NBA Odds: Updated MVP, Title Futures at 1/4 Mark

We’ve always liked arriving early to the party. The hosts are usually fresher, the house is generally cleaner, and no one has double dipped in the guacamole yet. Early is better, which is why we’re sharing our NBA first-quarter odds a full week before the league reaches the actual quarter mark of the 2017-18 season.

We’ve reviewed our initial odds from October 10th with a fine-tooth comb and have updated them to reflect some surprising early-season developments. We’ve recalibrated our MVP odds to reflect Kawhi Leonard’s lingering injury; we’ve refined our NBA Championship odds to reflect the Thunder’s chemistry issues; and we’ve improved our MVP odds now that we’re pretty sure Giannis Antetokounmpo can dunk from half court. Get used to hearing a lot about the Warriors, who are still the toast of the league, and Ben Simmons, who could be the most exciting thing to happen to Philly since cheese steak.

Enough chit chat. Let’s get this party started!

TITLE AND AWARDS ODDS

Odds to Win the NBA Championship

• Golden State Warriors: 19/20
• Houston Rockets: 11/1
• Cleveland Cavaliers: 12/1
• San Antonio Spurs: 13/1
• Boston Celtics: 15/1
• Oklahoma City Thunder: 25/1
• Minnesota Timberwolves: 28/1
• Washington Wizards: 50/1
• Toronto Raptors: 66/1
• Milwaukee Bucks: 66/1
• Detroit Pistons: 75/1
• Philadelphia 76ers: 100/1
• Los Angeles Clippers: 100/1
• New Orleans Pelicans: 125/1
• Denver Nuggets: 150/1
• Memphis Grizzlies: 200/1
• Portland Trail Blazers: 200/1
• Utah Jazz: 300/1
• Charlotte Hornets: 300/1
• Los Angeles Lakers: 500/1
• Miami Heat: 500/1
• Indian Pacers: 500/1
• Orlando Magic: 500/1
• New York Knicks: 500/1
• Phoenix Suns: 500/1
• Sacramento Kings: 1000/1
• Atlanta Hawks: 1000/1
• Brooklyn Nets: 1000/1
• Dallas Mavericks: 1000/1
• Chicago Bulls: 1000/1

We can all stop worrying about the Warriors. Golden State has gone 10-1 since losing two of their first three games to begin the season. The laissez faire approach evident in those first two losses has given way to a full-throttle, pedal-to-the-metal attack that has them averaging 119.6 points per game and leading the league in pace, field-goal percentage, three-point percentage, true shooting percentage, assist ratio, and plus/minus.

Their defense isn’t half bad either. Golden State ranks in the top ten in defensive rating and opponent field-goal percentage, and Kevin Durant is swatting every shot within a three-mile radius of the rim. Put it all together and you have a scary efficient team that’s a nightmare on both sides of the ball.

If any team has the look of a Warrior slayer (and that’s a big if), it’s the Rockets. Houston is off to its best start in franchise history and has done a masterful job of integrating Clint Capela into the offense. PJ Tucker and Luc Mbah a Moute give the team some much needed grit n’ grind off the bench, and may allow the Rockets to disrupt the Warriors just enough to steal a game in the playoffs.

NBA Finals Match-Ups

• Cavaliers vs. Warriors: 2/1
• Celtics vs. Warriors: 9/2
• Cavaliers vs. Rockets: 7/1
• Celtics vs. Thunder: 9/1
• Wizards vs. Rockets: 11/1
• Cavaliers vs. Spurs: 12/1
• Celtics vs. Rockets: 30/1
• Raptors vs. Warriors: 50/1
• Pistons vs. Warriors: 100/1
• Cavalaiers vs. Timberwolves: 1000/1
• FIELD: 25/1

It’s beginning to look like déjà vu all over again as Golden State and Cleveland hurtle towards their fourth consecutive Finals showdown. Yes, the Cavs have stunk more than a garbage scowl at high noon, but we know better than to discount any team led by LeBron James, especially given his early season dominance. LBJ has already gone off for 57 points in a victory over the Wizards, and scored 30-plus points five times this season. He looks like a player just entering his prime, rather than one who has already played in 1,075 regular-season games. Tristan Thompson and Isaiah Thomas will eventually return, and once they do, LeBron will have all the help he needs to reach his eighth straight Finals.

Odds to Win MVP

• Giannis Antetekoumnpo (Bucks): 7/2
• Kyrie Irving (Celtics): 9/2
• James Harden (Rockets): 7/1
• DeMarcus Cousins (Pelicans): 9/1
• LeBron James (Cavaliers): 10/1
• Kristaps Porzingis (Knicks): 15/1
• Kevin Durant (Warriors): 15/1
• Anthony Davis (Pelicans): 22/1
• Russell Westbrook (Thunder): 25/1
• Ben Simmons (76ers): 30/1
• FIELD: 20/1

We’ll be the first to admit that we whiffed by picking Kawhi Leonard as our 2017-18 NBA MVP. We grossly underestimated the extent of his injury and failed to take into consideration the Spurs’ notoriously conservative approach to player rehabilitation. Leonard’s absence has opened the door for a host of contenders including Giannis Antetekoumnpo, who is leading the NBA in scoring despite having a jump shot that’s more broken than Donald Trump’s campaign promises.

