- Milwaukee Bucks given top win percentage odds for upcoming NBA season
- Reigning NBA Champion Lakers are second; Cleveland Cavaliers are last
- We look at the win total percentage odds, and tell you which ones we like best
Keeping with the “new normal” theme, even NBA betting is being taken for a loop.
Because of the reduced 72-game schedule — courtesy of COVID-19 — and the fact the league is only releasing the first 36 games, in part to fill in any potential postponements in the first half of the year into the second half, oddsmakers are going by win total percentage.
That’s a change from the usual win totals, and it may be a little jarring to adjust. That’s what we’re here for: to break these down and find the best bets.
NBA Win Total Odds
|Team||Total Win Percentage||Over Odds||Under Odds|
|Golden State Warriors||54.5||-106||-118|
|Los Angeles Clippers||65.5||-109||-114|
|Los Angeles Lakers||66.5||-114||-109|
|New Orleans Pelicans||48.5||-113||-110|
|New York Knicks||31.5||+108||-125|
|Oklahoma City Thunder||35.5||+108||-134|
|Portland Trail Blazers||56.5||-109||-114|
|San Antonio Spurs||42.5||-110||-113|
Odds from DraftKings taken on November 25
If you count the table and notice just 29 teams, it’s not by chance. Missing from action are the Houston Rockets, who are in such major limbo even sportsbooks don’t know what to do with them. While we wait to see how that plays out, let’s look at some notable Win Total odds, starting with the team projected to lead the league once again in regular season W’s.
Fear The Dear Season
With back-to-back MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo entering the final season of what could be a doomsday scenario, the Milwaukee Bucks are still topping the charts, which would be a third straight season they’ve led the league in regular season wins.
The .685 winning percentage is a dip from the last two seasons, where they’ve gone .767 last year and .732 in 2018-19. It’s hard enough to stay at a 75% win clip and even harder when you overhaul your roster in the hopes your best player signs a supermax.
Good luck scoring on the Bucks next season with this defensive lineup:
PG – Jrue Holiday
SG – Torrey Craig
SF – Khris Middleton
PF – Giannis Antetokounmpo
C – Brook Lopez
— Jake Weinbach (@WeinbachNBA) November 22, 2020
That’s exactly what Milwaukee did, shipping out regulars George Hill, Eric Bledsoe, Wesley Matthews, Robin Lopez, Marvin Williams and Kyle Korver. Incoming are Jrue Holiday, DJ Augustin, Bobby Portis, Bryn Forbes, Torrey Craig.
The good: Holiday is easily the best player in this multi-swap, and his presence alone will allow Khris Middleton to take that 3,000 pound pressure gorilla off his back when the team needs additional support beyond Giannis.
What do you do after winning BACK TO BACK league MVP’s? 🤔
GET EVEN BETTER 🗣
— Overtime (@overtime) November 25, 2020
The bad: a botched sign-and-trade that was supposed to bring them stud Bogdan Bogdanovic hurts, and the rest of the pieces that Milwaukee now has are good, but not great. If that sounds familiar, unless Holiday all-stars out, it’s because it is.
Thankfully, that’s postseason talk. With Giannis at the helm and at the peak of his athletic powers (he averaged 29.5 points, 13.6 rebounds and 5.3 assists on 55.3% shooting in under 31 minutes a game last year), the regular season wins will continue to come easy.
Cleveland Doesn’t Rock
At the other end of the spectrum, it’s hard times in the land that LeBron left (twice). Cleveland was one of four teams last season that failed to break the .300 win barrier, and they lost one of their few best players in Tristan Thompson.
— Cleveland Cavaliers (@cavs) November 21, 2020
Kevin Love must be dying to resurrect his career elsewhere. Assuming he’s on the outs, a mish-mash of guys with experience like Andre Drummond, JaVale McGee, Dante Exum, Larry Nance Jr and Cedi Osman are left to help nurture and develop Collin Sexton, Darius Garland, Kevin Porter and this year’s top draft pick Isaac Okoro.
It’s bleak in Cleveland, and expect them to plunge under that 30.5 total.
The LA Story
Fresh of their NBA title, which was literally just a month ago, the Los Angeles Lakers have been given a generous total of 66.5. Total that up over a 72-game slate, and the Lakers would need to go 48-24 to hit the over.
how the Lakers pulling up next season 🔥 pic.twitter.com/9rLDpZtNja
— LakeShowYo (@LakeShowYo) November 25, 2020
Even if I do believe they will start out little sluggish, barring injury, there’s literally no way Los Angeles doesn’t win 50 games this year.
James and Anthony Davis are the best duo in the league, and Rob Pelinka went to town on the offseason, putting together a roster that can compete all year without taxing their superstars.
The Clippers are right behind their Staples Center bros at 65.5. Their regular season means something, but like the Bucks, their demon-slaying will happen after Game 72.
— Stephen A Smith (@stephenasmith) November 20, 2020
Rumors that Kawhi Leonard’s load management was a sticking point won’t change, as Leonard is likely in this mode for the rest of his career. Paul George needs a renaissance season to remind everyone he was once an MVP candidate. But even with chemistry issues, this team mashed in the West. They’re just more talented than most in the regular season.
Who know who’s intriguing? The Golden State Warriors. They aren’t winning a title without Klay Thompson, but with Steph Curry back and at least a serviceable roster with Draymond Green, Kelly Oubre and second overall pick James Wiseman flanking him, GState is better equipped to handle a the regular season than they were last year, when they collapsed to the worst winning percentage in the league (.231).
They’d need to go 40-32 to crack the over, and I think they just fall short.
On the team that has had the best offseason:
The Portland Trail Blazers pic.twitter.com/U6G2xuX77M
— Bobby Marks (@BobbyMarks42) November 23, 2020
But a team that should hit 41 wins this year with some ease are the Portland Trail Blazers. Lauded as having one of the top offseasons in the NBA, Dame Lillard and CJ McCollum have some running mates. Jusuf Nurkic, Rodney Hood and Robert Covington round out a solid top five, while ‘Melo, Gary Trent, Zach Collins, Enes Canter, Harry Giles and Derrick Jones Jr give them interchangeable parts to play any style.
Fred VanVleet’s reported $85M contract with the Raptors is the largest total value for any undrafted player in NBA history.
A record-breaking deal 💰 pic.twitter.com/q7wyHSGWQZ
— ESPN (@espn) November 21, 2020
And sprinkle some on the Toronto Raptors. Do you know that the only team North of the border has played better than .600 basketball in the last five seasons, and haven’t dipped below their projected threshold since the 2012-13 year? That’s when they were still picking up the pieces after losing Chris Bosh.
This team has been playing at a high clip for a long time. Losing Serge Ibaka and Marc Gasol might hurt a bit, but locking up Fred Vanvleet keeps a a serious core intact with talent developing in the TO pipeline. They crush 57.5 with wins to spare.