-24, 26-14 away, ATS) visit the Denver Nuggets (55-24, 32-8 home, ATS) at Ball Arena at 8:10 pm MT/10:10 pm ET. The winner will hold sole possession of top-seed in the West with just two games to play, and the importance of home-court advantage won’t be lost on either side. Denver was a perfect 8-0 at home while winning the Western Conference Championship in the 2023 postseason (including 3-0 against Minnesota in round one).

The Timberwolves vs Nuggets odds list Denver as sizable home favorites.

Timberwolves vs Nuggets Odds

Denver is -5.5 against the spread and -200 on the moneyline to win straight-up. The T-Wolves are +170 road underdogs while the total is sitting at 213.5, which is the second-lowest of the eight games in Wednesday’s NBA odds.

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Odds as of April 10 at ESPN Bet. 

If the teams finish tied for first in the standings, the Timberwolves are guaranteed to earn the #1 seed in the West in the NBA playoff bracket. The first tiebreaker is head-to-head record and, even if Denver wins tonight, they will be 2-2 against each other. The next (relevant) tiebreaker is division record, and Minnesota will finish 12-4 at worst, while Denver will finish 10-6 at best.

Minnesota has already taken two of three against Denver this season, including a 111-98 win at Ball Arena on March 29.

KAT Still Sidelined for T-Wolves?

Out since March 4 due to a knee injury, Karl-Anthony Towns (22.1 PPG, 8.4 RPG, 3.0 APG) is listed as a game-time decision in Wednesday’s NBA lineups. He is expected to play in at least one of Minnesota’s three remaining regular-season contests.

Sources: Minnesota star Karl-Anthony Towns is expected to return in one of team's final regular season games (tonight in Denver, Friday vs. Atlanta or Sunday vs. Phoenix). Towns attacked rehab and impressed T'Wolves teammates/coaches with recovery from early March torn meniscus. pic.twitter.com/9cpxa5jPid

— Shams Charania (@ShamsCharania) April 10, 2024

Minnesota has gone an impressive 12-5 straight-up in Towns’ absence (including the win at Denver). Leading scorer Anthony Edwards has averaged 26.8 PPG in those 17 games, including a monstrous 51-point outburst in a 130-121 win versus the Wizards last time out.

Thanks to an NBA-best 107.9 D-Rating, the T-Wolves sit second in the NBA in point differential (+7.0) and Net Rating (+6.8). Center Rudy Gobert has become the runaway favorite in the NBA Defensive Player of the Year odds at -2530. If (when) he wins the honor, he will become just the third player to win NBA DPOY four times, joining Dikembe Mutombo and Ben Wallace.

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Nuggets Uncharacteristically Inconsistent of Late

While Denver enters Wednesday on a two-game win streak, those victories came over the 36-43 Atlanta Hawks (142-110) and the 29-50 Utah Jazz (111-95). The last three times the Nuggets have squared off with a top-eight team from the West, they have lost (102-100 at LAC, 111-98 vs Minnesota, and 104-97 vs Phoenix).

Aaron Gordon (14.0 PPG, 6.5 RPG) missed last night’s game against the Jazz with a foot injury and, like KAT on the Minnesota side, is listed as a game-time decision for tonight’s game.

Nikola Jokic (26.4 PPG, 12.4 RPG, 9.0 APG), who has become a hyper-short -2500 favorite in the NBA MVP odds, led Denver in points (32), rebounds (13), and assists (7) again last night, though he fell short of his 26th triple-double of the season.

Denver rates in the top ten in both Offensive Rating (117.6, 7th) and Defensive Rating (112.2, eighth) and has the fourth-best Net Rating (+5.4) in the NBA as a result. Their effective field-goal percentage has slipped from a league-best 57.3% last season to 56.1% this year, which is only ninth in the league.

MIN vs DEN Player Props

NBA player props as of April 10 at DraftKings. 

Jokic leads the player props in both points (27.5 O/U) and assists (8.5 O/U) while Gobert has the highest rebound total at 13.5 O/U.

Timberwolves vs Nuggets Prediction

Whether Towns plays or not, I lean towards the T-Wolves against the spread. They have shown very little decline in KAT’s absence, and both sides are going to approach this with playoff intensity. But the bet I like more is the first-half under (103.5). Denver is playing at a markedly slower pace this season compared to last, and Minnesota’s defense (106.2 PPG) speaks for itself. With the NBA’s post-All-Star officiating taking on a decidedly more-playoff-like restraint, I don’t expect either team to spend much time in the bonus.

MIN vs DEN pick: first half under 103.5 (-110)

Sascha Paruk’s 2023-24 NBA betting record:

• 19-24 moneyline (+4.26 units)
• 24-19-2 ATS (+4.81 units)
• 0-1 over/under (-1.00 units)
• 9-15 player props (-7.17 units)
• 0-3 same-game parlay (-3.00 units)