Kyrie Irving is also near the front of the pack after leading the Celtics to 11 straight victories sans Gordon Hayward. Not only is he averaging 20.3 points and 5.2 assists per game, but he’s also playing the best defense of his career. Granted, any defense would be the best defense of his career, but Uncle Drew is really trying!

Don’t sleep on James Harden. (Seriously, don’t do it. His beard is super itchy.) Harden is averaging over 29 points per game for the third consecutive season and is tops in assists. His dimes may go down with the return of Chris Paul, but his scoring and efficiency should continue to rise as they pick and roll opponents into submission.

STATISTICAL ODDS

Odds to Lead the NBA in Scoring

• Giannis Antetekoumnpo (Bucks): 4/1
• James Harden (Rockets): 5/1
• Kristaps Porzingis (Knicks): 6/1
• DeMarcus Cousins (Pelicans): 8/1
• Anthony Davis (Pelicans): 12/1
• LeBron James (Cavaliers): 15/1
• DeMar DeRozan (Raptors):17/1
• Kevin Durant (Warriors): 20/1
• Russell Westbrook (Thunder): 25/1
• Victor Oladipo (Pacers): 30/1
• FIELD: 15/1

Yup, this guy again. Antetokounmpo has increased his scoring average in each of his first five seasons, and there’s no reason to think he’s done yet. The Greek Freak leads the NBA in scoring at 31.3 points per game and has already recorded a pair of 40-point performances against the Cavs and Blazers.

The real surprise has been the emergence of Victor Oladipo, who is averaging a career-high 23.4 points per game and is leading the league in breakaway 360s. Yes, we’ve decided that’s officially a stat. The Pacers aren’t going anywhere this season, but at least Oladipo has made their aimless meanderings watchable for the first time in years.

Odds to Lead the NBA in Assists

• Russell Westbrook (Thunder): 9/2
• Chris Paul (Rockets): 5/1
• John Wall (Wizards): 6/1
• Lonzo Ball (Lakers): 7/1
• LeBron James (Cavaliers): 9/1
• Ben Simmons (76ers): 12/1
• Draymond Green (Warriors): 15/1
• James Harden (Rockets): 25/1
• FIELD: 11/1

We chose Russell Westbrook in our preseason poll and we’re sticking to our guns. The reigning MVP is third in the league in assists at 9.8 dimes per game, but that should change soon once Chris Paul returns to action and cuts into Harden’s totals.

An assist title would be another feather in Westbrook’s cap, but it may not be a positive development for the Thunder. There are dozens of point guards out there who can meekly defer to teammates, but there are only a few who can make seven-footers cower in fear when they knife down the lane. Westbrook is one of them, and the Thunder need him back in attack mode pronto.

Odds to Win Rookie of the Year

• Ben Simmons (76ers): 1/1
• Lauri Markkanen (Bulls): 9/1
• Jayson Tatum (Celtics): 11/1
• Kyle Kuzma (Lakers): 12/1
• Lonzo Ball (Lakers): 15/1
• Dennis Smith Jr. (Mavericks): 18/1
• John Collins (Hawks): 22/1
• Donovan Mitchell (Jazz): 28/1
• De’Aaron Fox (Kings): 33/1
• Mike James (Suns): 50/1
• FIELD: 20/1

We’re only at the quarter mark of the season and Ben Simmons has already gone from chasing rookies to chasing history. The 6’10” point forward leads all first-year players in minutes, points, rebounds, and assists, and recently became the first rookie since Oscar Robertson to record two triple-doubles in his first nine games. That’s pretty exclusive company, but if you’re looking for a more modern comparison you needn’t look any further than Magic Johnson. Simmons has a similar frame and a similar game to Johnson, and is nearly as good at leading the break and picking apart defenses with his superior vision and court awareness. Simmons’ jump shot is still a work in progress, but he has all the makings of a transformative player and perennial All-Star.

Odds to Win Sixth Man of the Year

• Jordan Clarkson (Lakers): 3/1
• Eric Gordon (Rockets): 7/2
• Tyreke Evans (Grizzlies): 5/1
• Lou Williams (Clippers): 7/1
• Andre Iguodala (Warriors): 10/1
• Marcus Smart (Celtics): 12/1
• Malcolm Brogdon (Bucks): 20/1
• FIELD: 39/1

Jordan Clarkson has made the most of his demotion to the bench by averaging 15.5 points, 2.4 rebounds, and 2.7 assists per game, while shooting 51-percent from the field and 40-percent from deep. His instant offense has kept the Lakers in games all season long and has given Luke Walton a consistent threat on those nights when Lonzo Ball can’t hit the broadside of a barn.

Look out for Eric Gordon as well. The reigning Sixth Man of the Year is currently averaging a career-high 22.9 points per game in 12 starts with the Rockets, but he’ll likely return to the bench once Paul comes back. To be eligible for the award, a player must come off the pine in more games than he starts.

