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Minnesota Timberwolves vs Denver Nuggets Predictions, Odds & Player Props (April 10)

Sascha Paruk

by Sascha Paruk in NBA Basketball

Updated Apr 10, 2024 · 12:47 PM PDT

Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic drives to the basket against the Minnesota Timberwolves
Mar 29, 2024; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic (15) drives to the basket in the second half against the Minnesota Timberwolves at Ball Arena. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports
  • Tied for first in the West, the Timberwolves and Nuggets meet in Denver on Wednesday night
  • Both teams are coming off lopsided wins against lesser competition yesterday
  • See the Timberwolves vs Nuggets odds, predictions, and player props for April 10 at Ball Arena

A massive game in the Western Conference playoff race goes down on Wednesday night as the Minnesota Timberwolves (55-24, 26-14 away, ATS) visit the Denver Nuggets (55-24, 32-8 home, ATS) at Ball Arena at 8:10 pm MT/10:10 pm ET. The winner will hold sole possession of top-seed in the West with just two games to play, and the importance of home-court advantage won’t be lost on either side. Denver was a perfect 8-0 at home while winning the Western Conference Championship in the 2023 postseason (including 3-0 against Minnesota in round one).

The Timberwolves vs Nuggets odds list Denver as sizable home favorites.

Timberwolves vs Nuggets Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Minnesota Timberwolves +5.5 (-110) +170 Over 213.5 (-110)
Denver Nuggets -5.5 (-110) -200 Under 213.5 (-110)

Denver is -5.5 against the spread and -200 on the moneyline to win straight-up. The T-Wolves are +170 road underdogs while the total is sitting at 213.5, which is the second-lowest of the eight games in Wednesday’s NBA odds.


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Odds as of April 10 at ESPN Bet. 

If the teams finish tied for first in the standings, the Timberwolves are guaranteed to earn the #1 seed in the West in the NBA playoff bracket. The first tiebreaker is head-to-head record and, even if Denver wins tonight, they will be 2-2 against each other. The next (relevant) tiebreaker is division record, and Minnesota will finish 12-4 at worst, while Denver will finish 10-6 at best.

Minnesota has already taken two of three against Denver this season, including a 111-98 win at Ball Arena on March 29.

KAT Still Sidelined for T-Wolves?

Out since March 4 due to a knee injury, Karl-Anthony Towns (22.1 PPG, 8.4 RPG, 3.0 APG) is listed as a game-time decision in Wednesday’s NBA lineups. He is expected to play in at least one of Minnesota’s three remaining regular-season contests.


Minnesota has gone an impressive 12-5 straight-up in Towns’ absence (including the win at Denver). Leading scorer Anthony Edwards has averaged 26.8 PPG in those 17 games, including a monstrous 51-point outburst in a 130-121 win versus the Wizards last time out.

Thanks to an NBA-best 107.9 D-Rating, the T-Wolves sit second in the NBA in point differential (+7.0) and Net Rating (+6.8). Center Rudy Gobert has become the runaway favorite in the NBA Defensive Player of the Year odds at -2530. If (when) he wins the honor, he will become just the third player to win NBA DPOY four times, joining Dikembe Mutombo and Ben Wallace.

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Nuggets Uncharacteristically Inconsistent of Late

While Denver enters Wednesday on a two-game win streak, those victories came over the 36-43 Atlanta Hawks (142-110) and the 29-50 Utah Jazz (111-95). The last three times the Nuggets have squared off with a top-eight team from the West, they have lost (102-100 at LAC, 111-98 vs Minnesota, and 104-97 vs Phoenix).

Aaron Gordon (14.0 PPG, 6.5 RPG) missed last night’s game against the Jazz with a foot injury and, like KAT on the Minnesota side, is listed as a game-time decision for tonight’s game.

YouTube video

Nikola Jokic (26.4 PPG, 12.4 RPG, 9.0 APG), who has become a hyper-short -2500 favorite in the NBA MVP odds, led Denver in points (32), rebounds (13), and assists (7) again last night, though he fell short of his 26th triple-double of the season.

Denver rates in the top ten in both Offensive Rating (117.6, 7th) and Defensive Rating (112.2, eighth) and has the fourth-best Net Rating (+5.4) in the NBA as a result. Their effective field-goal percentage has slipped from a league-best 57.3% last season to 56.1% this year, which is only ninth in the league.

MIN vs DEN Player Props

Player Points Rebounds Assists Three-Pointers Made
Aaron Gordon (DEN) 13.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 5.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110) 3.5 (Ov -130 | Un -100) 0.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Anthony Edwards (MIN) 26.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120) 4.5 (Ov -140 | Un +110) 5.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120) 2.5 (Ov -105 | Un -125)
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (DEN) 10.5 (Ov -100 | Un -130) 2.5 (Ov +110 | Un -140) 2.5 (Ov +140 | Un -180) 1.5 (Ov -160 | Un +124)
Mike Conley (MIN) 10.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110) 2.5 (Ov +135 | Un -175) 5.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120) 1.5 (Ov -166 | Un +130)
Nikola Jokic (DEN) 27.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110) 12.5 (Ov -100 | Un -130) 8.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120) 1.5 (Ov +175 | Un -230)
Rudy Gobert (MIN) 13.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120) 13.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120) OFF OFF

NBA player props as of April 10 at DraftKings. 

Jokic leads the player props in both points (27.5 O/U) and assists (8.5 O/U) while Gobert has the highest rebound total at 13.5 O/U.

Timberwolves vs Nuggets Prediction

Whether Towns plays or not, I lean towards the T-Wolves against the spread. They have shown very little decline in KAT’s absence, and both sides are going to approach this with playoff intensity. But the bet I like more is the first-half under (103.5). Denver is playing at a markedly slower pace this season compared to last, and Minnesota’s defense (106.2 PPG) speaks for itself. With the NBA’s post-All-Star officiating taking on a decidedly more-playoff-like restraint, I don’t expect either team to spend much time in the bonus.

MIN vs DEN pick: first half under 103.5 (-110)

Sascha Paruk’s 2023-24 NBA betting record:

  • 19-24 moneyline (+4.26 units)
  • 24-19-2 ATS (+4.81 units)
  • 0-1 over/under (-1.00 units)
  • 9-15 player props (-7.17 units)
  • 0-3 same-game parlay (-3.00 units)
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