Over/Under Dollar Value of Largest Contract in 2019 NBA Free Agency Set at $195.5 Million; Odds Favor the Under

• Kevin Durant and Kemba Walker are the only free agents that can sign contracts over $200 million
• Jimmy Butler, Khris Middleton, and Tobias Harris are among players that could earn up to $190 million
• NBA free agency kicks off Sunday, June 30th at 6:00 p.m.

We’re a few sleeps away from no sleep for NBA fans: free agency is upon us.

There’s excitement, speculation, and anticipation with a lot of money to be doled out at 6:00 p.m. on June 30th.

Online sportsbooks anticipate some big dollar figures, but they’ve drawn a pretty good line as to where the figure will likely stop at.

How Much Will the Largest Deal in NBA Free Agency Be Worth?

Odds taken 06/27/19.

Currently only two players have a chance to cross that $195.5 million threshold, so let’s find out if taking the over is a  winning bet.

Durant, Walker in Line for Mega Deals

Hit an elite level over the past three seasons (NBA MVP, Defensive MVP or one of 15 players named to an all-NBA team) and be in the league at least eight years and you qualify for a supermax. Only four players have currently been blessed enough to gobble up 35% of a team’s cap space in that time: Steph Curry, James Harden, Russell Westbrook, and (gulp) John Wall.

https://twitter.com/KnickFilmSchool/status/1143524833671680000

Kevin Durant and Kemba Walker are in line for that payday this year, along with Damian Lillard and Giannis Antetokounmpo, but for this betting purpose, let’s nullify the last two as those are going to be extensions.

Here are the options for Kemba Walker as he enters free agency:

Super max- 5 years/$221M

Bird (w/CHA)- 5 years/$190M

Team w/room- 4 years/$141M

Difference between the super max and signing with a new team is $80M.

— Bobby Marks (@BobbyMarks42) May 23, 2019

If Durant and Walker remain with the Warriors and Hornets, respectively, then they can sign five-year deals in excess of $221 million dollars. If they decide to go anywhere else, they could only sign four-year pacts, Durant’s total coming in now at $160 million, Walker around $140 million.

2016-2018 Largest Free Agent Signings (By Total Worth)

Injuries, Circumstance Make for a Difficult Bet

As you may have heard, Durant’s Achilles went snap-crackle-pop in Game 5 of the NBA Finals , and he’s out for the entire 2019-20 season. It was widely speculated he was on the move from Oakland anyways, but coming off a devastating injury like this – where the list of successful recoveries starts and ends with Dominique Wilkins – this contract could be the largest KD ever signs in his career.

"Kevin Durant's relationship with the Warriors, the idea that he's going to go back there, that's difficult for me to see. … Everybody's running for cover right now. He got bad advice, bottom line." — @RicBucher pic.twitter.com/zpaECrhTPV

— UNDISPUTED (@undisputed) June 21, 2019

Only problem is, there appears to be a split between he and his organization, especially since the narrative has formed that he was rushed back by the Warriors as they were getting blasted 3-1 in the Finals with the Raptors, and that led to one of the worst injuries a pro athlete can suffer.

Chris Forsberg says Kemba Walker is, "sort of like Kyrie, without the headaches." pic.twitter.com/gax5pZTjOi

— Celtics on NBC Sports Boston (@NBCSCeltics) June 26, 2019

As for Walker, he’s on a team that is going nowhere fast. Michael Jordan and company didn’t hit restart last year, when they could have dealt Walker, and now are likely forced to supermax him out and stay mired in battle-for-eighth-seed-hell or lose him and eat a loss of their only true asset. It’s just been reported too that Boston is hot on the heels of the shot-making star.

What’s the Best Bet?

There’s a crush of players like Jimmy Butler, Kawhi Leonard, Kyrie Irving, Khris Middleton, and Tobias Harris that can re-sign with their clubs at max money, but land at just $190 million. Most, if not all, are likely taking less money elsewhere, while Leonard is rumored to be doing a 1-and-1 in TO.

I can’t see Durant making a commitment to the Dubs, and Walker is going to be invited to several franchises that can offer him something that he hasn’t seen since his days at UConn: a winning environment, and a chance to compete for a title with him as a key piece.

Pick: Under $195.5 million (-150)