Odds to Win Most Improved Player

• Aaron Gordon (Magic): 2/1
• Victor Oladipo (Pacers): 4/1
• Larry Nance Jr. (Lakers): 8/1
• Otto Porter Jr. (Wizards): 10/1
• Tobias Harris (Pistons): 12/1
• Jonathan Simmons (Magic): 16/1
• Brandon Ingram (Lakers): 20/1
• Bobby Portis (Bulls): 33/1
• FIELD: 19/1

It seems only fitting that the NBA’s biggest leaper has made the biggest leap in production this season. Aaron Gordon has increased his scoring average from 12.7 to 18.3 points per game, while also upping his rebounding total from 5.1 to 7.9 boards. The real key to Gordon’s improvement has been his vastly improved marksmanship as the 22-year-old is nailing 52-percent of his threes. His three-point percentage will eventually come back to earth, but even the threat of a three-pointer is enough to keep offenses honest and open up lanes for his thunderous slams.

ODDS ON THE UNFORTUNATES

Next Coach Fired

• Steve Clifford (Hornets): 7/2
• Nate McMillan (Pacers) 4/1
• Fred Hoiberg (Bulls): 5/1
• Alvin Gentry (Pelicans): 7/1
• Dwane Casey (Raptors): 10/1
• Terry Stotts (Trail Blazers): 15/1
• Kenny Atkinson (nets): 20/1
• Jeff Hornacek (Knicks): 25/1
• Doc Rivers (Clippers): 50/1
• Frank Vogel (Magic): 75/1
• FIELD: 75/1

Well, that didn’t take long. The Suns gave Earl Watson the ol’ heave-ho just three games into the season after a pair of historically lop-sided losses. The next coach to join Watson in the bread lines will likely be Hornets head honcho Steve Clifford, who has Charlotte performing well below expectations. Granted, Clifford has been without Nicolas Batum all season long, but Kemba Walker, Dwight Howard and a handful of scrubs from the local Y should be enough to have the Hornets playing .500 ball in the East.

Odds to Finish with NBA’s Worst Record

• Chicago Bulls: 5/2
• Atlanta Hawks: 7/2
• Phoenix Suns: 5/1
• Dallas Mavericks: 9/1
• Brooklyn Nets: 10/1
• Sacramento Kings: 12/1
• New York Knicks: 20/1
• FIELD: 100/1

The Bulls have everything you look for in a bottom dweller: internal strife, G-League talent, and a thinly veiled desire to land the top pick in the draft. They may win a few games here and there, but make no mistake about it, Chicago has been built to tank.

Next Player Traded

• Jahlil Okafor (76ers): 1/1
• Greg Monroe (Suns): 4/1
• Nikola Mirotic (Bulls): 7/1
• Kenneth Faried (Nuggets): 15/1
• Mario Hezonja (Magic): 25/1
• DeMarcus Cousins (Pelicans): 50/1
• FIELD: 8/1

It’s just a matter of when, not if, Jahlil Okafor will be shipped out of Philly. The 22-year-old has been a permanent fixture on the trade block for the past two seasons and could soon be dealt to the Bulls or Hawks. Both teams are badly in need of NBA-calibre talent and could put Okafor to good use as the first big off the bench.

Greg Monroe could also be on the move soon after coming to Phoenix in the Eric Bledsoe trade. The 6’11” pivot still has plenty left in the tank, but makes no sense in Phoenix with Tyson Chandler, Alex Len and Alan Williams all available to man the middle. Some team will likely take a chance on him because of his expiring contract, but Monroe is unlikely to be part of their long-term plans.

BECAUSE-WE-NEED-CLICKS ODDS

Odds on LeBron James’ 2018-19 Team

• Los Angeles Lakers: 2/1
• Cleveland Cavaliers: 5/2
• Los Angeles Clippers: 9/2
• FIELD: 4/1

James has said that he won’t consider his next career move until the 2017-18 season comes to an end, but that certainly hasn’t stopped him from dropping plenty of hints. The King kicked the rumor mill into overdrive in mid July, when he dropped everything to attend Lonzo Ball’s second Summer League game. He’s since wished Ball a happy birthday on Twitter, and has gone out of his way to praise him. “I think he’s going to be a really good point guard in our league, probably a great point guard,” he recently told reporters. “If he continues to work on his craft, which it seems like he does … [the Lakers] got a good one.”

LeBron to the Lakers is far from a done deal, but his infatuation with Ball’s game is a very positive sign for L.A. moving forward.

Who to Record More Triple-Doubles

• Ben Simmons: 1/2
• Lonzo Ball: 2/1

Ben Simmons may only be four inches taller than Lonzo Ball, but he’s already head and shoulders above his West Coast rival. In addition to having two triple-doubles to Ball’s one, Simmons has also been the most important player on the Sixers thanks to his ability to score and create for others. Ball, meanwhile, has already been benched twice during crunch time in close games against the Raptors and the Suns. Until he proves he can close, Ball will continue to come up short to Philly’s new Fresh Prince.